This article is part of our DraftKings College Football series.
Welcome to the Week 7 installment of the DraftKings Main Slate breakdown. We have an eclectic 12-game mix headlined by the Red River Showdown, but there are plenty of other games of interest as well. Below, you'll find a cheat sheet along with links to all of our DFS tools. I've also written up a position-by-position breakdown with some of my favorite plays of the week, along with some thoughts on games and defenses to target.
|Team||Opponent||H/A||O/U||Spread||Implied Points||Plays Per Game||Opp. Pass Yds Allowed/ GM||Opp.Pass TD Allowed/GM|
|Iowa State||West Virginia||A||53.5||-10.5||32||68.20||203.4||2.0|
|Arizona State||Washington State||A||59||-1.0||30||65.40||265.8||1.6|
|Washington State||Arizona State||N||59||1.0||29||67.60||222.2||1.2|
|West Virginia||Iowa State||H||53.5||10.5||21.5||69.40||234.4||1.6|
|Team||Opponent||H/A||O/U||Spread||Implied Points||Opp. Rush Yds/G||Opp. YPC Allowed||Opp. Rush TD Allowed/G||Offensive S&P+||Opponent Defense S&P+|
|Iowa State||West Virginia||A||53.5||-10.5||32||181.2||4.23||1.4||36||54|
|Arizona State||Washington State||A||59||-1.0||30||178.6||4.56||2.0||89||84|
|Washington State||Arizona State||N||59||1.0||29||103.6||2.96||0.6||6||9|
|West Virginia||Iowa State||H||53.5||10.5||21.5||113.6||3.21||0.6||77||22|
Games to Target
The Oklahoma-Texas game is obvious game to load up on with an over/under of 75.5 which is easily the highest on the slate. Both Jalen Hurts and Sam Ehlinger are in play and neither are facing a defense that ranks in the Top-40 in S&P+. Neither team sports a particularly strong option at running back, so I'll be exploring other options at that position, but both passing games are worth exploring in cash games.
Looking beyond that, Clemson's passing game faces a shaky Florida State secondary. Also, Maryland faces Purdue's defense that ranks 105th in S&P+ and gives up 2.6 passing touchdowns per game. On the ground, Georgia Tech, Baylor, and Illinois feature the worst run defenses on the slate with the Yellow Jackets checking in with the worst metrics, allowing 245 rush yards per game.
Position by Position
Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma ($9,000) vs. Texas
He's far-and-away the top fantasy option in the nation. He's somehow $300 cheaper than he was a week ago despite facing a defense that's only marginally better than Kansas' by S&P+. He's leading one of just two offenses on this slate that's projected to score over 40 points. There's not much more to say other than fade at your own risk.
Quentin Harris, Duke ($7,800) vs. Georgia Tech
Harris was mostly dominated by Pitt's defense last week but still managed to post a respectable 21.5 fantasy points. Pitt's defense ranks #19 in S&P+. The defense Harris is facing this week, Georgia Tech, ranks 41st and I'm surprised it's that high.
Prior to the Pitt game, Harris was completing 72 percent of his passes with a 10:2 TD:INT. He doesn't have a loaded group of pass-catchers, but he can still post decent production in that regard and Georgia Tech's defense isn't overly imposing in that regard. But the real intrigue in Harris' fantasy value is in his mobility. He has 342 yards and four scores on the ground already and Georgia Tech has the worst run defense on the board. More on that later. Either way, this is a great setup for Harris to hit value at a price tag that gives you plenty of flexibility for the rest of your lineup(s).
Trevor Lawrence, Clemson ($7,200) vs. Florida State
If not now, when? Clemson is a near four-touchdown favorite and Florida State gives up the second-most passing yards per game (302). And it's not like the 'Noles have faced anyone of Lawrence's caliber, no offense to Caleb Evans.
Lawrence has been a bit of a disappointment considering the near-impossible expectations placed on him entering the season, completing 61 percent of his passes with an 8.3 YPA and pedestrian 8:5 TD:INT. The bye week should help him be fully healthy heading into Saturday, and with this matchup and this supporting cast, Lawrence is in position to pay off on a price tag that is nearly a full $1,000 less than it's been all year.
Jett Duffey, Texas Tech ($6,600) at Baylor
Asking for a repeat of last week's 45-point breakout is just greedy. But when Duffey's price tag is only up to $6,600 from $6,000, we can live with a little less than that total and still come away happy. Duffey is underrated as a passer even dating back to last season and has the rushing ability to give him touchdown upside in that regard. Baylor's defense is far better than what we've seen from the Bears in the past (31st in S&P+) but it's not good enough to scare me off Duffey at that price.
For the Bold
Tyrrell Pigrome, Maryland ($5,400) at Purdue
With Josh Jackson likely out with an ankle injury, Pigrome is set to make his first start of the season. He's dirt cheap at $5,400 with a great matchup going against Purdue's defense that ranks105th by S&P+. Pigrome is, admittedly, short on track record but has shown flashes in the past and actually won the starting job in 2017 before tearing his ACL during a win on the road over Texas. He'll be a switch up from Jackson and he has mobility that adds stress in a new way to an already thin Purdue defense. If you're trying to throw one last lineup together before your tailgate finishes up, maybe you can talk yourself into Pigrome.
Deon Jackson, Duke ($5,400) vs. Georgia Tech
As promised, here are some details on Georgia Tech's run defense. The Yellow Jackets give up 245 rushing yards per game – the worst of any Power 5 team and the fourth-worst in the nation. They also give up 5.0 yards per carry and 2.0 rushing scores per game. No other running back on Duke comes close to Jackson's workload, either. He holds a 35 percent rushing share while the second-highest share among running backs is Mataeo Durant's 21 percent. Of course, Quentin Harris' rushing threat is a potential pitfall for vultures touchdowns, but we can't have it all when shopping for running backs at this price. The fact that Jackson has a 13 percent target share helps raise his floor in this full-point PPR format, too.
