College Football Picks: Week 11 Recap and Best Bets for Week 12

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Updated on November 16, 2023 3:51PM EST

College Football Week 11 Betting Roundup

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In Week 11 College Football action, home teams went 42-24 straight-up (SU) for 64% wins and went an even 32-32 against the spread (ATS). The market did well in pricing overall totals, as the Under went 33-31 for 52%. In a ranked matchup in the SEC, the then No. 16 Missouri Tigers dominated the then-No. 14 ranked Tennessee Volunteers 36-7 as 2.5-point home underdogs and had the largest ATS margin of 31.5 points. With the impressive win, Missouri moved up to No. 11 while Tennessee dropped to 21st in the latest AP poll.

In the marquee game in the Big Ten, Penn State suffered a 24-15 home loss to the current No. 2 ranked Michigan as 4-point underdogs, marking their second loss of the season. They needed to defeat the Wolverines and then have Michigan defeat Ohio State in Week 13 action and then win the fifth tiebreaker (best record of the teams played in the West Division) used in a three-team tie in the divisional standings. In the SEC, No. 1 Georgia continues to improve each week and hammered Ole Miss by a final score of 52-17 and easily covered the spread as 11.5-point home favorites. The loss was the second of the season for Mississippi and ended their hopes of making it to the SEC Championship game.

Fade Teams Coming off Their Second Loss

Ranked teams that lost their second game in Week 11 or later in the regular season are just 27-31 SU, 24-34 ATS for 41% winning tickets, and 33-25 Over the posted total for 57% winning tickets over the past 10 seasons. So, with the second loss of the season occurring so late in the season and ending any hopes of playing in the College Football Playoffs or even the conference championship games, significant letdowns have occurred. In fact, if that second loss occurred in Week 11 action, those teams underperform to the tune of a 19-22 SU record, 17-24 ATS for 42% winning tickets. So, at the very least, Penn State and Mississippi may not be the best bets on the card in Week 12.

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College Football Betting Tools

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College Football Betting Algorithm

The following betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 23-10 ATS for 70% winning tickets since 2006. The requirements are:

· Bet on double-digit home underdogs.

· The total is 55 or fewer points

· The dogs allow an average of 325 to 375 yards per game.

· The favorite is coming off a game in which they allowed 6.3 or more yards per play.

· The favorite is an elite offense, gaining an average of 420 or more yards per game.

This algorithm targets a betting opportunity on Arizona State as a 23.5-point underdog when they host No. 6 Oregon as offered at ESPN BET.

College Football Expert Picks for Week 12

Double-digit underdogs to monitor in Week 12 based on the models

Date	Time	Day	Week	Team	Opponent	Site	Line	Total
18-Nov-23	5:00	Sat	12	Arizona State	Oregon	home	23.5	54.5
18-Nov-23	1:00	Sat	12	BYU	Oklahoma	home	24.5	57
18-Nov-23	9:00	Sat	12	Georgia State	LSU	away	32	71
18-Nov-23	1:00	Sat	12	Maryland	Michigan	home	19	50.5
18-Nov-23	1:00	Sat	12	Louisiana-Monroe	Mississippi	away	37	62
18-Nov-23	8:30	Sat	12	Florida	Missouri	away	11	59
18-Nov-23	4:30	Sat	12	Wake Forest	Notre Dame	away	24.5	46.5
18-Nov-23	5:00	Sat	12	Minnesota	Ohio State	away	27.5	50
18-Nov-23	1:00	Sat	12	Rutgers	Penn State	away	20.5	42.5
18-Nov-23	4:30	Sat	12	Tennessee	Georgia	home	10.5	59.5

College Football Best Bet for Week 12: Syracuse +6.5 vs. Georgia Tech (ESPN BET)

A Highly Profitable Betting Algorithm

Betting on teams that allowed 17 or fewer points in each of their last two games and facing a foe that is coming off a loss by 17 or more points has earned a 345-86 SU record and a 249-175-7 ATS mark good for 59% winning bets since 2009. If we drill down and filter that our team is on the road, their record improves to 163-47 (78%) and 138-70-2 ATS for 66% winning bets. If they add in only those games with a total between 50 and 54.5 points, their record soars to a remarkable 48-10 SU (83%) and 43-15 ATS mark for 74% winning tickets. If our team is a dog of 2.5 or more points, they have gone 9-1 ATS for 90% winners.

Both teams need the win to be bowl-eligible, and Syracuse does have a winnable game against Wake Forest in their finale. G-Tech has No. 1 Georgia on deck and no chance to win that game, so there is a lot on the line for both programs. I like what I saw out of the Orange offense last week in their 28-13 road win over Pittsburgh, scoring 21 points in the second half and holding Pitt scoreless. Granted, it was on a neutral field, but nevertheless, the Orange looked solid on both sides of the ball, and I see that positive development carrying over to this game as well.

College Football Live Betting Strategy For Week 12

Consider betting the Orange with 60% of your normal betting amount for an 8-Unit Titan. Then, if the first score of the game is a TD by GT, add 30% on the LIVE in-game line. Next, add the remaining 10% if GT earns the first two scores of the game by two TDs or a TD followed by a FG or even a safety. The next scenario for either the 30% or the 10% is to bet Syracuse if they lose the lead during the first half of action.

Bet on the Orange and sprinkle the money line with some pizza money.