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It's one thing to be bad. But it's another to spread that to others, and I've now managed to do that as well. The three of us don't talk before penning our sections, so for all three to pick the same game and then see it go from a 29-0 halftime lead to a loss is truly remarkable.
I gave real thought to doing this column in reverse, picking my five games and then immediately writing the opposite side. But then I got into the spreads, and there are some that I actually like. So here we go; we're either turning it around or entering a point past any return. Fingers crossed, and apologies in advance if I'm putting the kiss of death on your team.
Chris' Picks
Air Force (-10.5) at Navy
The running nature of these offenses and the subsequent clock churning doesn't make a double-digit spread easy to cover. But Air Force is rolling right now, leading the nation in rushing while averaging 37 points, a number skewed by a curious 13-point outing against Sam Houston State. Last week's seven-point win over Wyoming is their only victory by less than this number. On the other side, Navy just can't score, averaging a mere 20.3 points. Neither side is getting to those averages, as the total is just 34.5 points, so perhaps it's risky to back the Falcons. And perhaps they go easy on their fellow service members, but only Navy playing this like their Super Bowl will keep it competitive.
Missouri (-7) vs. South Carolina
This line makes no sense to me, and it is ticking up, so others seem to agree. One thing I try hard not to do is swing wildly across the aisles, but it's difficult not to do with South Carolina's defensive struggles. The Gamecocks allow 31.3 ppg and have given up 41 in consecutive games against Tennessee and Florida. Missouri is rolling, scoring 30+ in all but one game to date and at least 38 in three straight. The over looks like a nice play here, too, and it's honestly a spot where I almost went with my opposite line of thinking mentioned in the intro. I just can't get there. USC won't get enough stops to keep this close.
Old Dominion (+6.5) vs. Appalachian State
The Mountaineers haven't impressed all year, but even more so when on the road, losing at Wyoming and barely hanging on against Louisiana Monroe. And they are woeful against the run, allowing 188.8 ypg and 5.3 ypc. The Monarchs aren't an elite rushing team, but they average a decent 4.3 ypc and 151.7 ypg and recently gashed Marshall for 339 yards. Their blowout loss at Virginia Tech to open the year was unlucky, coughing up multiple fumbles in the second half in a competitive game. Their other losses are by six and three points. I think they've got a shot at an outright upset, but I will take the near touchdown I'm getting on the home team.
Clemson (-3) at Miami (FL)
I'm a diehard Hurricanes fan, so if I lose this one, it better not be in a one or two-point Miami defeat. But I've also watched this team for decades do the same thing: offer hope, lose once and let it snowball out of control. Why expect anything different here? The inexcusable loss to Georgia Tech was followed by a lack of second-half adjustments at UNC, leading to a blowout. The run game is struggling as Tyler Van Dyke isn't a threat to keep the ball, and he locks in on Xavier Restrepo far too much. Clemson is off a bye, likely gets top receiver Antonio Williams back, and will win this with smash-mouth play up front.
Utah (+7) at Southern Cal
Utah is elite defensively, more than Notre Dame, who forced the Trojans into five turnovers last week and allowed only 20 points. The Utes have surrendered 21 points just once to date. Sure, I don't expect Caleb Williams to be awful again, and Utah is likely still without QB Cam Rising. But I don't expect a huge home-field boost for the Trojans, and I expect Utah to find ways to score on their porous defense. They've beaten USC in three straight, twice allowing 26 points or less. If they can keep them under 30 on Saturday, they'll have a great chance to cover, at a minimum.
Last week: 1-4; Season: 12-23
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Greg's Picks
I've been on this planet for nearly 49 years, and I'm still not sure if the universe tries to send me signals, but after what happened Friday, I think I'm a believer.
The signal received on Friday night, after Colorado blew a 29-0 halftime lead, was that this weekend was not going to be pretty, and man, it sure wasn't. I feel fortunate that I salvaged a win, however. 1-4 is not the goal when you start the week, but after you start 0-4, 1-4 looks pretty good.
A quick recap: we had Colorado, which everyone knows blew a huge lead and not only failed to cover but failed to win. Purdue was a train wreck from start to finish. Oregon was a bit of a bad beat as the Ducks were one short 4th down conversion away from winning and covering. The under in the Auburn game was frustrating only because every time I turned around, LSU had the ball in Tiger territory. The lone win was on Duke, which managed to win and cover with ease, even without the services of its starting QB.
Ohio State (-4.5) vs Penn State
I'm slowly coming around to Ohio State. I picked against the Buckeyes this past week, and they made me look silly. I feel like it's taken a while to get on track, but they are finally rounding into form. As for Penn State, I'll be honest, I have no idea what to expect. The Nittany Lions could be the best team in the Big 10, or they could be what they've been for the past decade, good, but not good enough. They've done everything that's been asked of them to this point, but their schedule has been absolute cake. They've faced the dregs of the Big 10, and they haven't seen anything resembling a D1 offense to this point, so I have no idea if this defense is for real or if it's just a reflection of the competition. What I do know is that the Horseshoe will be rocking on Saturday afternoon, and it's not going to be easy to beat an OSU team that's only getting better.
Wake Forest (-1.5) vs Pittsburgh
I love this setup. Pittsburgh comes in off a big win against Louisville this past week, a game in which the Panthers were largely outplayed but still won because of turnovers, and now they are just slight underdogs to a Wake Forest team that's lost three straight games. Wake is the desperate team here, while Pitt might be a little overconfident after beating Louisville by 17 this past week. If we look at the numbers, we'll see that Pittsburgh has no offense to speak of, and even though the Panthers beat a good Louisville team this past week, they were outgained 430-288. Pittsburgh did not turn around its season this past week; it was simply the benefactor of good fortune. Wake is desperate to right the ship, and it will with a win this week.
