College Football DFS: Weekday Slate MACtion Nov. 9

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Published on November 9, 2021

Slate Overview

MACtion got off to a great start last week as we were treated to five extremely entertaining games between Tuesday and Wednesday night. We saw unbelievable individual performances like Northern Illinois' Trayvon Rudolph setting a school record with 309 receiving yards, or Jack Sorenson's 283-yard performance against Ohio. The lowest-scoring MACtion game had 55 points and we had three games go over 70 combined points. If that's any indication, we could be treated to plenty of high-scoring games for our weeknight viewing pleasure this month.

Each game tonight has totals between 57.0 and 61.5. Western Michigan paces the slate in implied total at 43.0, nearly ten points clear of Eastern Michigan's 33.5 IT that ranks second on the slate. Miami of Ohio also has a respectable IT of 32.5 heading into its matchup against Buffalo.

Eastern Michigan and Ohio have the two worst pass defenses on the slate by passing yards per game, so that helps the likes of Ben Bryant and Kurtis Rourke in what should be a competitive and high-scoring contest.

There are some bad run defenses to target, too, with Akron and Ohio giving up over 200 yards per game on the ground and Buffalo (199.4) and Eastern Michigan (187.1) not doing much better. There aren't many true workhorse backs on the slate, but there are paths to attacking these bad run defenses with bargain running backs.

Below you'll find our suite of DFS tools along with matchup info and target data along with

Slate Overview

Below you'll find our suite of DFS tools along with matchup info and target data along with a position-by-position breakdown.

DFS Tools

Matchup Info

Target Data (Full Season)

Target Data (Last Four Weeks)

Position-by-Position Breakdown

Quarterback

Kaleb Eleby, Western Michigan ($7,500) vs. Akron

Brett Gabbert is the top salaried quarterback on this slate, but he's also coming off of what is an outlier performance. Gabbert hadn't thrown for more than 207 yards in any game this season before going off for 492 and five scores against Ohio last week. I'll fade a repeat performance from Gabbert and target Eleby, who gets a home matchup against Akron.

Akron has the fifth-worst scoring defense in the nation (38.0 PPG/A) and is poor against both the run and the pass. The Zips are more susceptible to the ground game but WMU runs enough plays to where Eleby should still be dropping back well over 20 times. And 20+ throws on a defense that allows 8.8 YPA (117th) on the season should lead to some solid returns for Eleby.

Ben Bryant, Eastern Michigan ($6,800) vs. Ohio

Bryant is seemingly the guy for Eastern Michigan now with Preston Hutchinson having played just once in the last five weeks. And Bryant has made the most of his opportunity of late as he's thrown for 640 yards and five touchdowns in his last two games while adding a rushing score as well. He's averaging over 300 passing yards per game against MAC competition.

Tuesday he gets to face Ohio, which was just gashed for nearly 500 passing yards and five touchdowns by Miami (Ohio) last week. Bryant is a clear value as the fifth-highest salaried quarterback option on the board at DraftKings despite his strong performance of late and cupcake matchup.

Zach Gibson, Akron ($5,000 DK, $7,900 FD) at Western Michigan

It wasn't clear until kickoff last week whether Akron would be going with Gibson or DJ Irons at quarterback, but the Zips stuck with Gibson and he played well. Gibson threw for 331 yards and two touchdowns while completing 77 percent of his passes. He has three multi-touchdown games in the last three games in which he's seen significant action. If you're looking for a punt play at quarterback with some upside, Gibson is your guy Tuesday.

Running Back

Sean Tyler, Western Michigan ($6,300 DK, $9,200 FD) vs. Akron

There's reason to be all-in on Western Michigan's offense Tuesday. The Broncos have an implied total (43) that's nearly 10 points more than any other team on the slate. We've touched on the passing game, but things set up really well for the ground game, too. The Zips give up a slate-worst 220 rushing yards per game on 5.8 YPC.

Parsing out which Western Michigan running back is a bit trickier. La'Darius Jefferson leads the team in carries (144) and rushing touchdowns (10) but lacks explosiveness with just 4.0 YPC. However, facing a defense this porous could smooth over those concerns. Tyler is still my preferred play from this backfield, though, as he has led the team in carries in each of the last two games and has racked up 276 yards (6.6 YPC) and four touchdowns in his last three outings overall. Both backs should produce Tuesday as Western Michigan is expected to be up big against the hapless Zips, so the run game will be featured. Tyler just offers more explosiveness and would be my pick if choosing between the two.

Jonzell Norrils, Akron ($5,700 DK, $7,200 FD) at Western Michigan

Running back is tough to sort out on this slate with several backfields set up as strict committees. Norrils, meanwhile, looks to be carving out the No.1 role in the Akron backfield, especially with the mobile DJ Irons taking a backseat to Zach Gibson at quarterback. He had a season-high 17 carries against Ball State and punched in a rushing touchdown for the second straight week. Western Michigan is relatively tough against the run (128 RuYD/G) but was gashed for 148 rushing yards against Central Michigan a week ago.

People will mostly be fading Akron even on a short slate but Norrils offers some rushing floor that makes playing him a decent way to get some differential at running back.

