College Football DFS: DraftKings CFB Week 8 Main Slate

College Football DFS: DraftKings CFB DFS Week 8 Main Slate

We've got another great main slate on DraftKings for our college football DFS interests this week. We're running a little late this week (apologies), so I'll save the preamble and we can dive right in. 

Slate Overview

Tight Spreads & High Totals

Finding a game with a high over/under where both teams are expected to be competitive is always a primary goal for building our lineups. Games like that create a great scoring environment on both sides with little worry about the star players being pulled, like we do when a game gets lopsided. 

TCU vs Baylor (TCU -3; O/U 65.5)

Images of Bryce Petty and Trevone Boykin dance through my head as I see this game on the slate. 2014's matchup saw Baylor win 61-58 in Waco in one of the craziest games of the century. Those were the days. 

I still think TCU should have been in the playoff over FSU that year, but that's neither here nor there. 

We don't have the same level of offense in this one, and there's at least some semblance of defense on the TCU side, but these are still two Top 30 offenses. Both teams have implied totals north of 30, with TCU leading the slate at 34.25. I.E., there will be a lot of fantasy goodness in this one, even if it's a little chalky.

Digging into the specific plays for this game, Baylor QB Sawyer Robertson checks in at $8,900 while TCU's Josh Hoover sits at $8,300. Bryson Washington is the top-billed RB on the slate without an injury designation ($8,300), while TCU's lead back, Kevorian Barnes, is only $4,900 despite the soft matchup and a 42% rushing share. We might have to revisit that...

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On the pass-catchers front, Baylor tight end Michael Trigg has actually paced the Bears of late with 288 yards and three scores over the last three games. He topped out with 13 targets in the narrow victory over Kansas State.  TCU has been bad against opposing tight ends, surrendering five touchdowns to that position thus far and an average of 8.5 FPPG. Josh Cameron ($5,600) and Ashtyn Hawkins ($4,500) are next in line and talented enough to pay off at their salaries, but their production week-to-week is volatile. Also, Kobe Prentice ($3,500) has two catches in the last two games. They have gone for 103 yards and two touchdowns. Interesting.

TCU has some known commodities in Eric McAlister ($6,300) and Joseph Manjack ($4,800). However, it's interesting that true freshman Ed Small ($3,500) commanded 13 targets last week. Keep an eye on this injury report as Manjack is listed as probable while Small is questionable. 

Duke vs Georgia Tech (Duke -1.5; O/U 60.5)

I've been giving myself a headache all week trying to understand this spread but Vegas knows more than me, so I'll leave that alone for now. Regardless, we get a juicy total north of 60 and a spread that's close to a pick 'em. Points on both sides yet again.

Looking at the numbers, Duke has been vulnerable through the air (252.7 pass yards per game allowed, 8.3 YPA allowed). It might be an efficient day for Haynes King, but he's averaging just 22.5 pass attempts in his four games outside of the wild 42-attempt game at Wake Forest. 

That being said, maybe a game like that is in the offing if Duke really is going to push Tech to the brink. The line certainly implies that type of setup. 

Meanwhile, Georgia Tech is weak against the run (169.5 RuYD/G). Duke is a good running team but it runs through a three-headed committee of Nate Sheppard, Anderson Castle and Jaquez Moore. None of them are seeing double-digit carries per game, though, and Duke has reason to mix them all in with each of them averaging between 8.0 and 5.0 YPC. That group projects as a GPP-only type of consideration, but there should be at least one good play from there.

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Quarterback

Marcel Reed, Texas A&M ($8,500) at Arkansas

Reed is awesome on his own, and this matchup sets up one of his best spots of the whole season. Arkansas ranks 74th in defense by SP+ and 122nd in total defense. The total in this game sits at 58.5 with A&M carrying a 33.0 implied total.

Reed has put up at least 22 DK points in every game except the Auburn game, which was anomalous. Otherwise, he is routinely putting up strong production both through the air and on the ground. We haven't seen a truly monstrous outing from him yet, though Arkansas has been a team that can help fix that. 

