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Chris' Picks
Man, when it rains, sometimes it pours. That's consecutive 1-4 weeks for me, and unlike the previous week where I thought there were some bad beats, nope, last week I was just bad as the losses weren't even close. Wish I could use my kids' schedules as an excuse and say I've been out and about and not watching games, but that's not true. All I can do is keep trying; this blind squirrel will find a nut eventually. Or maybe the play is to keep being awful and fade accordingly!
Liberty (-19) vs. Sam Houston State (Thursday)
This has ticked up a point since opening, but I'll back it at an under-three-touchdown number. Sam Houston State is awful offensively. Sure, they scored 28 points last week, but that came against fellow new FBS member Jacksonville State. In their three previous games against BYU, Air Force and Houston, they managed 10 total points and 443 total yards. Liberty isn't a defensive juggernaut, but they've been better as the weeks have progressed, and we know they can score, getting at least 33 in every game. 34-14 works for me.
Western Kentucky (-6.5) at Louisiana Tech (Thursday)
Let's not be fooled by Louisiana Tech's statistically strong pass defense. The yardage totals are low because everyone is running all over them, ranking second to last nationally by allowing 226.2 ypg and 5.2 ypc. We know the Hilltoppers want to air it out, but in their three wins, they've averaged 5.1 ypc, rushing the ball at least 23 times in each. They'll exploit the Bulldogs where vulnerable and get their passing stats on timely plays. LaTech's rushing offensive stats are also skewed, as they decimated North Texas (who is last against the run) and Northwestern State.
Central Michigan (-3) at Buffalo
Buffalo is awful, so I'll back a slightly less awful/mediocre team to handle this small spread. The Bulls are off a win over lowly Akron, which may be their only one of the year. None of their four losses are by less than this number, with that one close call coming against FCS Fordham. They are another woeful run defense, allowing 5.8 ypc. It's hard to get a read on the Chippewas to date, as they've been blown out by Michigan State and Notre Dame but handled their business elsewhere. They averaged 7.2 yards per rush last week against EMU and can do that again here in route to a win they can't afford to leave town without.
Syracuse (+8.5) at North Carolina
This number opened at UNC -6.5, and that's where I was heavily leaning. But it's moved up and very well could continue to do so, to which I'm happy to go the other way. Syracuse was somewhat more competitive against Clemson than the final score indicated, and they've been sound defensively overall, ranking 22nd against the run and 39th against the pass. Yes, following last year's loss to Clemson, the Orange went on to lose four more in a row and five of their last six. They'll bring a plus effort to avoid a similar slide. North Carolina is the superior team but has lost four straight coming off a bye, although three were to Notre Dame. They, too, will look to correct that trend, but with Miami on tap next, perhaps a lookahead is in store. Let's see if this number keeps rising, but give me the Orange to limit points and keep it a one-score game in the end.
Arkansas (+11.5) at Mississippi
The Hawgs are reeling, losing three straight, and have Alabama next. I expect that's going to reach five straight, but hopefully not from a lack of effort. They simply have to bring it here. Only one of those losses was by 12 points, and this seems like a clear letdown spot for the Rebels after last week's thriller against LSU. Simply, I don't trust the Ole Miss defense with a double-digit spread in conference. Arkansas has won three straight in this series and four of six, with two of those wins in Oxford. Raheim Sanders should look better in his second game back, and KJ Jefferson should make enough plays to keep this close enough in the fourth quarter.
Last week: 1-4; Season 9-16
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Greg's Picks
It's never good when you've had a losing week, but some weeks just hurt more than others. This past week is a great example of being kicked when down.