Oregon (-18.5) vs Washington State
One thing I learned a long time ago is that college athletes don't get down for too long. You would think a loss like Oregon suffered this past week would stick with the players for a long time, but these kids are pretty resilient. In fact, I think they deal with loss a lot better than they handle success. With that in mind, I'm expecting Oregon to take out some frustration on the Cougars this week. Oregon was not "solved" this past week; they simply failed to make one last play on a 4th down. If the Ducks make that one play, the narrative is completely different this week. As for the Cougars, things have really taken a turn for Cameron Ward and the offense, as the once-potent attack has scored just 23 points in its past two games. Speaking of being "solved," I think that offense has been solved, and unless it can self-correct on the fly, it's going to be another long afternoon for the Cougars.
Over (60.5) Missouri vs. South Carolina
Speaking of teams looking to bounce back, South Carolina enters this game off a tough loss this past week to Florida. While the Gamecocks failed to win the game, it wasn't the fault of the offense, which put up 39 points. In the Gamecocks three non-Georgia conference games, they averaged 32 points on offense, while the defense has allowed 34 points per game in those same contests. Missouri bounced back this past week after a tough loss to LSU, and the Tigers appear to be back on track. Like South Carolina, the offense has not been the issue this season; the defense has faltered in spots. Of the two, the Gamecocks have the most issues on defense, allowing a staggering 321 ypg through the air. Brady Cook is going to get his, and Spencer Rattler should keep pace for long enough to get this game over the total.
Over (31.5) Iowa vs Minnesota
What exactly is going on here? Did we go back in time to the year 1920, before the forward pass was invented? Actually, if you've seen Iowa's offense this season, you might wonder if the Hawkeyes are using a playbook from the early 20th century, but I can assure you, it's not the plays; it's the players. So why am I taking the over here? I want to say it out of principle; after all, how can two teams fail to combine for more than 31 points? Well, Iowa and Wisconsin did just that this past week, but no, principal is not the answer. The answer is two-fold. We know Iowa is going to play to a lower score than most teams; that's a given. Minnesota wouldn't mind doing the same, but unfortunately, if the Gophers fail to establish the run, they won't be able to slow the game down, and when they have to resort to the air attack, that's when things get weird, which leads to reason number two, which is, things are going to get weird. What I mean by that is there are going to be turnovers in this game, turnovers that will result in easy points. There really only needs to be a couple of such events to happen for this number to go over.
Last Week: 1-4-0; Season 15-20-0
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Jeff's Picks
Week 7 started off slowly for me, as I joined most of the public with a loss due to Colorado's disappointing result, but rallied to get two bets through and finished with a 2-3 record. My individual bet article also hit paydirt, but we aren't counting those over here. There are some interesting spots to consider in the Week 8 slate, so let's try and keep our heads above water.
Tennessee (+9) vs. Alabama
The Vols have had a rocky season, but the spread is too generous against an Alabama squad that's also had its share of struggles. The scale-tipping metric for this game is Tennessee's excellent defense. They rank in the Top 10 in most major passing defense categories, and they have equal success in containing the run, holding rushers to an average of 3.1 yards per play. While I think Jalen Milroe is the right choice for the Crimson Tide, he'll likely commit some mistakes against Tennessee's secondary, and with Alabama's rushing attack failing to meet expectations, the Vols could take this game outright.
Missouri (-7) vs. South Carolina
I would give the Gamecocks a little more credit if the game was played at Williams-Brice stadium, but the Tigers should be able to cover at home. If you're measuring quarterback play, you have to give the edge to Brady Cook over Spencer Rattler. While Rattler's numbers are respectable, they pale in comparison to Cook, who has 2,030 yards and 14 touchdowns to his credit. He also has a top-notch wideout in Luther Burden, who is skyrocketing up the FBS wideout rankings. The Tigers also have a solid defense, so it's going to be difficult for Rattler to move the ball and keep up with Cook and the passing game.
Over 53 USC vs. Utah
If you see a total below 60 and the Trojans are involved, it's almost always wise to take the Over, and I still think that's true despite Utah's excellent defense and one-dimensional offense. Bryson Barnes has improved despite some struggles as the newly-minted starter, and Utah's run game showed signs of life with the return of Ja'Quinden Jackson and the surprising play of Sione Vaki, who is doing his best Travis Hunter impersonation at safety and running back. It goes without saying that USC's defense leaves a lot to be desired, and if you happen to see an under for first-quarter points in your sportsbook, I will take the Trojans, who have struggled to get going all season. I have no confidence in USC giving 6.5 to the Utes, but I think the over is a wise bet here.
San Diego State (-13.5) vs. Nevada
It's been a rough season for Nevada, and their seven-point loss to Kansas has probably been the highlight of their season. While the Wolfpack could get hot in spurts, I don't see how the Wolf Pack can keep up with Jaylen Mayden and his efficient offense. The Aztecs have struggled defensively at times, but the Wolf Pack's offense is nothing to write home about, and they don't have enough firepower to keep up with Mayden and a solid running game.
Wisconsin (-2.5) @ Illinois
While losing Tanner Mordecai for the season is a tough break for the Badgers, I think their defense could save them in this matchup. As long as new QB Brayden Locke can avoid big mistakes, the offense should be fine with Braelon Allen in the backfield, who will shoulder the load after the loss of Chez Mellusi. Luke Altmyer has thrown nine picks this season, and a litany of injuries at running back will hinder the Illini from opening up the passing game. Wisconsin should win the battle between two injury-riddled squads.
Last Week: 2-3
Season: 18-16-1
