College Football DFS Week 6: DraftKings Main Slate

College Football DFS: DraftKings CFB Week 6 Plays and Lineup Strategy

We're back in the saddle for DraftKings College Football DFS Week 6 after our guy Jeff Edgerton filled in for me while I was at the wedding for RotoWire soccer legend, Chris Owen. 

We've got a great slate on deck with 12 games and plenty of teams with high totals. As a general overview, this feels like a week where we can shop in the luxury aisles at quarterback and running back, and find some good bargains for our pass-catchers. 

10 teams have implied totals of 30 or more points. There are some elite offenses to stack and some terrible defenses to target. Let's dive in.

Slate Overview

High Totals, Tight Spreads

Finding a game with a high over/under where both teams are expected to be competitive is always a primary goal for building our lineups. Games like that create a great scoring environment on both sides with little worry about the star players being pulled, like we do when a game gets lopsided. 

• Baylor (-6.5) vs Kansas State (OU 61.5): I'm not fully sold on this total -- I can see this going under. That said, we have a good setup here. Baylor has the No.26 offense per SP+ and No.15 per FEI. K-State's offense has been bad, but Baylor should help smooth that over with its weak defense (86th SP+, 81st FEI). It's tough to fully load up on this one due to some high-salaried options like Sawyer Robertson ($9,300), Bryson Washington ($8,200) and Avery Johnson ($7,600). The soft defensive matchup might unlock Johnson a bit. His top target, Jayce Brown ($7,600), commands a stout 27.5% target share but averages just 6.9 YPT with a 61 percent catch rate. Much to think about. 
• Louisville (-7.0) vs Virginia (OU 61.5): Another game with a suspect total, though we should still see a decent chunk of points with both sides. Initially, I was concerned about going all-in on Virginia in this spot -- they're hitting the road after their biggest win of the decade(?) and facing a good Louisville team. That said, we aren't seeing a huge salary bump for these UVA options. Chandler Morris is just $6,700 and has a 10:4 TD:INT along with 169 rushing yards and four touchdowns. In ACC play, Morris has averaged 36 pass attempts. If they're playing from behind, we could see him push for 40. His top receivers, Trell Harris and Cameron Ross, are $4,400 and Jahmal Edrine is $3,500. UVA has the No.80 defense per FEI and 65 in SP+ so Louisville's offense should feast. 
• Iowa State (+1.5) at Cincinnati (55.5): We've seen this total climb from 51.5, which is a good sign. The spread here makes both sides playable. We can expect both teams to get into the mid-20s. The best part about this game for our purposes is that it's very easy to load up on. Neither quarterback is over $7K and only one pass catcher is above $3,600 (Cyrus Allen, $5,700). Iowa State doesn't have a target hog -- no Cyclone has a target share north of 15% -- so we're gonna need to go touchdown hunting if we're going after that group. On the Cincinnati side, Allen (26%) is heating up and coming off a monster game against Kansas. 

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Quarterback

Sawyer Robertson, Baylor ($9,300) Baylor vs Kansas State

I'm not really going out on a limb touting the highest-salaried QB on the board, but alas. It's still always a decision whether to take the plunge or hunt for value elsewhere. The top guy isn't always worth it. This week, Robertson should be.

Robertson has three games with at least 29.9 DK points, all of which came against quality opponents (Auburn, SMU, OK State). Okay, maybe not OK State. Oh well.

Robertson's calling card is his passing prowess. He's not going to get us much on the ground, and that's okay. He's thrown 17 touchdowns in five games and averages 342 yards per game. Kansas State has been solid against the pass, allowing 6.5 YPA with five TD allowed and three picks. The Wildcats also haven't really been tested by an elite passing game, either. And this will be in Waco. 

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I'm pushing the chips to the middle on Robertson this weekend.

Avery Johnson, Kansas State ($7,600) at Baylor

We mentioned Johnson in the previous section, and we'll expand on that a little more now. Bluntly, his passing isn't what's going to help us here. He has exactly one game with over 200 passing yards against an FBS opponent. And, it's fair to note that his rushing hasn't been as good as expected, either.

That being said, the Week 5 game against UCF gives us some reason for optimism. He completed 72 percent of his passes and tossed two scores while running for 75 on 12 attempts. That was his busiest day as a runner this season, and based on his history, we know he can cause some serious damage on the ground.

Baylor has struggled against running quarterbacks so far, allowing 241 yards and three touchdowns on 52 attempts. Jackson Arnold and Sam Leavitt each had plenty of success on the ground against them. 

