College Football Picks: Picking Winners Week 13

CHRIS' PICKS

A lackluster set of picks last week, largely thanks to a lackluster effort from all three of my losing teams, who had nothing to play for and it showed. That's what makes late-season picking so challenging. Finding the right six, seven, or eight win teams that actually want to put out max effort isn't easy. So that caveat is put forth with everything that follows below. There seem to be countless tempting spreads for rivalry week, which has me proceeding with caution. I usually try to grab three games when the lines first come out Sunday night and stick with them despite movements. That's been tough this week as they are huge numbers, but it's worked two out of three times weekly Here's to a strong finish.

Ohio –24 vs. Akron (Friday)

Sunday night this line was 21 and Akron wasn't certain to have QB Kato Nelson. The Zips will have their signal caller, and the line has now moved as high as 24 in most spots. This will all come down to the Zips ability to limit big plays on the ground, and I don't think they can. They rank 85th against the run and have allowed more than 200 yards and 4.8 ypc in each of their last three games. Ohio ranks 11th in rushing offense and has gone for 392 yards or more in three of their last six. I don't expect they'll meet much resistance.

Temple –30 at UCONN

This is an absolutely huge number to go with, but the Huskies are so bad defensively, it's not as threatening as it appears. They've allowed 49 or more points in all but two games to date. Tulsa (23.8 ppg) put up 49 and ECU (26.4 ppg) hung 55 on Connecticut. They are also the nation's worst run defense by a whopping 58.8 ypg. Temple has plenty of offensive balance and firepower, and should put up a huge total here with minimal effort. UConn scoring 21 may not even be a concern.

Georgia Tech +17 at Georgia

The Jackets have won four straight and six of their last seven, going 3-1, 5-2 ATS respectively. They're a confident squad and this is simply a huge number when considering the limited chances the Bulldogs will have. UGA allows 4.1 ypc, a number that has been bettered by opponents in five of its last six. With a total of 60, this spread suggests a 39-22 type score. The Dawgs are looking ahead to Alabama, and won't have the ball enough to score 40.

Georgia Southern –11 at Georgia State

The Eagles are a cool 8-3 ATS on the year, and seem to have righted themselves after an impressive win over Appalachian State that was followed by losses against ULM and Troy. Similar to the Jackets above, the Eagles' option offense gets going and doesn't allow opponents a plethora of chances. Georgia State doesn't have the explosive offense to jump in front and ranks 123rd against the run, allowing 6.6 YPC. The road GSU side scores early and often.

Syracuse +7 at Boston College

This number just looks wrong. Both side are coming off emotional letdowns a week ago, and the uncertainty on how each responds is cause for pause. But this is a big separation, and the Eagles have allowed at last 281 yards passing in three straight weeks to mediocre passing attacks in Virginia Tech, Clemson and FSU. Even if Eric Dungey doesn't play, it's hard to see this being a two-score winner for BC.

Last week: 2-3; Season: 34-25-1


GREG'S PICKS

The final full week of the college football season is, by far, the best in my book. What could be better than two full days of college football and rivalries as far as the eye can see? Before we get to the games for this week, a quick recap of what was a disappointing 2-3 result from last weekend. I won with Nebraska, which was a dog fight, and the over in the Georgia game, which was as easy as they come. Of the three losses, only one was close, Purdue, which was up 14 in the fourth quarter and seven points in OT, but couldn't close. Of the blowout losses, Michigan was the most frustrating as the Wolverines simply didn't show up. I'm beginning to wonder if they are as good as we think, after all, they haven't beaten anyone this season and that defense that's so great could just be a product of a conference void of any offense.



Over 53 Iowa vs. Nebraska



There's still this false impression out there that the Hawkeyes are a ball-control offense backed by a staunch defense. That's my guess anyway, how else would this total be in the low-50s? Iowa has been lethal on offense this season and its defense isn't anything special. The Hawkeyes tend to play to a lower score at home, but in their past two low-scoring home games, one was a result of the opponent and one of the high winds. Nebraska has played to the over more often than not this year and you can bet that its offense is looking to let loose after being held in check by a stout Michigan State defense last week.


Under 76 Memphis vs. Houston

These are two big-time "over" teams, and if circumstances were different, I might be leaning the other way, but as it stands, I'm loving the under here. Houston will be without its all-everything QB D'Eriq King, which will obviously limit its offense, and on the other side, the Cougars are expected to get Ed Oliver back. Memphis relies heavily on the run and if Oliver is back, to both plug some gaps and put pressure on the QB, that should somewhat limit the Tiger's offense. The nice thing about this line is, there's plenty of room for scoring, we just need to avoid a back and forth shootout.

Washington State -3 vs. Washington



It's now or never for the Cougars. If they can't beat Washington, with this team, it might never happen again. This is really the perfect scenario for the Cougars as they are the better team, on fire and have the chip on their shoulder. I've been skeptical of these Mike Leach-led Cougars teams for years, as they always seem to blow it at some point, but this team feels different. The Huskies will not go down without a fight – they have more than enough talent to win this game – but it just feels like it's the Cougars' year.



Pittsburgh +5.5 at Miami

Pittsburgh is no joke, yet this line seems to indicate that the Panthers are somehow fraudulent. Pittsburgh is 6-1 in-conference, while Miami is 3-4. If the resumes of these two teams were reversed, Miami would be favored by 14 or more. The Hurricanes should not be favored in this game, let alone by 5.5 points. Perhaps there's an assumption that the Panthers will let up after clinching a spot in the ACC Championship game, but that's not how college teams operate. There's always something at stake, better bowl position for one, and I highly doubt a team that has played this well over the past two months is going to lay down in this spot.

Kentucky -17 at Louisville



I'm generally not fond of laying this much wood with a team that doesn't have much offense, but Louisville has been so generous on defense this season, I actually feel pretty good about laying the points. In fact, this is really the perfect set-up for a team like Kentucky, which has a stout defense and just needs some help from the other team while on offense. I was interested to see if the Cardinals had any fight in them after firing Bobby Petrino last week, but it seemed to make no difference at all, which is why I'm not worried, even though this is a rivalry game.


Last Week: 2-3; Season: 34-26