College Football Picks: CFB Week 1 Odds, Picks, Predictions and Best Bets

Written by

Chris Bennett

Jeff Edgerton

Greg Vara

Updated on September 2, 2023 4:18PM EST

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Chris's Picks

Last season was a roller coaster of hot and cold weeks, finishing with a just above .500 record of 46-44 thanks to some late bowl game misses. But that's in the past, and we'll look towards the future and hope to get the 2023 season off on the right track. So many big lines and so much ambiguity make this week tough, but let's dive in and find some winners.

North Carolina State (-14.5) at Connecticut (Thursday)

Perhaps I'm too optimistic, but I'm all in on the Brennan Armstrong-Robert Anae reunion in Raleigh. In 2021 at Virginia, Anae schemed the Cavaliers' offense to 34.6 ppg, the 21st-best number in the nation. Armstrong broke out with 4,449 passing yards and 31 touchdowns. Anae left for Syracuse in 2022; Armstrong threw for just 2,210 yards and seven touchdowns. Meanwhile, Anae boosted the Orange from 24.9 ppg to 27.7 ppg, making Garrett Shrader a decent fantasy commodity. The Wolfpack have plenty of skill position questions, and UConn's defense isn't a pushover, so this could take some time to stretch out. But I like the Wolfpack to win this comfortably. Sidebar, N.C. State over 6.5 season wins.

Ball State (+26.5) at Kentucky

My brain doesn't usually allow me to look for underdogs, as it's just not how I think. And backing any MAC team against an SEC team is risky. We've got a low total of 48.5-49.5 depending on where you look, which means we are thinking something around 38-10 as an expected final. Ball State has faced Notre Dame, Indiana (twice), Penn State and Tennessee out of conference, scoring at least 10 points in every game, averaging 15.7 points. I don't think they'll get shut out, and I don't find Kentucky explosive enough to reach 40+ points, barring multiple mistakes from the Cardinals. The Wildcats have ample new bodies at skill positions and will need time to gel. They'll pound away up front, keeping the clock moving, too. No upset alert at all, just closer than four touchdowns.

Liberty (-9.5) vs. Bowling Green

I like this simply because the line is moving in my favor. It was previously as high as -12.5; that's a pretty hefty decrease. I don't believe Liberty is on upset alert despite being another program with many offensive new pieces, so simply, can they push this to a two-score win? They recruit the transfer portal well and should have a talent advantage. Former Coastal Carolina coach Jamey Chadwell had the Chanticleers score over 30 ppg in each of the last four years, so the Flames get theirs. I recognize they aren't a Power 5 school, but in the Falcon's last 10 non-conference games against that upper tier, they've been outscored 419-106. Bowling Green does have Missouri/Indiana QB transfer Connor Bazelak to lead them, but he has a 36:27 TD:INT ratio. I look for the Flames to pressure him into sacks and mistakes on the way to a comfortable win.

Wisconsin (-27.5) vs. Buffalo

This pick is the opposite of Liberty, as the number opened at -22 and has been pushed severely higher. Shop around and see if you can steal some points at a book, but I feel confident here under four touchdowns. The Badgers are going to chuck the ball all over the yard this season, in addition to having one of the best running backs in the nation. That running attack gives them a fallback if the passing game isn't in synch early, but they'll make plays offensively through both styles. And the defense likely doesn't surrender more than two scores.

Northwestern (+6.5) at Rutgers (Sunday)

I'm a glutton for punishment this week with so many bad teams being featured here. There's a really low total of 40.5 points, which we may not flirt with if both teams feature the run and the new clock rules further limit possessions. I simply find the edge Northwestern appears to have at quarterback with Cincy transfer Ben Bryant coming on board enough to like getting nearly a touchdown when points will be hard fought. And maybe the Wildcats have a little extra juice given their tumultuous offseason.

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Greg's Picks

And just like that, we're back for the start of the 2023 season. Is it just me or does the off-season get shorter every year? Normally, that's a thought that someone who enjoys the offseason would have, but that's not me at all; I love football and can't wait for the start of each season.

As always, it's best to tread lightly early in the season unless you've stumbled upon a golden nugget of information that not many others have, but information moves fast in this day and age, so the days of hot tips are long gone. With that said, it is still possible to find an angle that hasn't been exposed, and that's primarily what I try to do. I'm not the capper who dives heavily into stats; rather, I focus on the human angle, line movement and trends, so if you like your picks to resemble something a computer might spit out, I'm not your guy.

