DraftKings College Football: Week 6 Main Slate

Welcome to this week's main slate breakdown over on DraftKings. It's a 12-gamer featuring a strong mix of SEC, Big 12 and ACC matchups with plenty of intrigue. There's also a wildcard on the board with BYU entering the main slate fray after being relegated to night or showdown slates through its first three games. The Zach Wilson-led Cougars are averaging 49.3 points per game, good for second in the nation, and allowing a mere 8.0 PPG by contrast. That's a dangerous combo of explosive offense and dominant defense, and even though the competition hasn't been great thus far, it's not as though UTSA (+35) is a major threat to get the Cougs off track. Both Wilson and receiver Gunner Romney are the top-billed players at their respective positions, and how they fare along with how the field approaches them will carry massive implications on this slate. Below you'll find our DFS Tools along with matchup info and my positional breakdown of the slate. 

DFS Tools

• DraftKings Lineup Optimizer
• NEW Matchups Page (Vegas odds, opponent averages, etc.)
• Advanced Lineups Page
• Stats
• Team Trends
• Targets
• Defense vs. Position
• Team Rankings
• Podcast

Matchup Info

Position by Position Breakdown

Quarterback

Brennan Armstrong, Virginia vs. North Carolina State

Finding value at quarterback this week is paramount and Armstrong provides it. His usage is exactly the type of thing we look for at this end of the quarterback pool. Of the quarterbacks who have played two or fewer games, only Mississippi State's K.J. Costello has attempted more passes than Armstrong (88). There's a tradeoff; Armstrong is completing just 54.5 percent of his passes at 6.1 YPA, but that lack of efficiency gets smoothed over by his sheer compiling of numbers over the course of the game. 

Not only is Armstrong going to the air upwards of 40+ times, but he's also a key component in the Virginia run game. He owns a team-high 43 percent rushing share (136 total rushing yards) and a touchdown. 

The matchup isn't overly imposing either as North Carolina State has an average defense by S&P+. Armstrong's combination of high passing and rushing volume makes him my favorite quarterback play in the sub-$7K range.  

Collin Hill, South Carolina ($6,400) @ Vanderbilt

Like Armstrong, Hill is a high-volume passer who draws a favorable matchup. He doesn't have Armstrong's rushing upside and the efficiency hasn't been great yet (61.6 completion percentage, 5.8 YPA) but he's also had a tough schedule with Tennessee and Florida serving as his welcome to the SEC. 

He catches a break this week with Vanderbilt, which ranks 5th worst in our Adjusted Defense metric. The 'Dores have surrendered 8.1 YPA to opposing quarterbacks and aren't going to get things figured out overnight. 

Furthermore, South Carolina is heavily favored (-13.5) but not so much to where we have to worry about Hill being pulled at halftime. Hill might not need to air it out 40 times as he has in his first two games with the Gamecocks, but 35+ attempts with better efficiency against a terrible defense will help him give you the returns you need from a bargain bin quarterback. 

Zach Wilson, BYU ($9,500) vs. UTSA

We finally get Wilson on the main slate and there's some sticker shock as the Cougar QB paces all players in salary at $9,500. Not even Sam Ehlinger had cracked the $9K mark until this week and he still trails Wilson by $300. So, if you're not familiar with Wilson's stylings, let me fill you in.

In three games, Wilson has completed an outrageous 83 percent of his passes at a 13.2 YPA clip. Six of his 72 attempts (8.3 percent) have gone for touchdowns. Now, he has faced soft competition thus far (Navy, Troy, UTEP) but it should be just as easy for him Saturday with UTSA coming to town. UTSA is giving up 6.1 yards per play (49th/74) and hasn't played anyone in the same stratosphere as BYU, having gone up against Texas State, Stephen F. Austin, and Middle Tennessee State. 

The question is how much will BYU need Wilson to win this one comfortably given the massive 35-point spread. Well if BYU comes close to covering that number -- and it will -- it'll be mostly Wilson's doing. Even if he's only throwing it 20 times, his YPA should still provide for a strong yardage output. And on top of that, Wilson has five rushing scores to boot. This is a Name Your Score setup for Wilson and the Cougs. The key in using Wilson then becomes how you build your lineup with nearly 20 percent of your salary tied up in one player. 

Sam Howell, North Carolina ($7,000) vs. Virginia Tech

We're all waiting for the North Carolina offense to show up after a shaky start to the year. Howell is the catalyst, and while his YPA and completion rate are roughly in line with where they were as a freshman, his touchdown rate is nearly half of what it was. Nine percent of his passes went for scores in 2019, and though it's still early, only five percent of his 2020 attempts have gone to the house. Maybe it's a coincidence, but the big plays have evaporated thus far, too. Nine percent of his passes went for completions of 25-or-more yards last year and that number is down to five percent this year as well. 

Again, it's so early and Howell's impressive freshman year should earn him some benefit of the doubt. This week marks the first time all season that North Carolina is playing in consecutive weeks, so look for this offense to find a sustained rhythm beyond just the opening script here. 