He may have to take on a little more rushing work this week as well with Le'Veon Moss (ankle) out. Overall, Arkansas is coughing up ~27 DK points to opposing quarterbacks and we can expect a similar output from Reed here.

I think Taylen Green ($9,100) is an interesting bring-back option on the other side of this one as well.

Demond Williams, Washington ($7,900) at Michigan

This is simply too cheap for one of the most productive quarterbacks on this slate. He's completing 74.4 percent of his passes at a 9.4  YPA clip in Big Ten play, and is reliably running it 13+ times a game with solid efficiency (4.0 YPC). 

Michigan's defense is tough (10th in SP+) but not quite the suffocating unit we saw a couple of years ago. It gave up 408 total yards to Oklahoma, 351 total yards to Nebraska and 489 against USC. All of those were on the road, to be fair, but the home schedule has been such a cakewalk it's hard to draw any conclusions from the 219.3 YPG figure.

Additionally, Michigan is much tougher to run on than throw on, so the game plan might funnel more opportunities to Williams as a passer. 

Michigan's offense might slow the game down overall with its slow-paced, run-heavy approach. Still, there will be more than enough opportunities for Williams to return value, and there's a good chance that the field will be underweight on him. If Williams pops, you might have some serious leverage.

Trinidad Chambliss ($6,800) Ole Miss at Georgia

Like Williams, Chambliss is just too nice a value not to consider this week. Yes, it's his first SEC road start and yes, Georgia's defense might be coming around. Still, Chambliss is exactly the type of quarterback that can give the Dawg defense fits.

Georgia has made a habit of getting off to slow starts defensively, allowing ~14 first-half points per game in its last three. They tend to strap it in in the second half, but facing Chambliss is a completely different challenge than Jackson Arnold.

Chambliss is exceptional with the deep ball and is putting up 9.9 YPA since taking over as the starter. The Ole Miss offense's aggressive downfield philosophy should work in this spot as Georgia has been unable to generate pressure whatsoever. Chambliss, with time to operate and let plays develop, is a dangerous man. 

It would take a significant trend reversal for Georgia to be heating up Chambliss on every dropback. Plus, even if the pressure is there, Chambliss is showing to be a magician at evading rushers, extending plays and stinging the defense. 

You might not get the absolute ceiling game from Chambliss here, but you don't really need that when he's listed about $1,000 cheaper than usual. 

Others to Consider

• Haynes King, Georgia Tech ($8,300)
• Julian Sayin, Ohio State ($8,400)
• Will Hammond, Texas Tech ($7,200)
• Darian Mensah, Duke ($6,900)

Running Back

Kevorian Barnes, TCU ($4,900) vs Baylor

I told you we'd circle back to this one. Barnes is one of the best values on the board this week. He's starting to take over this backfield after missing Weeks 4 & 5, having accounted for 46 and 55 percent of the carries in his last two games. 

It's additionally helpful that TCU will be inclined to run here with Baylor's rush defense allowing 177.2 yards per game. Plus, running it will help keep the Baylor offense off the field which could be key considering how dangerous the Bears' passing attack is. Not to say TCU's passing game isn't lively here for DFS, but Barnes is an RB1 on the slate priced like a mid-tier RB2. 

Rueben Owens, Texas A&M ($4,400) at Arkansas

Apologies for giving out the chalkiest play of the week, but it'd be irresponsible to leave Owens out of the article. Le'Veon Moss (ankle) is out, opening the door for Owens to take the bulk of the backfield work against one of the worst rush defenses in the country (184 RuYD/G, 2.3 RuTD/G). 

Owens has looked good the last two weeks with 38 carries for 193 yards and a score against Mississippi State and Florida. The sledding was tougher against Florida (17 for 51 and a TD) but the volume was encouraging. 17+ carries against this Arkansas defense will bear far better results. 

If you're playing a GPP and willing to take a risk, Jamarion Morrow ($3,000) might be worth a look. He moves up the depth chart in Moss' absence and seems to be getting more involved in the offense of late. He had two receptions out of the backfield last week for 33 yards and a touchdown. 