Without further ado, let's get into my picks for week one.

All lines courtesy of Draftkings.com

Michigan (-36) vs. East Carolina

East Carolina is not a typical early-season doormat. The Pirates have been a better team over the past decade than anything the MAC has produced, but this year might be a little different as the Pirates lost a lot of key players from last year's offense. Michigan meanwhile is still loaded and any players they lost from last year's team will be quickly replaced by someone nearly as good. It's rarely a bad idea to lay points with a big favorite early in the year, which gives me some comfort in making this pick. Michigan will do everything it wants on offense, and while I'd normally be worried about a late score if former ECU QB Holton Alhers was still at the helm, I'm not so worried about that with a first-year starter at QB.

Oklahoma (-36.5) vs Arkansas State

I'm not sure what to expect from Oklahoma this year, but I know that nobody in that program was satisfied with how last year unfolded. The defense was the main issue, and I have to think the Sooners will somehow fix that issue or at least play well enough that they aren't an embarrassment on that side of the ball. As for the offense, well that won't be an issue. They've got 12-year senior Dillon Gabriel back again, and that unit should hit the ground running. As for the Red Wolves, they should be a factor within their conference this season, but that won't matter in this one. If the Sooners come out focused, this one will be a blowout.

Iowa (-23.5) vs. Utah State

As is the case with the matchups above, this isn't a case of a great team vs. a terrible team. Utah State should be respectable this season, but this game is all about Iowa and its offense with Cade McNamara at the helm. The Hawkeye offense might not be great this season, but it will be better than this past season. How could it not be? If the defense shows up again this season and why wouldn't it, the Hawkeyes should be able to sprinkle in some blowouts this season, this being one of them. The nice thing about this number is that you don't have to worry about Utah State scoring so much that Iowa can't get on top of his number. If the Hawkeye offense can score a decent amount of points, they should cover this number.

Over (66.5) USC vs Nevada

How good is San Jose State? Is it significantly better than Nevada? I ask because the Spartans scored 28 points this past week. Is this going to be another season of poor defense for the Trojans or are they going to right the ship this week? I've found over the years that bad defense is tough to fix in seven days, so I'm expecting the Trojans to be a great over team this season. The offense is not in question; Caleb Williams and company are going to get their points every week. The only question will be how long they will be needed each week. If the answer is three or four quarters, then the game is likely going over.

Over (63.5) South Carolina vs. North Carolina

I'm a little concerned about the line movement here, but I'll stick with my pick nonetheless. This total opened at 70 and has since dropped quite a bit. Perhaps that's because there is an SEC team involved and the SEC generally brings the defense, but I'm not sure that's going to be the case this week. I like the over here because we're getting two proven QBs in Spencer Rattler and Drake Maye. South Carolina should have a decent, but not great, defense this season, and North Carolina, well, the Tar Heels need to improve a lot just to be average this season. Rust might come into play, but other than that, I don't see why the total ends up below 70.

Last Season: 35-33-0

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Jeff's Picks

Washington State (-11.5) @ Colorado State

Ben Arbuckle was the architect of Western Kentucky's high-flying offense and now joins the Cougars as offensive coordinator. Thanks to a massive influx of receivers from the transfer portal, Cameron Ward and the Washington State pass attack should be locked and loaded for the opener. The transfer trio of Isaiah Hamilton, DT Sheffield and Josh Kelly are shiny new targets for Ward. While top rusher Nakia Watson may end up on a snap count as he recovers from injury, that won't make much of a difference in this road matchup against Colorado State. The Cougars will also give Rams QB Clay Millen some problems on defense with a boosted secondary from the portal and returning pass rushers Brennan Jackson and Ron Stone. The Rams revamped their defense with nine transfers, but will that be enough to curb Arbuckle and his offensive game plan? The -11.5 spread seems entirely too thin. Look for Ward and company to go up by two touchdowns early and maintain a lead throughout.

