This article is part of our RotoWire Bracketology series.
For a live, updated bracket throughout the week check out our RotoWire Bracketology page.
A lot of people (including coaches) complain about metrics. They don't believe a computer should decide if a team makes the NCAA Tournament or not. They don't believe a computer can be trusted. They scoff at KenPom and the NET.
But what about Strength of Record (SOR)? It's a resume metric, which is a "measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's win-loss record is to achieve." Unlike a lot of the predictive metrics, you can't really argue SOR because it's exactly what has happened. When putting together my bracketology and analyzing teams, I like using both KenPom and SOR, as I think it's useful to get the best of both worlds instead of relying on one thing.
For this article, I wanted to pinpoint some teams with weird resumes and dive into Strength of Records a little more to try and make sense of it.
Alabama: SOR 10, BracketMatrix projected 3-seed
Alabama has been in the light almost all season because it has yet to drop out of top-13 at KenPom despite starting the season 6-5. The Crimson Tide have unsurprisingly turned things around, and their SOR is up to No. 10.
Looking at their last five losses, they can almost be wiped from the resume because losing on the road against some of the best teams in the country doesn't mean anything. However, losses to Ohio State and Clemson are a little more questionable, and there still seems to be plenty of questions on how good they are, which seems to always be the case for Nate Oats-coached teams.
If you change maybe two of their road wins to losses, the Crimson Tide would probably be closer to 20 in SOR. Outside of the Auburn win, there's not a ton on the resume outside of road wins against mediocre SEC teams. Road wins have to mean something, and the wins at Mississippi State, Georgia and LSU give them enough of a boost. Of note, scoring 100 points or winning by 20-plus points doesn't change SOR.
If the road wins continue and the Tide win at Kentucky, Mississippi and/or Florida, they may suddenly be in the conversation for a No. 2 seed. Or, if they are actually elite, the final No. 1 seed could be in play. Maybe the predictive metrics were right all along.
Creighton: SOR 13, BracketMatrix projected 4-seed
Creighton is another team that is seemingly impossible to project. I've been on the wrong side of betting them many times this season, and I assume that'll continue. The Bluejays have massive home wins against UConn and Alabama, but similar to Alabama, their road wins are the only reason they're top-15 in SOR.
They won at Nebraska, Seton Hall, Xavier and Butler. You could argue that maybe only five other teams in the country could do that. The problem is that the Bluejays also lost at home to Villanova and Butler. Turn those games, one a 68-66 OT loss and the other a last-second 99-98 loss, into wins and this is probably a top-10 resume, if not top five.
Conveniently, KenPom has Creighton at No. 11 as of writing.
Texas A&M: SOR 61, BracketMatrix projected 10-seed
The Aggies are the final team I want to look at because they'll probably be on the outside of the bubble after their trip to Tennessee. They were No. 13 at KenPom in November and stayed near the top-20 until a home loss against LSU.
The home loss against Memphis is getting worse by the day, while wins against Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee and Iowa State are the only reason they're in the conversation. However, while those wins are nice, at some point losses to Arkansas (x2), LSU and Vanderbilt have to matter.
After their most recent loss, they fell nine spots to 52 in KenPom and their SOR was down to 61. This is a situation where SOR can be more useful when looking at a team with a bunch of good wins but also bad losses. How many other teams could beat those elite teams and lose to fairly bad ones? According to Strength of Record, 60 other teams, which means the Aggies shouldn't be on the right side of the bubble.
What Does It Mean?
Unlike KenPom and predictive metrics, Strength of Record is a fickle metric. Turn one or two key results into wins or losses and things change in a big way. Texas A&M lost at the buzzer to a bad Vanderbilt team. It also lost lost by one point at Arkansas and by three points against Ole Miss. Turn those into one-point wins and the Aggies may have a top-40 SOR and probably closer to a 10-seed than a no-seed. In comparison, metrics like KenPom wouldn't change much because as long as you play in a close game against good competition, the result doesn't matter for predictives.
In the end, you can't use Strength of Record by itself. If a team lost 10 one-point games on buzzer beaters, it would be viewed the same as DePaul losing every game by 30-plus points. It's best used when also taking KenPom and other predictive metrics into account.
Metrics prior to games on Thursday, Feb. 22
