College Football DFS: Night Slate Week 9

Slates for the CFB evening games on Saturday are almost identical, except for the WKU/BYU contest on FanDuel.  We'll touch on that game briefly at the conclusion of the article.

SLATE OVERVIEW

Mississippi State at Alabama (-31) O/U: 63.5

Arkansas at Texas A&M (-14.5) O/U: 53.5

Missouri at Florida   (-14.5) O/U: 59

Ohio State   at Penn State   (+10) O/U: 64

Navy  at SMU   (-12.5) O/U: 58.5

Oklahoma   at Texas Tech   (+15) O/U: 67

North Carolina   at Virginia   (+7.5) O/U: 62.5

Western Kentucky   at BYU   (-30.5) O/U: 53.5 (FANDUEL ONLY)

The two games that stand out to me also have the highest Vegas totals on the docket. The red-hot Buckeyes travel to Happy Valley, and I imagine Justin Fields is raring to get a step up on Trevor Lawrence in the Heisman conversation while he's quarantined. The Nittany Lions will strive to keep it close, and we should see a lot of DFS fireworks emanating from that game. Two high-powered offenses will also clash in Lubbock as Spencer Rattler and the Sooners pay a visit to Texas Tech. Thirdly, you also have to pay homage to some excellent first-half numbers from Alabama as they face Mississippi State.  

NOTE: Be careful when referencing stats on the DFS sites as you crunch your builds.  Both sites are still getting back up to speed after a data crash from their stats providers. RotoWire's stats are back up and running, however.

QUARTERBACK

Justin Fields, Ohio State (DK $8,500, FD $10,700) @ Penn State

Before we get too deep, the overall look of tonight's field lends itself to more of a cash-focused spread, and that's largely due to the abundance of chalky plays available.  Uniqueness was a bit higher in variance and risk-reward pivots left me with fewer lineups than usual. That bring said, Fields is a quarterback candidate who warrants high exposure, regardless of the contest format. Fields went a sizzling 20-of-21 against Nebraska, scoring twice through the air and once on the ground. It's hard to argue against that kind of output, despite facing a stingier defense from Penn State this week. I wouldn't go so far as to say that this contest will decide who is yop dog in the conference, but it comes pretty close.  Fields is a very safe wager.

Mac Jones, Alabama (DK $8,100, FD $9,800) vs. Mississippi State

The possibility of this game being close is remote, but that doesn't mean that Alabama won't put a significant offensive stamp on the slate.  In fact, I think Jones may air it out a bit more than normal. Nick Saban may want to use this game as a litmus test to figure out life without premier wideout Jaylen Waddle.  I'll get into some Alabama targets below. Jones has beaten projections in four of five weeks and has 12 passing touchdowns to his credit. He lacks the rushing numbers Fields can get you, but he makes up for it with a superb supporting cast that can free him up to make plays through the air.

Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma (DK $8,000, FD $10,200) @ Texas Tech

In any other year, we'd place Rattler straight into the Heisman conversation, but flashier names will likely thwart that campaign this season.  His numbers are very Heisman-like, however. His defense has let him down twice, and although his accuracy isn't always stellar, the team's two losses aren't Rattler's to blame. Even in the post-Mahomes-Kingsbury era, you think offense when you see the Red Raiders on the slate.  Pairing Rattler with Henry Colombi (DK $6,900, FD $8,300) at the S-Flex is a fun contrarian option at the position.

RUNNING BACK

Najee Harris, Alabama (DK $9,300, FD $10,800) vs. Mississippi State

Would this guy stop telling me things I don't already know?  I hear you, I do.  For at least one RB position, I don't see any reason getting too cute. Take Harris, his 13 touchdowns, his stellar all-around yardage totals, and don't look back. Insanely popular?  Yes. We will make up for all this high- dollar impulse buying with some value below, so worry not.