Louisville (-7.5) @ Georgia Tech

Jeff Brohm is the new head coach for the Cardinals, and if you remember anything about Purdue's offense last season, you know that they kept the ball in the air often. Brohm found one of his former quarterbacks to direct the offense through the transfer portal in Jack Plummer, who threw for 3,095 yards and 21 touchdowns with Cal last season. With two seasons under Brohm at Purdue, Plummer is very familiar with his style. The Cardinals have one of the best rushers in the conference behind Plummer in Jawhar Jordan, who compiled 813 yards alongside Tiyon Evans last season. With Evans gone, Jordan has the backfield to himself, and he will figure large in the game against Tech, who were notoriously horrible against the run in 2022. What you'll get for Tech on offense is anyone's guess, as they grabbed Texas A&M QB Haynes King from the portal. King's numbers with the Aggies were nothing to write home about, but at least he beat out former starter Zach Pyron for the job. Despite the potential for promise with a fresh start in Atlanta, King will share the growing pains with the rest of the offense as they learn new OC Buster Faulkner's playbook. The former offensive quality control coach from Georgia has some OC experience with a few other teams, and while his time with the national champs is a feather in his cap, he faces an uphill battle with King under center. Although the Cardinals lost a lot of talent on defense, Louisville will find renewed lightning in a bottle with Plummer, and Jordan should run all over them. I would even tease this line up a few points.

TCU (-20.5) vs. Colorado

The arrival of Deion Sanders and his host of transfers is easily one of the most intriguing storylines of 2023, but they couldn't have written a worse first chapter. If any team needed an easy warmup game against an FCS opponent, it would be the Buffaloes. Instead, they are facing the CFP Championship runner-up on the road. Talk about a rude awakening! What the new-look Buffaloes lack in real-time gameplay, they make up for with some raw talent, most notably Travis Hunter, who is NFL-ready and has the goods to be one of the nation's top receivers. He'll need a big season from Shedeur Sanders to get there, who was a production beast at Jackson State. Over two years, Sanders logged an outstanding 6,970 yards and 70 touchdowns, and it's no wonder he's gaining mention for the Heisman in the Vegas books. I believe that kind of talk is a bit premature, however. There's no question that the Buffaloes will be a better team - they had nowhere to go but up. But are they good enough to match a TCU defense that could arguably be better than the 2022 version? I think Deion and Company will be in for a rude awakening. Most of the roster on the defensive side is intact, and although the team lost Max Duggan, it's easy to forget that he replaced Chandler Morris after he got hurt (against Colorado). Morris is healthy and ready to go, and he's supported by a transfer-loaded receiving corps and a solid running back in Ermami Bailey. I anticipate the Buffaloes will come in with a lot of attitude and some fancy play-calling, but I think they can only win by pushing the pace of this game. Look for a lot of three-and-outs, and give the Buffaloes the points.

Miami (-17.5) vs. Miami (Ohio)

This ACC-MAC matchup could be intriguing if the Redhawks play defense like they did in their 2022 campaign. Their scoring defense led the MAC last season, and several of their starters from last season are back. The problem for Miami (OH) is their offense. Brett Gabbert leads a crew of returning starters, but the 6-7 Redharks only averaged 20.3 points per game last season and didn't do anything special on that side of the ball. There's tremendous pressure on Mario Cristobal and the Hurricanes to turn things around, and they brought former Houston OC Shannon Dawson to revive the offense. Tyler Van Dyke seems to be happy with the hire, and when you consider Houston's scheme, you'll likely see Miami's quarterback airing it out a lot more. Van Dyke was bottled up with Josh Gattis calling the plays, but he has the talent to excel in the right system. Cristobal thinks Shannon is the right fit, and I'll hang my hat on that. This game could get out of hand if the Redhawks trip up on defense, and I'm pretty comfortable with the spread here.

North Carolina State (-14.5) @ Connecticut

At first glance, I viewed this as a potential trap game for the Wolfpack. Jim Mora and the Huskies surprised many last season, earning a bowl berth and six wins against stiff competition. With Devin Leary off to Kentucky and a host of other departures for N.C. State, it would be easy to write this game off and move on to the next. Instead, I'm confidently taking State, and I'll tell you why. Dave Doeren is an excellent coach, and he cleverly took Brennan Armstrong and Virginia OC Robert Anae out of Tony Elliott's struggling program in hopes of adding another dimension to a team that mostly ran the ball in 2022. The Wolfpack won't abandon the run entirely; they'll use a committee approach led by senior Jordan Houston, but Armstrong will helm a robust passing attack behind an experienced offensive line. The offense isn't the primary reason for taking this line, however. N.C State's defense features six returning starters, including Shyheim Battle and Aydan White. The shut-down corners represent the best the ACC has to offer at the position, and a solid defensive line and linebacker corps join them. The Wolfpack ranked 15th nationwide in scoring defense last season, and there's every reason to believe in a similar result. They face a UConn team with a transfer quarterback under center and a secondary with almost zero experience. The Wolfpack dusted UConn 41-10 last year, so it isn't clear why this year's line is so narrow.