Dylan McDuffie, Buffalo ($6,900 DK, $8,500 FD) at Miami (OH)

Kevin Marks (leg) has missed three straight games and it's unclear at this time whether he'll be ready to go Tuesday. That could leave McDuffie as the bell cow again after being automatic in Marks' absence. McDuffie has 80 carries for 420 yards and four touchdowns in that stretch. Ron Cook and Mike Washington have combined for just 42 carries behind McDuffie over that same span, so McDuffie is the clear-cut No.1.

As for the matchup, Miami (OH) has a relatively tough run defense that allows just 3.8 yards per carry but Buffalo remains a run-first team (57% run play rate, 37th overall). That could come into play even more so Tuesday if Kyle Vantrease is not at 100 percent after being hurt in Buffalo's last game.

Wide Receiver

Jack Sorenson, Miami (Ohio) vs. Buffalo

On paper, Buffalo has a good pass defense that allows just 214 passing yards per game. However, if last week is any indication, MACtion this year might not feature a whole lot of defense, so I'm less inclined to fade an offense just because there's a supposedly tough defensive matchup. After all, Buffalo also surrenders 9.1 YPA and Miami runs the ball at the 95th highest rate in the nation, so Sorenson will be in line to test this defense.

Sorenson is coming off an absurd outing last week against Ohio with 14 catches for 283 yards and two touchdowns on 22 targets. We can't expect that again, but it's not like Sorenson completely came out of nowhere last week, either. Sorenson had gone over 100 receiving yards in each of his previous three games prior to the eruption against the Bobcats. He has a 30 percent target share and averages 11.3 YPT. That type of volume and efficiency make Sorenson worth paying up for Tuesday. Fellow wideout Mac Hippenhammer ($4,900 DK, ) has a 23 percent target share with a solid 8.5 YPT, making him a viable pivot off Sorenson while still getting exposure to this passing game or an affordable addition to a stack.

Jalen Walker checks in at ($3,300 DK, $5,600 FD) and drew 11 targets last week. He only reeled in two of those targets but ended up with 60 yards and a touchdown. He has a sub-50% catch rate so there's risk, but at near min-price there's some plausible upside if he's drawing a healthy amount of targets.

Hassan Beydoun, Eastern Michigan ($7,400 DK) vs. Ohio

Beydoun has been a consistent producer all season and has a team-leading 27 percent target share while also averaging 9.3 YPT. He's coming off his fourth game with double-digit targets and turned that into 12 catches for 197 yards and two touchdowns on 12 targets. Beydoun has caught at least five passes in five straight games, giving him significant floor especially on DraftKings.

Tanner Knue ($4,800 DK,$6,500 FD) is also an interesting play from the Eastern Michigan offense. He made his 2021 debut and got right into the mix with six catches for 55 yards and a touchdown on nine targets last week. To be that involved in his first game back bodes well for Knue's role moving forward. There's reason to believe it will continue, too, as he racked up 40 targets in six games last season. He's particularly interesting if you're pairing him with quarterback Ben Bryant.

Jaylen Hall, Western Michigan vs. Akron ($5,100 DK, $7,700 FD) vs. Akron

Skyy Moore is rightly billed as the top target for Western Michigan. That said, Hall checks in as a value on both sites, especially on DraftKings where he takes up just over 10% of your cap. Hall has really come on strong in conference play after being shut out of the box score against Buffalo in Week 5. In his last four games, Hall has caught 20 of 31 targets for 370 yards (11.9 YPT) and a touchdown.

Corey Crooms is the X-factor in the Western Michigan passing game, though. His huge game last week has earned him a $8,500 salary on FanDuel, but he's down at just $4,700 on DraftKings. So, is Crooms going to revert to his previous form where he had 10 catches on 28 targets for 143 yards in his previous five games, or is his 118-yard, one-touchdown showing against Central Michigan a sign of things to come? The salary should drive down his roster percentage on FD but he could be an extremely chalky play on DK. I'll stick with Hall, who has been a more consistent option throughout the season.

Konata Mumpfield ($5,900 DK, $7,200 FD) and Michael Mathison ($5,600 DK, $6,800 FD) Akron at Western Michigan

Akron is the worst team on the slate and has a slate-low 18.5 implied total. But small slates like this require some creativity and going after some Zips is a good way of differentiating yourself. While most of the exposure will be to the Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan passing games, Akron has a pair of bargain-priced options with high target shares. Mumpfield has a 32.6 percent target share over the last three games and Mathison leads the team with 227 receiving yards and two touchdowns in that span.

Akron's offense stepped up last week with 25 points, the team's second-highest mark against an FBS team this season. Now, we can't expect Akron to do to Western Michigan what Central Michigan did with 42 points (two special teams touchdowns) but this is a setup where Akron will be playing from behind for the bulk of the contest and the targets seem to be reliably channeled between Mumpfield and Mathison.

Tight end Tristian Brank ($4,100 DK, $5,600 FD) broke out for five catches for 38 yards and a touchdown on seven targets last week and is a decent GPP dart tonight as well.