The week started on a high note as the USC-Colorado game cruised over the total, but from there, straight carnage. It started with a half-point loss on Boston College, tough but acceptable as BC wasn't in a great position to cover most of that game anyway. Stanford was next up, and while the final score appeared to be an easy loss, it was anything but as Stanford hung tough for a long time only to let the floodgates open in the second half. LSU was in a battle all game, but the Tigers were up nine with eight minutes to play, only to let the cover and the win slip away down the stretch. The final kick to the groin came last as Duke was up one point very late in the game while Notre Dame was driving to take the lead. With just under a minute left and the Irish conceding the fact that they'd gladly take a field goal to win the game, a 30-yard touchdown was scored. It didn't appear as though Duke let him score, though; it was just poor tackling. One simple tackle and Notre Dame sets up for a field goal and, at most, a two-point victory. And yes, this one made Bad Beats.
Over (53.5) Kansas State at Oklahoma State
The line on this game, KSU -11.5, is certainly eye-catching. While OSU hasn't won any national championships lately, the Cowboys have generally fielded solid squads over the past decade, but that's not the case this year. Still, I didn't expect a line like this. With that said, I can't side with a team that just allowed 34 points to Iowa State two weeks ago. Kansas State has a typical Wildcat team. Good on offense, good on defense, but not great on either. The problem that I've seen is that the defense giving up a lot of points. In their two most recent games (against their only two real opponents this season), the Wildcats have surrendered just over 30 points per game. My guess is that KSU covers this line, but I'm more confident in its offense than its defense, so I'll take what I see as the safe play and go over.
Oklahoma (+6.5) vs Texas
I'm a sucker for intangibles, and we all know that revenge falls into that intangible bucket. If you recall, Texas absolutely embarrassed Oklahoma in this spot last year, 49-0. Now, revenge alone is not enough to make a pick; you have to have something else to bolster your position. In this case, the other reason I'm siding with Oklahoma is that I think this team is different than the ones we've seen over the past decade. The Sooners have historically played well out of the gate, only to stumble in a spot much like this past week against Iowa State. That stumble hasn't happened yet, and not only that, the defense, which has been leaky ever since Bob Stoops left town, has actually held up to this point. This might actually be a complete Sooner team. Now, Texas appears to be legit as well, and if we're looking at resumes, the Longhorns have the edge, but I just have a feeling that the Sooners are going to bring their absolute best for this game, and maybe the Longhorns enter a little overconfident after what happened this past year.
Ohio State (-19.5) vs Maryland
I'm going to start this by giving props to the Terps; they've done everything asked of them this season. They're 5-0 entering this game, and they've won most games going away, but, and you knew there was a but, the competition to this point has been horrendous. They've played the two worst teams in the Big 10 and maybe the worst team in the ACC. Maybe they've reached new heights and are ready to challenge the likes of Ohio State, but I'm going to believe it when I see it. The Buckeyes didn't look so great the last time we saw them, barely eking out a win on the road at Notre Dame, but don't underestimate how difficult it was to play in that environment. A spotlight game on a Saturday night in a hostile environment is tough for anyone. Now they get to go back home to a more comfortable spot and deal with a conference foe, one that they've had two weeks to prepare for. With Penn State still two weeks away, we shouldn't have to worry about a look ahead either.
Under (46.5) Alabama at Texas A&M
I went back and forth on which way to go here, but eventually, I landed on the under. I was going to take Alabama because I think the defense is legit, but the Aggies have a pretty good defense as well, so why not just take the under? The 'Tide's struggles this season have been the fault of the offense, and only their great defense has kept them at just one loss. Alabama held Ole Miss to 10 points two weeks ago, the same Ole Miss team that just posted a 55 against LSU. The 'Tide offense appears to be getting better, but they are running into a test this week as the Aggies have picked up their defense since allowing 48 to Miami earlier this season. In conference play, the Aggies have allowed just 16 points per game, while Alabama has surrendered just 13.5 ppg. A&M is starting a backup QB, and 'Bama has yet to find its air game, so expect a lot of runs here and a running clock for most of the day.
