Dennis Smith Jr., (PG)
19 years old, 6-foot-3, 195 pounds
Tuesday's game against Illinois was likely the first time non-NC State fans got to see the Wolfpack's freshman point guard, and considering the other games that were going on at the same time, he probably still has not been seen by the majority of college basketball observers and even many NBA draftniks. Smith is a consensus top-five prospect, and is ranked as high as No. 2 by some outlets, yet at this point he is probably less famous than players like Markelle Fultz, Josh Jackson, Lonzo Ball and even freshmen like Jayson Tatum and Harry Giles who have yet to play in a game. That may be because he plays for NC State and his team is not that great, but it is also because his game does not really lend itself to hyperbole.
PASSING
The first thing I noticed with Smith is that he can be a very lazy passer. That is not to say he cannot make a great pass when needed, but passing is not an art to him the way it is to the great passing point guards. His two-handed chest passes are from his belt buckle, and not his chest, which can lead to there being less zip and less accuracy. Basically, he is too in love with the pocket pass, and uses it in all instances when he is passing from the ground with two hands. It is not something that will stop him
Dennis Smith Jr., (PG)
19 years old, 6-foot-3, 195 pounds
Tuesday's game against Illinois was likely the first time non-NC State fans got to see the Wolfpack's freshman point guard, and considering the other games that were going on at the same time, he probably still has not been seen by the majority of college basketball observers and even many NBA draftniks. Smith is a consensus top-five prospect, and is ranked as high as No. 2 by some outlets, yet at this point he is probably less famous than players like Markelle Fultz, Josh Jackson, Lonzo Ball and even freshmen like Jayson Tatum and Harry Giles who have yet to play in a game. That may be because he plays for NC State and his team is not that great, but it is also because his game does not really lend itself to hyperbole.
PASSING
The first thing I noticed with Smith is that he can be a very lazy passer. That is not to say he cannot make a great pass when needed, but passing is not an art to him the way it is to the great passing point guards. His two-handed chest passes are from his belt buckle, and not his chest, which can lead to there being less zip and less accuracy. Basically, he is too in love with the pocket pass, and uses it in all instances when he is passing from the ground with two hands. It is not something that will stop him from getting drafted in the top-10, but it is an area of his game where he lacks sound fundamentals, and it will lead to slightly more turnovers if it is not corrected.
Here is an example of him making a perfect pass in a moment of urgency, because if he is even a tick late or slightly off the mark with this pass, it would have resulted in his teammate getting blocked at the rim:
This serves as a reminder of how correctable this issue is. He is capable of making great passes all the time, but where he gets into trouble is when he starts lazily swinging the ball around the perimeter, when an assist is not on the line. He was also quite willing to attempt a very bad post entry-pass early in the game that was intercepted without his teammate getting a hand on it.
It is possible he is just bored and that this will be a non-issue at the next level. His best passes are when he is driving to pass or passing in transition, because then it is just a natural action that is second nature and in the flow of the game. The one time in this game when he did drive to pass and dumped off a perfect dime to a teammate, his big man fumbled the pass away for a turnover, and Smith became visibly annoyed.
SCORING
This is the aspect of Smith's game that will get him drafted highly and lead to him making at least a few All-Star teams. He is very much like Russell Westbrook in that he is in his happy place when he is scoring, and passing sometimes seems like an obligation. Getting to the rack is where he is dominating at this stage in his development. Smith can drive and finish with either hand, and uses excellent burst when he gets into the paint to create separation.
He has excellent handles. His in-traffic dribbling is already elite. He has a power handle, where he just pounds the ball into the ground without sacrificing control, much in the mold of Chris Paul. The combination of an elite handle, above average athleticism and strong finishing skills will allow him to always challenge the defense, in the halfcourt and transition, and in the NBA it will lead to a lot of trips to the free-throw line. Here was his best play from Tuesday's game, which shows off all of these skills:
He also has an advanced mid-range game, which is excellent to see, considering a lot of point guards seem to either want to drive or shoot three-pointers, and nothing in between. His bounce allows him to rise up and get his shot off over opposing point guards in tight quarters.
His three-point shot is the area of his game that everyone points to as a weakness, and at this point, that is an accurate assessment. He is taking 4.1 threes per game and hitting just 27.6 percent of them. Fultz, for instance, is hitting at a 43.5 percent clip, while Ball, whose shooting form is horrendous, is hitting 48.6 percent from beyond the arc. I think the form is there for Smith to be a better three-point shooter than Derrick Rose or John Wall, and he will probably develop in the same way as Paul in that area of his game. Assuming he gets there, the key for me is that he cuts down on the attempts. Paul will shoot threes when he is open and it is in the flow of the offense, but he never settles for a three. Smith is basically attempting the same number of threes as Fultz and Ball right now, and there is no need for that. Obviously he is trying to show NBA teams he can hit from beyond the arc, but he would be much better served trying to impress them with his skills as a dribbler, driver, finisher and playmaker.
ATHLETICISM
Smith is a good but not great athlete. He can look like an elite athlete on certain drives, but it comes and goes too much to put him in that Westbrook, prime Rose category of athlete. The only time he looks like a great athlete is in quick bursts in the paint. He could still be slightly limited by last year's ACL surgery, or simply playing cautiously to try to ensure he does not get injured this year, but in his words he is 110 percent recovered from the surgery, so it is hard to project significant gains there, other than the natural gains that come with a player going from 19 to 23 or 24 years old. His athleticism does not shine on defense or in the open court. By point guard standards, he projects as more of an above average straight-line runner. This all limits his ultimate ceiling, considering he is not an elite shooter or passer.
DEFENSE
It was just one look, but he did not seem interested in impacting the game on defense. Again, he might just be bored. Defense is the toughest thing to scout in college players because it is all about effort, especially with someone like Smith, who has all the physical tools to lock down opposing point guards. He has a sturdy build without sacrificing lateral quickness, and this will be the determining factor for him on draft day. A team that thinks Smith will bring it on both ends could justify taking him in the top three. If the teams picking up top think he is more of a one-way player, he could slide out of the top five.
Top 10 Prospects
1. Josh Jackson, SF, Kansas (Last week: 2)
2. Markelle Fultz, PG, Washington (Last week: 1)
3. Frank Ntilikina, PG, France (Last week: 3)
4. Jayson Tatum, SF, Duke (Last week: 5)
5. Jonathan Isaac, SF, Florida State (Last week: 6)
6. Lonzo Ball, PG, UCLA (Last week: 9)
7. Dennis Smith, PG, North Carolina State (Last week: 4)
8. Harry Giles, PF, Duke (Last week: 7)
9. OG Anunoby, SF, Indiana (Last week: 8)
10. Ivan Rabb, PF, Cal (Last week: 10)