We're banking on this game pushing for close to 60 combined points and the Baylor offense pressing the issue, which will keep Johnson busy. 

Ty Simpson, Alabama ($7,300) vs Vanderbilt

This feels a tad low for Simpson, who has posted at least 25 DK points in each of his last three outings. Now, Vanderbilt is certainly no joke as we learned last year and have learned again so far this year. But this remains a really good spot for the first-year starter.

Simpson pilots an Alabama offense that throws it 53.7 percent of the time. He's clearly comfortable in that setup, completing just under 70 percent of his passes at a 9.0 YPA clip while posting an 11:0 TD:INT. At home, albeit against UL Monroe and Wisconsin, Simpson has completed 89 percent of his passes at 13.2 YPA with seven touchdowns. 

The slate makes it a little tricky to stack Simpson but it's doable. Ryan Williams ($8,100) can take a game over, and Germie Bernard ($6,900) has actually led the Tide in every major receiving category. Isaiah Horton ($5,900) also made his presence felt last week with nine targets.

With Alabama only favored by 10.5 points, it's fair to expect another busy day through the air for Simpson. 

Noah Fifita, Arizona ($8,800) vs Oklahoma State

If you play baseball DFS, you know there's a salary bump on bats when games are at Coors. This is the college football equivalent. Playing against Oklahoma State is going to raise the price tag for anyone playing them. This week, it's Fifita and Arizona.

Now, Fifita hasn't been above $7,300 all season, and outside of his big game against Washington State, he's been solid but unspectacular. It doesn't really matter if he's been middling against good opponents, though, because Oklahoma State is not a good opponent. The Pokes have given up 319 and 393 yards and seven combined passing touchdowns against P4 opponents. It also helps Fifita's bottom line that he's running a decent bit with 34 rushes for 54 yards and three scores.

Even if Fifita isn't great in a vacuum, he's a good play this weekend and his targets are not goosed on the salary with Javin Whatley at $4K, Chris Hunter at $5,600 and Kris Hutson at $5,500. More on them later.

Running Back

Penn State RBs: Nicholas Singleton ($8,400) and Kaytron Allen ($5,700) Penn State at UCLA

You almost feel bad for UCLA in this spot. Penn State is coming off another devastating loss in a big spot and will be looking to take out its frustrations against the lowly Bruins. 

Penn State has a 37.5 implied total, and I could see them pushing past that. UCLA's defense allows 233 rushing yards and 5.4 yards per carry. So, we know Penn State is going to run wild. Now we must consider the game theory.

Kaytron Allen ($5,700) is going to be one of the most popular plays on this slate. It doesn't take a rocket surgeon to see that he's outgained Singleton by 127 yards on six fewer carries thus far. He's churning out 7.1 YPC while Singleton is stuck in the mud at 3.85. 

Allen deserves to be a core part of your builds this weekend. The cake matchup and the bargain salary are going to make it hard to fade him. Singleton, meanwhile, is interesting in that we know he has a high ceiling, and we can also assume that his roster % will be low based on his mediocre production to this point. If he can't get going here, then when will he? In tournaments, I'll roll the dice once or twice on Singleton. 

Ismail Mahdi, Arizona ($6,100) vs Oklahoma State

Mahdi has a strong handle on Arizona's backfield work (36%) and is making the most of it with 50 carries for 348 yards and a touchdown. His main competition, like Quincy Craig and Kedrick Reescano, have been quiet. Reescano is the biggest threat, but he didn't play last week despite being clear from the injury report. 

Mahdi is starting to cook with 35 carries for 274 yards in his last two games. He doesn't have a rushing touchdown in that sample, but that almost feels like bad luck considering how explosive he's been. Oklahoma State's run defense is abysmal, allowing 213 rushing yards per game. It's going to be tricky figuring out which pieces to go after from this Arizona offense, but Mahdi makes sense whether you're playing him unstacked or as part of a Wildcat platter featuring Fifita and a pass-catcher. 

Michael Turner, Baylor ($3,000) vs Kansas State

This hinges on Bryson Washington's status. Washington is questionable as of Friday. He is coming off a season-low 10 carries last week, and even if he's available, Washington might not be 100 percent. 

Turner got some burn in his stead last week with 13 carries for 47 yards. Now, Kansas State is a tougher matchup than Oklahoma State, but if Turner is projected for 10+ carries, that's more than enough to take the plunge at min-price. K-State also isn't that much tougher than OK State against the run, allowing 181.6 RuYD/Game.

Keep an eye on the injury report going in but luckily, this game is in the early window, so if Turner's projection gets nerfed by a healthy Washington, it's easy to move off of him without getting stuck. 

