College Capper: Free College Football Picks this Week
Chris' Picks
Another week where momentum stalled, and I was likely more lucky than good. Feel like I pulled the Wake Forest game out of my backside, and took a 20-point fourth quarter to get my over. Alabama and Kentucky were bad calls, but I'll stand by the Ohio loss. They had a late cover before wilting in the final two minutes. Back under .500 ever so slightly, who knows if I can correct it this week!
Games I like that didn't make the cut include Cincinnati (-10.5) at Utah and Tennessee (-3) vs. Oklahoma, which probably go 2-0 while these highlighted slouch.
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SMU (+12.5) vs. Miami
This isn't the same SMU team as last year; the defense is borderline horrific, and the offense isn't as dynamic. QB Kevin Jennings isn't fully healthy and isn't running as often as a result, which could be bad news against Miami's fierce defensive line. But it's also the first time Miami has left the state of Florida all year, and they've shown they play to their opponent. The line just feels too large and has gone up since opening, seemingly based on SMU's predictable egg last week. It's not a revenge game, as SMU coach Rhett Lashlee, Miami's former OC, left on positive terms. But the Mustangs do still have ample cast-offs from Miami that were told they weren't good enough by Mario Cristobal. Miami should win, but by two touchdowns?
Georgia (-7) vs. Florida
The Gators could absolutely get a boost in their first game without Billy Napier. But Georgia is also coming off a bye and should be ready to dominate. I'll admit, the Bulldogs have been a tough team for me to peg, as the sum seems better than its individual parts. They've won the last four in this series by an average of 21.5 points, with the closest game being 14. A rivalry at a neutral site, sure, anything can happen. But until it does, assume it won't. If you want to have some fun, perhaps take Florida first half and Georgia to cover in a parlay at big odds. Look for some spark from the Gators early before the adrenaline subsides and the better team imposes its will.
California (+4.5) vs. Virginia
The Cavaliers are on borrowed time, right? They've seemingly sleepwalked through their last two wins, beating lowly Washington State and North Carolina by a combined three points, and now face the daunting travel to Berkley. They scored 30+ in each of the first six and have only 39 points over those two narrow victories. Cal is stout against the pass and can force Chandler Morris into mistakes, while Virginia is vulnerable through the air, where Cal is better offensively. I think they win outright.
Georgia Tech (-5.5) at North Carolina State
This opened at (-6.5) and has ticked down, and it makes no sense to me, so perhaps it's a trap. I admit freely that the Jackets haven't blown teams out, that their defense is leaky in terms of yardage but not on the scoreboard, and the Wolfpack can score. You know what they can't do? Stop anyone. They're fresh off allowing 53 points at Pitt, having lost four of their last five, three of which were by double digits. They are better against the run (46th) than the pass (131st), and we know the Jackets want to run. But given Georgia Tech's lackluster starts of late, I expect their best effort in a while in what's likely their toughest remaining test until Georgia to end the year. Haynes King is getting some faint Heisman buzz, and that gains momentum after Saturday.
Troy (-7.5) vs. Arkansas State
Butch Jones has five road wins since his tenure began in 2021, so we shouldn't have to worry about an upset; we just need an extended win. Troy has won five straight, four by at least a touchdown, so we should be flirting with a cover just on trends. They are battle-tested, as their two losses were competitive and came at Clemson vs. Memphis. Both sides are porous against the run, but Troy has at least shown a willingness to pass, whereas Arkansas State has just nine touchdown passes to date.
Last week: 2-3; Season: 22-23
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Greg's Picks
Sadly, the winning streak came to an end this past week, but at least I didn't crash out; I simply ended up one game short of a winning week.
We'll start with the wins, the first on Georgia Tech, which took its time to get going, but eventually pulled away from Syracuse. The other win was on Miami, and trust me, I know how lucky I was to get that one. Miami chose to continue running plays under the 2-minute timeout, despite Stanford not calling any timeouts. Miami eventually scored, putting the Hurricanes above the number for the first time all game with less than one minute remaining.
The losses we're very close. The first was on the Rutgers over, which was in range for a while, but never really had much of a chance outside of overtime. Minnesota was the next loss, and man, did I not see that one correctly. Minnesota was ripe for a letdown after routing Nebraska the week prior. Iowa, meanwhile, might just be a lot better than I thought. That close loss to Indiana is looking better every week. The final loss was the only semi-painful one as the Ducks were caught in a monsoon in the 2nd half. With that said, they certainly could have and should have built a bigger lead in the first half.
Under (45.5) 
Syracuse vs. 
North Carolina
These two teams are the worst that the ACC has to offer this season. Syracuse had some hope before losing its QB early in the season, but since then, the Orange have dropped four straight and have been non-competitive. You all know about North Carolina; the 'Heels have been terrible this season, and while they've been more competitive over the past two weeks, that's only thanks to their defense. Between the two teams, only one unit resides in the top 100 in yards per game, and that's the passing offense of Syracuse. However, that's largely due to Steve Angeli, who is not available.
