College Capper: Week 11

Chris' Picks

Holy cow, a winning Week 10! Miracle or the start of a trend? All road favorites for me this week tells me it was likely more the former than the latter, but I'm strangely confident.

Clemson -32 at North Carolina State

It's never comfortable taking a number this big, and the angle of Clemson's No. 5 CFP ranking is probably low hanging fruit more than anything. But it does suggest the Tigers won't go through the motions but look to make a statement. They've scored 59 points in consecutive games, and at least 45 in four straight, and that's enough to earn a cover against N.C. State. The Wolfpack were just gashed for 44 by Wake Forest and have scored 16 points or fewer in three of their last four. Clemson hasn't allowed more than 14 in four consecutive games, and given the Pack's uneasy play under center, I'm not sure they score at all, let alone twice, while the Tigers easily eclipse 40.

Notre Dame -8 at Duke

Both teams are struggling offensively, but Duke's problems won't be overcome against Notre Dame's 28th-ranked scoring defense. Including 30 points in a loss to Pittsburgh, the Blue Devils averaged 16.0 ppg in their four losses. RB Deon Jackson may find success against the Irish, but QB Quentin Harris has just three TDs against five INTs in his last four games, three times being held to less than 200 yards. They'll struggle to score, suggesting Notre Dame isn't on upset alert. Assuming an Irish win, they've averaged 39.8 points in their six previous victories. If they can even flirt with 30 points, they should win by multiple scores.

Stanford -3.5 at Colorado

Colorado has lost five consecutive, going 1-4 ATS in that stretch. None of those loses was by fewer than five points, and three were by double-digits, giving up at least 35 points in every outing. Their pass defense ranks second to last nationally, allowing 316.0 ypg, giving up multiple touchdowns in every game. This line seems like a small number for the surging Cardinal, who appear to have righted their ship, winning three of the last four. Quarterback K.J. Costello returned two weeks ago to throw for 312 yards and three scores, and Stanford enjoyed last week off to further heal, as injuries have been its` downfall in September and early October. Two teams going in opposite directions, and the Cardinal should score plenty to cover this low number.

Tennessee +1 at Kentucky

I liked this a lot more Sunday night when UT opened +4, and the line seems to be moving regularly, but I'll take the Vols likely as much as -3 if necessary. They've won 16 of the last 18 in this series by an average of 12.9 points, with their two losses both three-point defeats. The Volunteers have covered in four straight, scored 71 points in their last two and allowed only 38 in their last three wins. They're doing it with a stout rush defense that has allowed 121 yards or less in those victories. Kentucky has become incredibly one-dimensional offensively with WR Lynn Bowden taking Wildcat snaps regularly. He's just 12-of-33 passing in his three starts under center. Kentucky will struggle to score, and while it won't be easy, the Volunteers grind out a road win.

Georgia State -2.5 at Louisiana-Monroe

ULM is 2-7 ATS, its last four losses have come by a total of 123 points and its only wins to date are against Grambling, Texas State and South Alabama. Further, the defense has allowed 100 points in its last two games and  ranks 125th against the run, allowing 5.6 ypc and 235.3 ypg. Georgia State, meanwhile, went 4-0 SU and ATS in October, scoring 52 points twice and rank 10th in rushing offense with 257.3 ypg. The run defense is getable, so ULM will get theres, but the Panthers consistently dominate time of possession. They need this win to keep pace in the Sun Belt East, and should get it relatively easily.

Last week: 3-2; Season: 20-31-1

GREG'S PICKS 

I'm back on the right side of .500 after posting a 3-2 week. As is the case just about every week, some games were close and others were not. Some were needlessly close, like the UCF over, which should have hit with ease, but it took a late TD to get over the number. The two teams had combined for 65 points through three quarters and needed just seven points in the fourth quarter to go over the number, but points were not coming easy in the fourth quarter. They did get there, however, as did Indiana and Illinois. The losers were Florida, which hung in there for quite a while, but couldn't get over the hump and USC, which hung in there for a quarter, then completely fell apart.  

Georgia Tech (+15) at Virginia 

I start each week looking for big favorites I can squeeze into a money-line parlay and when I came upon this game, something gave me pause. Virginia just hasn't found its stride this season and the Cavaliers have historically struggled against the triple-option Georgia Tech team. The Yellow Jackets don't offer much opposition these days, but their Achilles heel is their run defense and Virginia just doesn't run the ball all that effectively. Throw in an early start and I could see Virginia sleepwalking into this game. I think Virginia wins, but it will be a struggle.            

Illinois (+14.5) at Michigan State 

This one feels like a trap. If you were to look at the resumes of each of these teams, you'd have this line closer to a pick 'em, but this is college football and the logo on the helmet matters to Vegas and the public. Perhaps I am being too hard on Michigan State, though. Sure, its offense has been terrible this season, but that could be a product of its schedule, which has been brutally tough. The schedule gets easier from here, and maybe we'll look at the Spartans differently in a month, but before the Spartans face the underbelly of the Big Ten, they've got Michigan next week and their entire season rests on that game. Makes you wonder if they'll be focused on the game this week; a game which means virtually nothing in the big picture.             

Arkansas (-1) vs Western Kentucky 

Well, isn't this embarrassing. A middle-of-the-pack Conference USA team is nearly a pick 'em, on the road, against an SEC team. Arkansas has been terrible this season, but at some point, these kids need to realize that they play in the SEC and losing a game like this is unacceptable. Arkansas has been gouged on the ground the entire season, but Western Kentucky moves the ball primarily through the air. Arkansas has lost every SEC game this season, as well as two out of conference games at home, but with LSU and Missouri left on the schedule, this is the last chance for the seniors to get a win, and I have a feeling their pride will save the day.      

Georgia (-16) vs Missouri

Coming into the season, many pundits had Missouri at 8-0 entering this game. With many returning starters and Clemson transfer QB Kelly Bryant, big things were expected. An opening-night loss at Wyoming tempered expectations, but Missouri soon went on a run which saw the Tigers win five straight and then came Vanderbilt. Missouri inexplicably lost to Vanderbilt and backed that up with a loss to lowly Kentucky. The season is a complete loss at this point and a look at Missouri's schedule brings up even more question about just how good this team is. The Tigers' best win this season was against South Carolina. My only worry is a hangover for Georgia, but the Bulldogs should have learned their lesson about overlooking lesser teams earlier this season.

Wisconsin (-8.5) vs Iowa 

Full disclosure, this pick could be a result of a bias developed over the past few weeks watching Iowa's offense trip over its feet trying to move the ball down the field, or it could be just a good pick. Iowa, as always, has a strong defense, the Hawkeyes generally have a competent offense along with that defense, but that's not the case this season. Wisconsin has struggled the last couple weeks, but that has been a result of the competition. The defense is still there and the Badgers should have no problem shutting down the Hawkeye offense. If the Badgers can refocus, they'll have little trouble putting this game away early in the second half.       \

Last Week: 3-2-0, Season: 25-24-2