Anthony McFarland, Maryland ($7,200) at Purdue
In keeping with the theme of targeting Purdue, McFarland represents a safer route to getting exposure to the Maryland offense than using Pigrome. The price is far from a bargain, but that could actually work in our favor as it'll likely keep his ownership percentage down to a reasonable number. McFarland averages 5.4 yards per carry and is already up to seven rushing scores on the year, almost twice as many as his 2018 total. Maryland could opt to keep the pressure off Pigrome by leaning on McFarland here, too. And a high volume against this porous of a Purdue defense is something worth targeting.
Kylin Hill, Mississippi State ($7,300) at Tennessee
It's tough choosing between Hill and D'Andre Swift at this price point, but I lean Hill for a few reasons. Hill dominates the workload out of the Mississippi State backfield with over 20 carries per game while Georgia has been more inclined to manage Swift's workload. Hill also draws a softer matchup with Tennessee giving up 167 rushing yards per game while Swift's opponent, South Carolina, gives up 139 rush yards per game on 3.8 YPC. It's not that Swift is a bad play, I just prefer Hill's setup for this week.
For the Bold
Zamir White, Georgia ($3,800) vs. South Carolina
If you're looking for a punt play at running back or flex, going after a former five-star recruit playing on a heavily favored team is a decent path to take. White doesn't get heavy volume, but he's consistently seeing between six and eight carries per game and rips off an impressive 7.6 yards per carry. If Georgia continues its trend of not overusing Swift and also under-utilizing James Cook, then White becomes a strong candidate to see the bulk of the work late against a South Carolina defense that will be battered by the time the fourth quarter rolls around.
CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma ($7,200) vs. Texas
Lamb was a trap last week – he was coming off a mammoth performance against Texas Tech and facing a Kansas squad that was never going to force Oklahoma's offense to go beyond second or third gear. This week he comes in at $800 cheaper and faces the worst pass defense on the slate.
Tee Higgins, Clemson $6,300 vs. Florida State
If you're buying what I'm selling re: Trevor Lawrence, then Higgins makes sense as part of a stack. Higgins has managed strong production this season despite Lawrence playing below his potential, catching 22 of 32 targets for 505 yards (15.8 YPT!) and three touchdowns. Justyn Ross is an obvious candidate for some positive regression as there's no way he'll hover below 6.0 YPT for long, but Higgins is the safer play at the moment. Pointing to target share doesn't tell the whole story, either. Ross is ahead of Higgins in target share with 25.3 percent as opposed to Higgins' 21.9 percent, but Ross' 16 targets against A&M is the proverbial thumb on the scale here. Higgins saw more targets than Ross in Clemson's last game and is, at worst, option 1B in this offense. Also, Florida State's passing defense is the only one other than Texas giving up over 300 passing yards per game.
Tyquan Thornton, Baylor $5,800 vs. Texas Tech
Thornton is a cheap way to get exposure to the Baylor passing attack that has been putting up good but not great numbers through five games. He is seeing roughly six targets per game and converting that into 11.3 YPT while scoring a touchdown on roughly 10 percent of his targets. Thornton hasn't seen less than five targets in any of his last three games and now gets to face a Texas Tech defense that has surrendered 9.8 YPA against Power Five opponents. Counterpart Denzel Mims ($7,100) is a fine play, too, I'm just not sold that he's $1,300 better.
Lawrence Cager and George Pickens, Georgia ($5,100) vs. South Carolina
Georgia spreads the ball around as well as anyone and DraftKings is hip to that fact, pricing the Bulldogs' top two receivers at the same point and daring you to choose between them. I'll lay out the case for both.
With Cager, you're getting a big-bodied target who has touchdowns in three straight games and clearly has the trust of Jake Fromm in the Red Zone. He's also reliable, having caught 15 of 16 targets with a 12.3 YPT.
With Pickens, you're getting a more dynamic and speedy player who may not have the same red zone rapport with Jake Fromm, but does offer more big-play potential. And at 6-3, it's not like he's a total non-factor in the red zone, either.
Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State ($6,200) vs. Washington State
Aiyuk has several things going for him heading into this matchup. He's the true No.1 receiver in the Arizona State offense with a 27.8 percent target share to go with a 12.3 YPT. He's also going against Washington State's weak defense that just lost its coordinator over the bye. The Cougs rank 84th in defensive S&P+ and give up 265 passing yards per game. Look for Aiyuk to see a heavy volume in a favorable matchup, making him more than worth the mid-tier price tag.
Others to Consider
- Dontay Demus, Maryland ($5,400) at Purdue: He's the No.1 receiver in the offense, averages 9.6 YPT, and Purdue's defense ranks a slate-worst 105th in S&P+.
- Renard Bell, Washington State at Arizona State: This comes with a caveat, as playing Bell hinges on whether Brandon Arconado is able to suit up. If Arconado is out, like he was against Utah, Bell could challenge for the nine targets he saw in his absence last time.
- T.J. Vasher, Texas Tech ($6,900) at Baylor: Vasher has seen nine-or-more targets in four of five games and saw 10 targets from quarterback Jett Duffey last week. Baylor is strong in the secondary, but being the No.1 in the Texas Tech offense still means something even if it's not a true Air Raid anymore. No one else offers Vasher's red zone skill set in this offense, either.