Larry Rountree, Missouri (DK $6,100, FD $8,600) @ Florida

I'm not putting the Gators on upset alert, but let's look at Florida's defense for a moment.  They've yielded a dismal average of 33 points to opponents this season. Texas A&M lit them up with all facets of their offense in the 41-38 loss. Florida shouldn't sleep on a team that beat Kentucky last week and hung tight with Alabama for two quarters. Rountree was instrumental in all of those games, and his 126 yards and two touchdowns against the Wildcats is an encouraging line to build on.  He did it with a blistering 37 rushing attempts, so he may not break big runs, but his snap count will be gigantic.

T.J. Pledger, Oklahoma (DK $6,400, FD $8,800) @ Texas Tech

After starting 1-2, the Sooners have now won two straight.  What's the glaring difference in the past two games? It's clearly Pledger, who's totaled 253 yards and three touchdowns in their last two wins. Compared to the past two contests, Pledger was used sparingly in their two-game skid,   I'm not saying that Seth McGowan (DK $5,000, FD $7,000) should be ignored - in fact, he's a money-saving option who could do some favors for your salary cap.  I still like Pledger as the better option, however.

Ainias Smith, Texas A&M (DK $5,600, FD $7,700) vs. Arkansas

Even though I'm not very high on this game, Smith does a little bit of everything for the Aggies, so no matter how the game flows, Smith will get involved on the ground, through the air, or both. He's arguably one of the most versatile budget options on this slate and has four touchdowns to his credit through four contests.

WIDE RECEIVER

John Metchie III, Alabama (DK $7,000, FD $8,400) vs. Mississippi State

Between Metchie and Slade Bolden (DK $4,900 FD $6,400) it's clear who will benefit the most from Waddle's injury.  I think Mac Jones currently has more chemistry with Metchie currently. I like Bolden as a low-cost punt play in one or two GPP lineups, but Metchie will emerge as a more consistent presence in the offense. There's no denying the excellent play of Devonta Smith, but I think he's a bit too expensive.

Garrett Wilson, Ohio State (DK $6,300, FD $8,500) @ Penn State

Wilson was clearly Fields' favorite target against Nebraska in their first game, and I'd expect the connection to continue in State College. He showed flashes of his potential in the 2019 campaign and is poised to take on a more significant role in his sophomore year.

Marvin Mims, Oklahoma (DK $6,200, FD $8,200) @ Texas Tech

If you're looking for consistency at wideout, look no further than Mims, who only had one subpar game against Iowa State. Aside from that loss, Mims has shown up on Rattler's radar as the recipient of six touchdowns and a respectable reception count.  In what's expected to be an air show, Mims is set up well to excel in this contest. It doesn't hurt that Charleston Rambo is out for this one, either.

Jahan Dotson (DK $6,000, FD $7,400) and Pat Freiermuth (DK $5,000), FD $7,100) 

Penn State vs. Ohio State

Assuming that Penn State plays from behind, they'll need to get some work done in the air, and I mention both of these wideouts because they are attractively priced and are almost identical in my projections.  Freiermuth is the veteran and Dotson was clearly thrust into a larger role based on his performance against Indiana. Taking this route is a sensible way to go if you take the potential game flow into account.

Let's take a brief look at the BYU/WKU matchup, which will only play on FanDuel.

Western Kentucky @ BYU

You can't mention BYU without mentioning standout QB Zach Wilson ($9,200), who is probably the most popular target in this contest. Passing duties for the Hilltoppers falls to Tyrrell Pigrome ($7,500), who will own the starting job as long as Kevaris Thomas is sidelined. Despite the lopsided nature of this game, Pigrome is an intriguing pivot who works as a dual-threat under center. Although I wouldn't want him as my primary quarterback, I'm not opposed to giving him some looks in the flex position. If you're a true believer in this blowout, a sprinkling of Tyler Allgeier ($9,400) should do the trick for the Cougars' running game.  I'm not especially high on this game, and I suspect it won't be very popular either. Although your best options are high-priced, it's a stackable GPP game, especially if you throw in receivers on both teams' receivers.