Adam Randall, Clemson ($6,700) vs SMU

Clemson might have to roll with a more run-heavy approach Saturday, pending Cade Klubnik's status. Randall has a high floor and good ceiling regardless, but the opportunities could be even more plentiful with either Christopher Vizzina or a hobbled Klubnik behind center.

Randall is churning out 20.3 DK points per game and has plenty of involvement in the passing game. SMU has been solid against the run but also hasn't faced a great rushing team yet. The 'Stangs also give up a healthy amount of receptions to opposing running backs. 

This isn't quite the smash spot that playing against UNC was, but Randall profiles nicely here. 

Others to Consider

• Nate Sheppard, Duke ($6,300)
• Nate Frazier, Georgia ($4,600)
• Cameron Dickey, Texas Tech ($7,700)

Wide Receiver

Here's this week's target cheat sheet. I filtered it to receivers on this slate with at least an 18% team target share who also average at least 9.0 yards per target. I also narrowed the sample to the last four weeks to get some of the noisy non-con games out of here. Those are fairly arbitrary thresholds, but they still tend to paint a good picture of who is A.) Getting Volume and B.) Maximizing It.

Amare Thomas, Houston ($4,600) vs Arizona

We're going back to the well with Thomas and might continue to do so as long as he's this much of a bargain. We saw a $1,400 jump in salary this week after Thomas' huge outing against Oklahoma State when he pulled in seven of nine targets for 157 yards. He's not just a one-week wonder, though. He had at least 15 DK Points in each of his previous two games leading into that matchup. 

Now, Arizona rates confusingly well against the pass, allowing just 151.3 passing yards per game on 5.1 YPA. A closer look tells us that it might actually be legit. The 'Cats held Kansas State to 88 yards passing and BYU to 172 yards passing. They've only given up one passing touchdown on the year. 

Still, Thomas is locked into a great role for DFS scoring. A 30% target share with an 11.8 YPT figure over the last three weeks tells us that Thomas is going to get a healthy number of opportunities and should be able to squeeze enough out of them, even in a tough matchup. 

We can't expect a full repeat of last week's game, but at $4,600 with this kind of role, Thomas is still on the radar for this week.

Carnell Tate ($5,200) and Jeremiah Smith ($9,000), Ohio State at Wisconsin

I'm not reinventing the wheel here, obviously. Ohio State is Ohio State. It has a 33.5 implied total in Saturday's matchup with a moribund Wisconsin team. It pains me to say it, but Wisconsin has fallen on unbelievably hard times, and Saturday's game could get ugly.

Tate and Smith combine for nearly 60 percent of Ohio State's target share over the last three games and have produced impressive stats. Tate's been more efficient per target (12.2) but the touchdowns haven't been there because they seem to be going to Smith, who has four in that sample. Either way, both are feasting. 

Tate projects to draw a higher roster percentage considering the $3,800 gap and roughly equal usage. The field might be a little underweight on Smith for that reason as well. 

I'll be considering running at least one lineup with both Tate and Smith to go with Julian Sayin ($8,400).

Dezmen Roebuck, Washington ($4,300) at Michigan

Denzel Boston ($6,600) will be the popular Washington pass-catcher on Saturday and deservedly so. I want to draw your attention to an interesting pivot, though. Roebuck is starting to cook as the Robin to Boston's Batman.

In three Big Ten games, Roebuck has caught 12 of 16 targets for 227 yards and a touchdown. That's good for a 14.2 YPT figure on a 15 percent target share. Michigan will be keying on Boston, and that should open some opportunities for the freshman. 

Others to Consider:

• Mario Craver ($6,600) and KC Concepcion ($6,100), Texas A&M
• Deuce Alexander ($3,100), Mississippi
• Eric McAlister, TCU ($6,300)
• Michael Trigg, Baylor ($5,800)
• Eli Stowers, Vanderbilt ($4,400)