NCAA Tournament Preview: West Region

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It's easy to overlook the West region considering the top three teams in the country are elsewhere, but this section sure isn't lacking in brand names, as top-seed UNC made the National Championship two years ago while third-seed Baylor won it all in 2021. One thing we are lacking in this region is conference tournament champions, as outside of the 11-16 seeds, fifth-seeded Saint Mary's is the lone team that comes in on the heels of taking home hardware, having defeated Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament final. We also could see this region not play true to its seeds, as ninth-seeded Michigan State, 10th-seeded Nevada and 11th-seeded New Mexico are all favored over their lower seeded opponents.

THE FAVORITES

No. 1 North Carolina - The Tar Heels won the ACC regular season title in impressive fashion, going 17-3 after starting conference play 9-0 and ultimately lost to red hot N.C. State squad in the ACC Tournament championship. RJ Davis led the team with 21.4 ppg and Armando Bacot averaged a double-double (14.1 points and 10.2 rebounds). Both were an integral part of UNC's National Championship runner-up team in 2022.

No. 2 Arizona - Although the Wildcats looked like a one seed for much of the season, a pair of surprising late season losses to USC in the regular season finale and to Oregon in the conference tournament semis bumped them down a seed line. Speaking of players with experience in the national championship game, former Tar Heel Caleb Love led Arizona with 18.1 ppg and defensive specialist Keshad Johnson was a key player in San Diego State's run last year.

No. 3 Baylor - The Bears enter this year's tournament in a similar position to last year as a 10-loss, three seed, although this squad is almost entirely different. This team gets its scoring from a variety of players, as there are six guys averaging double digits. That's highlighted by stud freshman wing Ja'Kobe Walter (14.2 ppg), a projected lottery pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. Point guard RayJ Dennis runs the offense efficiently with his 6.8 assists per game. 

No. 4 Alabama - It has been an up-and-down year for Nate Oats' team, as a tough non-conference schedule led to a 6-5 start before it righted the ship by winning 10 of its next 11 games. Still, the Crimson Tide struggled down the stretch and lost badly in the first round of the SEC Tournament. Senior point guard Mark Sears can really fill it up, averaging 21.1 ppg while shooting 43 percent from deep.

CINDERELLA WATCH

No. 11 New Mexico - Richard Pitino's squad is going dancing for the first time in his third year at the helm of the Lobos after punching a ticket by defeating San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference Tournament final. This is an experienced group that starts three seniors, including Jaelen House (16.1 ppg) and Jamal Mashburn (14.4 ppg). Entering the tournament 23rd in KenPom's team ratings, New Mexico feels a bit under-seeded. 

No. 12 Grand Canyon - I'll continue by highlighting another team in the Southwest, as the Antelopes went an impressive 29-4 and had a quality win over San Diego State in December. This is the third time in four years that Bryce Drew's squad has won the WAC Tournament and his best team yet. Senior wing Tyon Grant-Foster paced the team by averaging 19.8 points and six boards. Grand Canyon could be the most dangerous 12+ seed in the tournament. 

BIGGEST BUST

No. 4 Alabama - I'm not going to go as far as calling for 13 seed Charleston to pull off the upset, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen. Either way, this doesn't seem like a team that's going to make a deep run, as the Crimson Tide rank a lowly 112th in defensive efficiency (per KenPom) and lost by double-digits in the first round of the SEC Tournament to Florida. If Alabama is able to get through to the Round of 32, the winner of Saint Mary's/Grand Canyon will be a difficult out. 

FIRST-ROUND UPSET

No. 12 Grand Canyon over No. 5 Saint Mary's - Randy Bennett has had some good teams over the years, but he's only 5-9 in the NCAA Tournament. The Gaels lost just one game in WCC play, but the conference was down significantly this year, and they went just 9-6 in non-conference play. Grand Canyon does an excellent job of getting to the rim and drawing fouls, which could expose a Saint Mary's rotation that only went six-deep in the WCC Tournament finale against Gonzaga.

PLAYER TO WATCH

PJ Hall, C, Clemson - I have yet to talk about the Tigers, so here's an opportunity to highlight the team's star center, who averaged 18.8 points, 6.7 boards and 1.6 blocks this season. He's not just your typical back to the basket 6-10 big, as he averaged 1.5 made threes per game and also shot 58 percent from inside the arc. In Clemson's victory over UNC last month, Hall put up 25 points and nine boards despite only playing 27 minutes due to foul trouble.

SWEET 16 PICKS

No. 1 North Carolina - It would be a surprise for UNC not to at least reach the Sweet 16, but a potential Round of 32 matchup against the Tom Izzo-led Spartans would be intriguing. After all, Michigan State has had close losses to Purdue (twice) and Arizona. The Tar Heels would much rather find themselves in a meeting with Mississippi State, a team that enters the tournament having lost five of its last seven.

No. 2 Arizona - The Wildcats were upset in the first round last year but draw an easier matchup this time around against Long Beach State, who finished fifth in the Big West regular season standings. I imagine a matchup with an experienced Nevada team will follow, but Steve Alford's squad is at a talent disadvantage and will have a hard time stopping 7-footer, Oumar Ballo.

No. 3 Baylor - The Bears get a good first round matchup against Colgate, who is making its fourth straight NCAA Tournament appearance, but this is arguably their weakest group. It would be fun to see them take on New Mexico in the Round of 32, as the Lobos are hot and play at the eighth fastest pace in the country. However, there's too much talent and experience for Baylor not to make the second weekend.

No. 12 Grand Canyon - I know I'm going out on a bit of a limb here, but hey, what fun is it to just pick all of the favorites to get through? As I predicted above, I like Grand Canyon to get through the Gaels as only a five-point underdog, where a matchup would likely loom with Alabama. The Crimson Tide have shown that they know how to lose, doing it 11 times this season, including four of their last six. The Antelopes have the momentum to pull off a couple upsets.

FINAL FOUR PICK

No. 2 Arizona - Tommy Lloyd has done an impressive job through three years in Tucson, going 86-19, but has yet to shine in the tournament. This is his opportunity to do just that with an excellent team, combined with not the most difficult path. Finding a weak point with this team isn't easy, as Arizona is solid on both ends of the floor, ranking eighth in KenPom's offensive efficiency metric and 12th defensively. This team has four players averaging in double figures and has star power in the backcourt and frontcourt with Love and Ballo. Although the group hasn't been heavily reliant on the three ball, it still has five players shooting 35 percent or better from deep. The bench has also shown to be solid, and the Wildcats even have an efficient 7-2 backup center in Motiejus Krivas in case Ballo gets into foul trouble. I think you could make a strong case that UConn is the only team in the entire bracket that's more likely to reach the Final Four.