Ohio State (-20.5) vs. Penn State
It sounds odd to say, but the only thing standing in the way of a cover in this spot for the Buckeyes is complacency. Penn State is in a bad way right now, and even though the loss at Iowa two weeks ago looks a little better today, the Nittany Lions are still a mess. The Problem for Penn State is the one-dimensional offense without Drew Allar. The Nittany Lions were able to run the ball against Iowa, but I don't think they'll be able to run with success at Ohio State. Unless Ethan Grunkmeyer improves leaps and bounds during the bye week, this one will get ugly. There's nothing on the horizon to distract the Buckeyes this week, either, so I don't think they'll be looking past his week.
Minnesota (-3.5) vs. Michigan State
I mentioned how the Gophers weren't ready to play this past week at Iowa, but the opposite should be true this week after that embarrassing loss. Michigan State, meanwhile, might not have much fight left after giving everything it had against rival Michigan this past week. In addition, the Spartans have lost five in a row, all by double-digits, so there's probably not a lot of hope left with this team. On paper, the Spartans don't excel in any area, while the Gophers have a decent defense. No, it didn't look that way this past week, but the Gophers should look a lot better at home, against a team that can't really do anything on offense.
Over (58.5) 
North Carolina State vs. Georgia Tech
This line initially caught my attention because it looked a little fishy. Georgia Tech is 8-0 and NCSU is 4-4, yet the Yellow Jackets are only favored by five points. I thought about taking the Wolfpack based on the trap theory, but I don't trust their defense. I don't trust the Georgia Tech defense either, which is why I like the over in this spot. This isn't just about bad defense, however; both teams can chuck the ball, and that's what I'm expecting here. The only script that might be problematic is one where the Yellow Jackets get a big lead and sit on the ball, but I don't think their defense will allow them to keep a big lead.
USC (-6) at Nebraska
I'm not really sure what to make of Nebraska. The 'Huskers had a nice win at Cincinnati to open the season, but they've been fairly unimpressive in conference play. USC has lost two of its past three games, but the Trojans have faced ranked teams three weeks running. I think this is a fork in the road where we realize that Nebraska is the same old team that's just not that good, while the Trojans might actually have something. Nebraska has a sound passing defense, which might trouble USC, but the Trojans should be able to run the ball if needed, which will eventually open up the passing game.
Last Week: 2-3-0 This Season 25-20-0
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Jeff's Picks
I had yet another week that fell short of expectations, although I am proud of some of the picks. I took the Commodores, who prevailed against Missouri, and my Texas A&M/LSU Over pick won by a mile. The Alabama/South Carolina game was a surprise for most pundits, and Wisconsin actually played defense against the Ducks in the first quarter. Despite the recent results, I refuse to quit. I'm going with some of the toughest picks on the slate this week, so I guess you could say I'm going for style points now.
USC -6 AND USC 1H TT OVER 16.5 @ Nebraska
Two of my five bets will come from his game. I was unsuccessful in hunting down a USC Game total, but I will happily take the first half total, which you can find on FanDuel. A bye week is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Trojans after a tough rain-soaked loss to Notre Dame. The offensive line was banged up two weeks ago, but a couple of the injured players dressed against the Irish. I think the week off will get them closer to 100 percent, and they'll head into Lincoln with a bounce-back on their minds. Nebraska is outmatched on just about every metric in this game, and even if they have some offensive success, they won't be able to keep up with USC's offense.
Tennessee -3 vs. Oklahoma
I was tempted to take the Over here, but after looking at some intangibles, I like the Vols. This is a potential CFP elimination game, and there are some story wrinkles that make this a game to watch. Brent Vanables fired Seth Littrell last season, and Littrell headed to Knoxville to reunite with Josh Heupel, who both played for Oklahoma when they won the national championship. I won't pretend to assume that Littrell knows much about Ben Arbuckle's offense, but he knows a ton about his former boss's defense, and the Vols will take advantage of the information. There's reportedly some bad blood between Littrell and Venables after the firing, so don't expect any handshakes. I would be mad if I were in Littrell's shoes, as Venables essentially blamed Littrell for the team's struggles last season. More fuel to the fire.
Florida +7.5 vs. Georgia
They're playing this game at a "neutral site,' but Gators fans have bought up most of the tickets in Jacksonville. Why should we take the Gators after Billy Napier's firing? For starters, the deed is finally done, so the team doesn't have that hanging over their heads. Secondly, Napier called the offensive plays, and some new blood into the playbook should help out DJ Lagway and this offense. Florida's wide receivers are also nearly 100 percent healthy, and I think they'll be able to break some plays against a Georgia defense that can be inconsistent at times. This is a very risky pick, but what do I have to lose at this point?
Minnesota -3.5 vs Michigan State
I'm shocked to see the spread here, as I expected the Spartans to be a 10-point underdog. I can summon up one nice thing to say about Michigan State at this point - they're a bit better than Wisconsin. I know, not a very high bar, but they are a mess on offense and can't get stops against anyone. The Gophers don't have the best defense on the planet, but Drake Lindsey has been efficient in getting the Gophers into the red zone, and is much better than Aidan Chiles on paper. The Spartans would need to get lucky in the turnover margin to have a shot here, but I think this is a smash spot for the Gophers.
Last Week: 2-3-0 Season: 17-28-0
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