This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Conference season is now in full swing, with many notable matchups on Saturday's slate. Steve Peralta previews some of the action and brings you his best bets for the evening.
Xavier at 
Villanova
Xavier is coming off its best performance of the season, a 10-point victory over Connecticut. Sometimes these kinds of wins are outliers, but Xavier has been performing at a high level since the end of November, suggesting the big win was no fluke. Xavier is now riding an eight-game win streak, collecting five quality victories along the way, defeating teams such as West Virginia, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, and now UConn.
Xavier's high-powered offense has proven to be unstoppable over the past month. The Musketeers have scored 73-plus points in nine consecutive games, topping 80 points in seven of them. Xavier does most of its damage with outstanding shooting and teamwork. They're making over 40 percent of shot attempts from behind the arc and have the seventh-highest effective field goal percentage among all D1 teams, per KenPom. Xavier also has the third-highest assist rate in the country, so this is an unselfish group that is less prone to inconsistent scoring since it doesn't rely on just one or two players.
Unlike Xavier, Villanova hasn't played well in its games against quality opponents. The Wildcats recently played at Connecticut, losing by eight points before losing a home game to Marquette. Overall, Villanova has had seven opportunities to win a Quad 1 or Quad 2 game, per KenPom, and the Wildcats lost all but one of them, a home win against Oklahoma on December 3. The Wildcats have been able to pad the win column with games against easier competition, but their inability to consistently play in close games against better competition leads me to believe they'll have trouble against Xavier.
All in all, Xavier is the better team. They rank higher in adjusted efficiency on both ends of the court and have a much better resume up to this point in the season. Road games are never a given, but Xavier has already won all three of its true road games this season, seemingly unfazed by hostile environments. I'll take the points in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Xavier +2.5
Syracuse at 
Virginia
Syracuse has been playing its best basketball of the season, winning seven of its last eight games. The season was in doubt at the end of November when its record was 3-4, but Syracuse has since turned its season around. The only blemish over the past month was a two-point road loss to an upstart Pittsburgh team, an outcome that doesn't look too bad considering how well Pittsburgh is playing. The Orange have now scored at least 70 points in seven consecutive games, including three against ACC opponents during that span.
In contrast, Virginia was in great shape at the beginning of the season, starting with a perfect 8-0 record while securing wins over Baylor, Illinois and Michigan, but it has since hit a few bumps in the road. The Cavaliers have lost three of their last five games, two of them to ACC opponents. Virginia lost to good teams, so things look fine long-term, but it's been underachieving for a lengthy amount of time. In fact, Virginia has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last nine games, further underscoring this point.
Virginia prides itself on defense and slows the game down as much as possible, so a low-scoring game is expected, just like any other Virginia game. Covering a double-digit spread against a conference opponent is tough for any team, and it's even tougher in a slow-paced game with fewer possessions. The Orange might not win Saturday's game, but ultimately I'm betting they'll make the Cavaliers work hard for the victory. I'll take the large spread in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Syracuse +11
Arkansas at 
Auburn
Auburn has won with its defense for most of the season, but it hasn't been quite as stout over the past few weeks. Since Dec. 10, Auburn allowed 74-plus points to Memphis, USC and Georgia, all three of which rank below Arkansas in offensive adjusted efficiency. In losses to the former two opponents, Auburn scored over 70 points in both games, but it wasn't enough to overcome its leaky defense.
Arkansas, meanwhile, has been surging offensively over the past month. The Razorbacks have scored 74-plus points in four of their last five games, including an 88-point performance over Oklahoma, a team with a respectable defense. Following that game, Arkansas put up 76 points against Bradley, another team with a strong defense, one that doesn't rank too far from Auburn in adjusted efficiency. Given its recent string of performances, and those from earlier in the season as well, Arkansas is more than capable of putting up a similar number against Auburn.
Regardless of how the defenses perform in this matchup, we have a good shot at a high-scoring game thanks to each team's style of play. Both teams love to run, with Arkansas ranking No. 51 in fastest adjusted tempo and Auburn ranking No. 84 in offensive tempo, per KenPom. This game will likely be close, and I'm betting that will help the scoring escalate in a fast-paced game. I'm on the over in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 140
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Xavier +2.5
- Syracuse +11
- Arkansas at Auburn - Over 140
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the College Basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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