Over (60.5) Colorado at Arizona State
Let's go back to this since it worked this past week. I think it's a pretty safe bet that unless the Buffaloes face a stellar defense, they are going to get theirs. In the four non-Oregon games this season, the Buffs have averaged over 40 points per game. As for the defense, well, we know about the troubles there. Colorado can't stop the run or the pass, and losing its best defender two weeks ago certainly hasn't helped the cause. The question here is, can ASU take advantage? Well, the Sun Devils can't run the ball at all, but they can throw it to the tune of 243 yards per game, so I think they'll get theirs in this game. Perhaps most beneficial to the over is that neither one of these teams is interested in running the ball; Colorado is 93rd in rush attempts per game while ASU is 106th, so there will be plenty of plays in this game, which usually leads to more points.
Last Week: 1-4-0; Season 11-14-0
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Jeff's Picks
I underestimated Auburn, which tarnished an otherwise spotless performance in Week 5. I'll usually martingale a 3-game parlay until I hit it, and it was the second consecutive week that I didn't have to multiply. This week, I am taking an Over/Under bet and going out on a limb with a couple of picks. No one ever got anywhere by playing it safe!
Washington State +3.5 @ UCLA
I've lauded Cameron Ward and the WSU offense several times in my DFS articles, and after a week off, I think they'll be back to their explosive selves against UCLA. While the Bruins are fine on defense, they are suffering through the growing pains of youngster Dante Moore as their quarterback, and the offense is sluggish as a result. Coach Chip Kelly has used Collin Schlee as well, and we will probably see him under center for a couple of drives. I think the Bruins will give Ward a hard time, but the Cougars will get too many chances after the three-and-outs start to pile up for UCLA. I'll gladly take Wazzu and the points.
Colorado (-4) @ Arizona State
This slate is narrow after the Dun Devils gave the Trojans a tough time, but USC's defense has a lot of issues to overcome if they are going to contend. Colorado has issues of its own, but they should be able to put up a good number against a defense that failed to hinder Caleb Williams. When you look at Arizona State on paper, they look very similar to Nebraska in terms of offensive production, and Colorado beat the Cornhuskers handily. The Buffaloes have given up a lot of points, but Shedeur Sanders and his host of offensive weapons are still in the Top 20 in total offense. Arizona State hasn't announced who will start at quarterback, but I don't think it matters that much.
Alabama (-2) @ Texas A&M
The Tide started to show some offensive zing after putting Jalen Milroe back in at quarterback, and Nick Saban hasn't lost two games before Halloween since the Ice Age. The Aggies have the best defense in the SEC on paper, but Alabama's defense has looked brilliant since losing to Texas. The winner of this game will also win the turnover margin, and I don't think Alabama will make many mistakes. They've got a chip on their shoulder with a lot to prove, and despite the hostile road environment, I think the Tide will pull off a narrow win.
UNDER 60.5 Texas vs. Oklahoma
Really? Two explosive offenses and take the under? Absolutely. The Sooners have allowed just 10.8 points per game to the opposition this season, and the Longhorns can forget about the run game against Brent Venables' defense. He'll make Quinn Evers try to beat them through the air, and he'll be rattled throughout the game by Oklahoma's pass rush. Dillon Gabriel has put up video game-like numbers, but their run game has been stagnant, and he'll face a Texas team that's shown success in containing big plays from quarterbacks. Evers and Gabriel could work some magic to get us close to this number, but I think it will be a challenge to get the total to 55.
Arizona (+21.5) @ USC
I'll be in attendance at this game, and as usual, it will be entertaining to watch Caleb Williams and his electrifying offense. Unfortunately, USC's uncanny ability to allow teams back into games with penalties, turnovers, and undisciplined defense is absolutely cringe-worthy. They should have obliterated Arizona State and only won by a touchdown. Even if Jayden de Laura (calf) doesn't play, I think the Wildcats are a stiffer test than the Sun Devils, with twice as many impact players on offense. Noah Fifita played well in de Laura's stead, and although the Trojans will lay down the hammer offensively, the Wildcats can also put up its share of points. The Over was a little too high for my taste, but I think the Wildcats can keep it within three touchdowns.
Last Week: 4-1-0
Season: 14-10-1
