Sweet 16 Preview: South Region

SOUTH REGION SWEET 16

Site: Houston
Tip-off: Friday

The lowest seed remaining in the NCAA Tournament resides in the South Region. Many believed UCLA didn't even deserve to make the Big Dance. Yet here are the Bruins, having beaten SMU on a questionable goaltend and then winning handily over upstart UAB. The Blazers threw the bracket into a bit of a frenzy initially with shocking win over Iowa State. The Bruins will face a Gonzaga squad that has not really been tested thus far in the tourney. The Zags could get to the Elite Eight without beating a team seeded higher than 7.

Meanwhile, top-seeded Duke took care of business on the other side of the region, while Utah avoided the 12-5 upset and then dispatched Georgetown. The Hoyas once again bow out of the dance early despite a relatively high seed. The ACC and Pac-12 each have lost only once in the Tournament. Something will have to give when the Dukies battle the Utes on Friday.

No. 5 Utah vs. No. 1 Duke

Key Matchup: Utah's Delon Wright vs. Duke's Justise Winslow. This should be one heck of a game within the game, as both players are versatile, athletic and play starring roles for their respective squads. Wright is a superior passer and the catalyst for the Utah offense. He leads the team in scoring and dishing, while placing second in rebounding. The ball will almost always be in Wright's hands when the Utes are on offense. Winslow has a slight size advantage and is difficult to slow in the open court. He was the best player on the court in Duke's win over San Diego State, totaling 13 points, 12 rebounds, five assists, three blocks and four steals in the 68-49 rout. However, Winslow's main job in this game will be to slow Wright.

Utah will Win IF: it can slow the pace, avoid turnovers and keep the game low scoring. Duke is fourth in the nation in scoring at 80.6 points per game. The Utes are 11th in the nation in scoring defense at 56.9 points per game. While the Utes are an efficient offensive team, they will lose if the game turns into a track meet. The best chance for the Utes to win will be to limit possessions, take care of the basketball and score late in the shot clock.

Duke will Win IF: the Blue Devils can effectively guard the three-point line. In Duke's four losses this season, opponents shot 48.4 percent (30 of 62) from long range. Duke has the big bodies inside to win the rebounding battle and guard the paint, but the defensive effort on the exterior has been questionable for stretches. Quinn Cook in particular needs to be an engaged defender, and not just worry about his own three-point shot. Utah hit 8-of-14 treys in its most recent win over Georgetown, so you can bet guarding the long-range shot will be a point of emphasis for Coach K. Utah guard Brandon Taylor shoots 43.9 percent from three-point land.

Player to Watch: Jahlil Okafor, Duke. Who else? Okafor scored 18 points in the first half of Duke's impressive victory over San Diego State, as the Aztecs had no answer for the 7-footer on the block. Jakob Poeltl, a 7-foot freshman from Austria, has had a stellar campaign for the Utes but remains raw and draws the unenviable task of guarding Okafor. Okafor is polished and poised, and it still likely will take multiple defenders to attempt to bottle him up. Poeltl's best bet will be to make Okafor play defense; Poeltl is shooting a blistering 69.1 percent from the field this season, and Okafor still has room for improvement on the defensive end. Perhaps Poeltl can at least make Okafor work on both ends of the court, or even get the Duke big man in foul trouble.

Prediction: The Blue Devils are clicking on all cylinders. Okafor is a beast down low, Winslow's game appears to be peaking and the guard play from Cook and Tyus Jones has been superb. It will take a Herculean effort from Delon Wright to get the Utes past the Blue Devils, and the bet here is that Winslow makes his task extremely difficult Friday. It may not be the prettiest game to watch, but the Blue Devils should advance.

No. 11 UCLA vs. No. 2 Gonzaga

Key Matchup: UCLA's Bryce Alford vs. Gonzaga's Kevin Pangos. The frontcourt matchups should be great theater, but the point guards really push their respective squads into high gear. Alford is a streaky, freewheeling point guard who is not afraid to let it fly from long range. He shoots over six three-pointers per game, nailing 39.2-percent of those shots from distance. He hit nine treys in the narrow victory over SMU in the opening round. Pangos is more measured for Gonzaga, as he doesn't have to score to impact the game. The Gonzaga offense runs like a well-oiled machine under his direction. His scoring is down, but his percentages are up from a season ago. That includes hitting 44.9-percent of his threes as a senior. Still, both players average about five assists per contest, and play heavy minutes. The first team to 80 may win this game, and the result could hinge on which point guard does a better job of deciding when to score, and when to pass.

UCLA will Win IF: if the Bruins win the rebounding battle. It's a bit of a misnomer naming the Bulldogs as a "soft" or "finesse" squad simply due to the team's incredible offensive prowess. Behind the stellar play of center Przemek Karnowski and forward Domantas Sabonis, the Zags are the second-best defensive rebounding unit in the country. The three starting frontcourt players for the Zags are all at least 6-foot-10. UCLA is an excellent rebounding team as well behind Kevon Looney and Tony Parker, but neither player is taller than 6-9. However, Parker pounded UAB on the interior with 28 points and 12 rebounds. Looney has also snatched double-digit boards in each of the last two games. If the Bruins want to keep pace with Gonzaga, they will need second-chance points on the offensive end, and to limit the Zags' opportunities on the other side of the court.

Gonzaga will Win IF: the Bulldogs can stay in rhythm on offense. Few teams have slowed Gonzaga down this season. Arizona held Gonzaga to 63 points in an overtime loss, including forcing the Zags to shoot just 4-of-17 from long distance. By contrast, the Bulldogs shot more than 50 percent from the field in the opening round win over North Dakota State and more than 60 percent from the floor against Iowa. They're not streaky, they're efficient; the Bulldogs are No. 1 in field-goal percentage in college basketball. It will be a monumental task for the Bruins to disrupt Gonzaga's flow. That may be the only way to take down the Zags.

Player to Watch: Kyle Wiltjer. Gonzaga. The Kentucky transfer has been lights-out from three-point land this season, canning a staggering 47.9 percent of his treys. Wiltjer is more than just a one-trick pony, though, as he can beat you in a variety of ways. He has also improved his rebounding and toughness in the post. He had 23 points and eight rebounds in the opening round against North Dakota State, then notched 24 points and seven boards in the slaughter of Iowa. He had an insane 45 points at Saint Mary's in late February, nearly outscoring the Gaels on his own. If Wiltjer gets going Friday, the Bruins' season could be over in a hurry.

Prediction: Can the Bruins continue their surprising Cinderella run, or is this finally Gonzaga's year? UCLA is playing its best basketball of the season at the right time, but the Zags are an offensive juggernaut. UCLA's forte has not been defense this season; the Bruins are 215th in the nation in points allowed. An up-and-down pace certainly favors the Bulldogs, and the Bruins likely won't be able to keep up with the high-octane Zags. Coach Mark Few's squad should reach the Elite Eight with a chance to go to the school's first Final Four.