Others to Consider

• Jadarian Price, Notre Dame ($5,800)
• Dylan Edwards, Kansas State ($7,500)
• Kaden Feagin, Illinois ($6,300)

Wide Receiver

Here's this week's target cheat sheet. I filtered it to receivers on this slate with at least an 18% team target share who also average at least 8.5 yards per target. Those are fairly arbitrary thresholds, but they still tend to paint a good picture of who is A.) Getting Volume and B.) Maximizing It.

Josh Cameron, Baylor ($6,700) vs Kansas State

Cameron has been a consistent producer all year. He leads the team with an 18.4 target share and converts those opportunities into 10.4 YPT with three touchdowns on 27 grabs. He's had at least five targets all but one game. 

He's the best pairing option if you're rostering Sawyer Robertson, and he makes sense on his own given that $6,700 is a bargain relative to his production. Baylor is expected to score well over 30 points, and Cameron should play a role in that. 

Other interesting Baylor options include Kole Wilson ($4,300) and Kobe Prentice ($3,700).

Jordan Faison ($4,900) and Malachi Fields ($3,800), Notre Dame vs Boise State

Notre Dame leads the slate in expected points (41.5), and while the Irish are justified to run it plenty this week with Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price in the backfield, they still have an efficient passing attack. It's why CJ Carr is billed at $9,100, the second-highest mark on the slate for a QB.

Carr has attempted at least 30 passes in three of his four games and has gotten better in each outing. Last week against Arkansas, Carr ripped it up for 354 yards and four touchdowns on 22 completions. It won't be that easy this week, but it's still a great setup if we're following the spread and the total.

Faison is consistently seeing 6-to-8 targets per game and doing damage with those opportunities. In the last two weeks, he has 12 catches for 194 yards and a touchdown on 14 targets. He's going to get opportunities again Saturday.

Fields, meanwhile, runs a little more hot-and-cold on the volume front but is clearly the big-play threat in this offense. 11 of his 22 targets came in one game (Week 2 vs. Texas A&M), though that hasn't stopped him from producing. He's gone for at least 70 receiving yards in three straight games and averages 21.2 yards per reception.  $3,800 makes Fields a worthwhile dart throw, seeing as he's the threat to get you close to 3x value on just one play. 

Javin Whatley, Arizona ($4,000) vs Oklahoma State

Whatley is the one Arizona wideout to make the cut for the table above. He's got a healthy 18.3% target share to go with strong efficiency (11.5 YPT, 74% catch rate). Recency bias might steer you toward Hunter or Hutson, who each drew 10 targets last weekend against Iowa State while Whatley was somewhat bottled up with four catches for 27. 

I see warts in Hunter and Hutson's profiles that are less apparent for Whatley. Hunter has 21 targets (good) but just 10 catches (bad). Hutson has only been targeted in two of his three games and 10 of his 12 targets came last week.  There's a case for either of them in this setup, and I'd imagine the roster % will swing towards Whatley for his stats and salary considerations, so it might be wise to mix either Hunter or Hutson into Arizona stacks in GPPs. Ultimately, though, Whatley is the best overall option from this offense this week. 

Zachariah Branch, Georgia ($4,800) vs Kentucky

This will be quick. Branch is Georgia's best and most productive receiver. He's got a 20% target share. And the Dawgs are coming off a loss with Kentucky coming to town. Kentucky allows 8.2 YPA. Georgia is expected to score 35 points. Do with this information what you will. 

Jeff Caldwell, Cincinnati ($3,500) vs Iowa State

We like this game for its stackability, and Caldwell is a nice part of that. He's just $3,500, hovering around in the same tier as guys who may or may not even get snaps or targets. Caldwell has a 19% share and averages 9.0 YPT. He hasn't been overly efficient in terps of the catch rate with 12 on 22 targets, so we can't count on him to be  PPR merchant for us. However, he's a big play waiting to happen with 16.6 YPR. 

If that case isn't good enough for you and you don't want to pay up for Cyrus Allen, I'd like to put Joe Royer ($3,600) on your radar. He's one of the best pass-catching tight ends in college football, having reeled in 50 receptions last year. Royer has yet to have a complete game with a ton of receptions, but there are signs that he's still operating at a high level with 10 catches on 12 targets for 162 yards and two scores. 

Others to Consider

• Chris Bell, Louisville ($7,100)
• Caullin Lacy, Louisville ($5,300)*
• Germie Bernard, Alabama ($6,900)
• Eli Stowers, Vanderbilt ($3,900)
• Bryant Wesco, Clemson ($7,300)