This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
On Thursday's college hoops slate, I'm aiming for a few games tipping off in the western part of the country. Here are my predictions for some Pac-12 After Dark action.
Washington 
at California 
Washington is off to a rough start in league play, falling to a 2-4 record after losing at UCLA this past Sunday. The Huskies looked superb in their victories over Xavier and Gonzaga earlier in the year, but they haven't looked nearly as sharp over the past month, especially on the road. Washington has now lost three of four true road games this season, with the one win coming in double overtime at Seattle, 100-99.
California has also stumbled out of the Pac-12 gates, now sporting a 2-4 record after losing at Oregon this past Saturday. Before the loss, California was coming off its most impressive game of the season, an 82-78 victory over Colorado. Even though the overall record is ugly at 6-11, the Golden Bears have still had a few other positive moments, like when they defeated Santa Clara in December and UCLA earlier this month.
The Golden Bears have a few factors going for them that should help them defend home court on Thursday.
First, California is strong on the glass, one of the best rebounding teams in the Pac-12 since league play started, ranking second in the conference in defensive rebounding and fifth in offensive rebounding. The latter will likely yield additional put-back opportunities, as Washington hasn't been very effective at securing defensive boards throughout the season, ranking 224th in defensive rebounding percentage. The other important area where the Golden Bears are playing well is turnovers. They were committing turnovers close to the D1 average earlier in the year, but they have since improved by a few ticks, recording the fourth-best offensive turnover percentage in the conference during league play.
It's not easy backing a team like California when looking at early season results, but the Golden Bears have gradually played better over the past couple of months, giving them a positive trajectory. Back on November 22nd, California was ranked 191st on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, and now they've worked their way up to 129th. The defense may let us down, but I'm betting the Golden Bears will ultimately score enough points to get the job done. I'm taking the home team in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: California -1
Oregon 
at Colorado
Players come and go, and yet one constant remains for Oregon - head coach Dana Altman. To no one's surprise, the Ducks now sit in first place in the Pac-12 at 5-0, the only team without a conference loss. Oregon dropped back-to-back games in late-November but caught fire ever since. The Ducks have now won nine of their last 10 games, including a six-game win streak entering Thursday. Real-world victories are nice, but what's perhaps more revealing is that Oregon continually outperforms market expectations, covering the spread in eight of its last 11 games. The Ducks are on a hot streak any way you look at it.
Colorado, in contrast, has been out of sorts lately. The Buffaloes were playing like a Pac-12 contender just a few weeks ago, but they have since dropped three of their last four conference games. And the potentially more alarming note is the fact that Colorado is 0-5-1 against the spread in its last six games. Not a positive direction.
Colorado's biggest problem has been the lack of scoring. For the whole season, the Buffaloes rank 38th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and yet during the conference season they have the second-worst offensive efficiency rating in the Pac-12. And the problem extends to other categories as well. Colorado ranks in the bottom four of the league in effective field goal percentage, offensive turnover percentage, and offensive rebounding percentage. At the same time, Oregon sits at the other end of the charts. The Ducks rank in the top three of the league in nearly every important offensive category: efficiency, turnover percentage, offensive rebounding, effective field goal percentage, and free-throw percentage.
Riding a road team can be a tricky endeavor, but with the way Oregon is playing, I like the Ducks' chances of staying in the game. Colorado put up impressive stats earlier in the year, and beating up on Miami was a nice moment, but since then it hasn't come close to playing at the same level. I'm going with the Ducks in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Oregon +6.5
Washington State 
at Stanford 
The Cougars are fresh off their signature victory of the season, a 73-70 home win over Arizona. We can't diminish the accomplishment, although Washington State has played like a different team at home, where it has just one loss all season. In comparison, the Cougars have lost four of six games outside the state of Washington, making them much harder to trust when they travel, which is exactly what they're doing for their next two conference games.
The Cardinal, meanwhile, started league play with great success, jumping out to a 4-2 record, tied for second place in the Pac-12. Not to be outdone by its guest on Thursday, Stanford also defeated the mighty Arizona Wildcats, giving both teams much-needed confidence as they enter the heart of the conference season. The Cardinal also defeated Utah in its most recent game, giving them two wins over two teams that are intent on making the NCAA tournament.
Stacking these teams against each other, they both appear evenly matched at first glance, however, a closer look reveals one team is playing decisively better than the other.
The Cardinal are scoring points at a much higher clip compared to earlier in the year, posting the fourth-highest offensive efficiency rating in the Pac-12 during conference play, while also topping the league in effective field goal percentage and three-point field goal percentage. And on a similar note, the Cougars played good defense earlier in the year but have since softened up against league foes, ranking ninth in defensive efficiency in the Pac-12.
Additionally, Stanford is also playing better on defense in recent games, logging the sixth-best defensive efficiency rating in the Pac-12 since the conference season started. In the same period, Washington State ranks seventh in offensive efficiency in the Pac-12, which is not awful but again below the level of Stanford's recent defensive efforts.
All things considered, I have to take the better offensive team at home. Earlier in the year, it was harder to trust Stanford's defense would hold up, but it's played better recently, so I like its chances of winning. I'm laying the points with the Cardinal in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Stanford -3
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- California -1
- Oregon +6.5
- Stanford -3
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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