College Capper: Best Bets Week 9

Chris' Picks

The house giveth, and it taketh. It took from me heavily last week. At least I can say I'm 5-5 over the last two weeks? In keeping with my theme of the season, the line this week I think makes no sense is North Carolina (-6) at Virginia. The Cavaliers are being gashed by the pass, and can't score. How do they keep this close, even against a bad UNC defense?

Wake Forest (-11) at Syracuse

Perhaps Syracuse builds on last week's valiant effort at Clemson. Or perhaps they got every break possible and the Tigers went through the motions. The Orange still have massive OL problems, a backup quarterback, and questions on receiver availability after Taj Harris' suspension. The Orange are still 1-5 with double-digit losses to Duke and Liberty. Wake features a bruising rushing attack averaging 207 yards in four games not against Clemson and will exploit Syracuse's 90th-ranked run defense that allows 5.1 yards per carry with relative ease. Wake's defense is also surging, allowing 17.6 ppg during its three-game win streak. 

Louisville (+3.5) vs. Virginia Tech

I have no faith in Louisville's defense. But I also have no faith in the Hokies offense, specifically their play calling, as HC Justin Fuente leaves plenty to be desired. The Hokies defense is finally at full strength after weeks of contract tracing, but the Cardinals offense has been far better at home, averaging 39.0 ppg against 18.0 ppg on the road. As such, I'll take the points and not expect the Hokies to put up 42+.

Cincinnati (-6.5) vs. Memphis

Perhaps I'm falling for a sucker here, but the Cincinnati defense is dominant, and that carries them to a big win here. They've allowed 50 points in four games, most recently surrendering just 13 points and 1.9 yards per carry to an offense that previously averaged 42.6 ppg and 5.1 ypc. This is the game where Memphis' offense will feel the talent depletion the roster suffered when RB Kenny Gainwell and WR Damonte Coxie opted out of the season. Both sides can score, but only one can get steady stops, making for an easy Bearcat win.

Nevada (-14) at UNLV

Call this a gut feel, but UNLV looks really, really bad. Like Akron, UMass type bad. They threw for 106 yards last week and ran for 80 (2.3 ypc) while scoring six points against San Diego State. While the Aztec defense is likely far better than the Wolfpack's here, I can't envision the Rebels scoring enough to stay close. Nevada threw for 420 yards and four scores last week, and QB Carson Strong, paired with WRs Cole Turner and Romeo Doubs are set for another big outing in a blowout win. 

Alabama (-31) vs. Mississippi State

I want to emphasize that Alabama -21 or less in the first half is an every-week play regardless of matchup, and I believe they are 4-1 ATS in the first half this season. But that seems too cute to officially list every week, so we'll target this big overall number. Mississippi State is an absolute mess, with some seven players leaving the program, and they have no clue who will be under center. They haven't scored more than 14 points in three weeks, and Alabama is averaging 48.4 per game.

Last week: 1-4, Season: 16-21-2

GREG'S PICKS

I finally broke out of the old boring 3-2 routine this past week and wouldn't you know it, I did so by improving to 4-1 on the week. It would be a stretch to say that 4-1 was a disappointment, but when you start 4-0, you get visions of a perfect week. Luckily, the false hope was squashed rather quickly as the Gophers didn't put up much of a fight. That was the lone loss, the four wins came easy as Syracuse was well within the huge number all day at Clemson, Kansas State got separation before halftime and both the LSU and UCF overs hit before the final quarter.    

Over (61) Minnesota at Maryland

I was on the Gophers this past week, but in my write-up, I did mention my only hesitation was their defense, which was replacing several key players. Michigan looks to have an improved offense this season, but I doubt it's as good as it looked this past Saturday. The Gophers are going to find themselves in shootouts all season as the offense is just fine, but the defense might not have time to gel. Maryland was terrible on offense this past week, but it was facing what should be, at minimum, and decent defense from Northwestern.              

Iowa (-2.5) vs Northwestern

Northwestern could not have looked better last week against Maryland, but we have to consider the competition. Maryland might be the worst team in the conference this season, so we can't put too much stock into the Wildcats' performance. Iowa did not look good against Purdue this past week, but while the passing attack of Purdue gave the Hawkeyes problems, they shouldn't have to worry about that this week from the Wildcats. Iowa usually defends its home turf within conference, and I expect nothing less this week than a bounce back from the Hawkeyes.              

Over (65.5) LSU at Auburn 

I was a little worried last week that a week off might give LSU some time to get its defense figured out and while the Tigers played a little better than they had in previous weeks this past week, they still look extremely vulnerable. The offense however didn't skip a beat, even without its starting QB. It doesn't matter who is under center this week, the Tigers are going to get theirs on offense and as long as the opposition has a competent offense, which Auburn does, then it's going to result in a shootout.           

Alabama (-31.5) vs. Mississippi State

Mississippi State is a complete mess right now and if its performance on the field wasn't bad enough, now the Bulldogs are dealing with more players leaving the program. That can't be good for morale, but then again, neither is putting up two points at home against Kentucky. Alabama has had some issues on defense, but Mississippi State is such a mess on offense right now, I can't imagine they'll be capable of taking advantage this week. As for Bama's offense, well, not even Georgia's defense is slowing that machine down right now.       

Boise State (-14) at Air Force

Air Force was very impressive in its opening game against Navy, but something happened in the weeks between its first and second game because the Falcons hardly resembled a D1 football team this past week against San Jose State. It was San Jose State's first game and maybe the Spartans have a historically strong defense, but from what I witnessed, Air Force doesn't have much in the way of offense, at least when facing a decent defense. Boise State did exactly what it was supposed to do last week in dismantling an overmatched Utah State team and the Broncos will do exactly the same this week.          

Last Week: 4-1-0, Season: 19-17-0