Howell is extremely talented and so is his supporting cast. The North Carolina offense will get on track sooner than later and I'm betting that it starts Saturday. 

Running Back

Kevin Harris, South Carolina ($6,700) vs. Vanderbilt

I like Kevin Harris this week. Exhibit A:

Exhibit B: Harris has a firm grip on the South Carolina backfield with 35 carries in two games, along with five catches for 35 yards and a score. He's only averaging 4.43 YPC so far but he was an 8.5 YPC player -- albeit in a smaller sample -- last season. Now he gets to push for a heavy workload against a Vanderbilt defense that coughs up 5.8 YPC. Harris' lack of name recognition and seemingly inflated price should keep his roster percentage down, but don't be too quick to overlook the new South Carolina workhorse with a great matchup.

Breece Hall, Iowa State ($8,600) vs. Texas Tech

Hall needs no introduction. In the context of this slate, though, figuring out if you want to pay up at running back is a tough call given the lack of viable punt plays elsewhere. Even with that being the case, Hall is worth it this time around. Texas Tech has been effective against the run by its standards so far this year but it hasn't faced a run game like Iowa State's with Hall. 

Hall hasn't had fewer than 100 yards in any game this season and has scored in each outing. In fact, he has found paydirt multiple times in each of his last two outings. He projects to see 20+ carries and that many chances against this Texas Tech defense will net some serious production. 

Looking at the other running back north of $8K, Khalil Herbert deserves to be in that part of the pool given how he has started the season. I fear that North Carolina's run defense is going to stifle the Virginia Tech rushing attack and force the Hokies more to the air. If you're paying up at running back, Hall is the call. 

Tank Bigsby, Auburn ($5,600) vs. Arkansas

Auburn has found its next star running back in Bigsby. The stats might not wow you yet as Bigsby has just 14 carries for 46 yards through two games, but there's more to his game. Bigsby was used heavily out of the backfield as a pass-catcher last week with seven grabs for 68 yards on eight targets. He was also the only Auburn running back who got a carry against Georgia. 

Arkansas isn't a pushover on defense allowing just 3.2 YPC through two games. Still, it seems that Bigsby will be the primary back for Auburn and that's reflected in his DK salary. Given the way Auburn lost and abandoned the run last week, there's a good chance that coach Gus Malzahn gets more involved with the offense and keeps the Tigers more committed to the run this time around. Even with light stats so far, Bigsby is a major talent and a breakout is coming as soon as Saturday. 

Wide Receiver

Jake Smith, Texas ($5,200) vs Oklahoma

So Smith led the Longhorns in targets last week and scored a touchdown but his salary is down $300 for Saturday? Against Oklahoma of all teams? Alrighty then.

To be fair, Smith wasn't explosive with just 49 yards on his nine targets (six receptions) and he had a drop that could've led to big yardage. Still, it was Smith's first game of the season after being hampered by a hamstring injury. The fact that he was that involved right away is the biggest takeaway for me and that level of volume should continue or even increase Saturday. 

As for the matchup, Oklahoma is surrendering 9.7 YPA to opposing quarterbacks and that's having faced quarterback in Brock Purdy and Skylar Thompson that are several cuts below Sam Ehlinger. 

Look for Smith to lead the team in targets against a soft defense Saturday, and while players like Joshua Moore and Brennan Eagles are more explosive options, this DraftKings scoring format bolsters Smith's floor and his salary is so low that it's hard to ignore. 

Billy Kemp IV, Virginia ($6,000) vs. North Carolina State

I'm chasing volume with my mid-tier receivers and Kemp offers it in a big way. As we've established, Virginia is one of the most pass-happy offenses in the nation, let alone the slate, averaging 45.0 attempts per game. Kemp is a major part of that passing attack, drawing a 31 percent target share. Put another way, Kemp has gotten 13 and 14 targets in his first two games, respectively, and has caught 17 of them for 166 yards. 

Admittedly, that's poor explosiveness (6.1 YPT) but the high target and catch volume helps make that less of an issue. Plus, there's a chance it ticks up this week given that North Carolina State allows 8.9 YPA, the fourth-most of any defense on the slate. If you need a floor play from the mid-tier, Kemp should be on your shortlist. 

If you're aiming for a little more upside from the Virginia passing game, Lavel Davis ($4,000) has a low catch rate but averages a preposterous 26.5 YPR on six grabs (16 targets) and he has two touchdowns. Tight end Tony Poljan ($4,000) can also be a problem for NC State at 6-foot-7 and 265 pounds. He has seven catches for 69 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets through two games and has seen at least five targets in each outing. 

Dax Milne, BYU ($6,800) vs. UTSA

If you can't find a way to build a lineup you like with Wilson and Gunner Romney, a pivot to Milne makes sense. Milne has just as many targets (21) as Romney, and though his explosiveness is a mere 12.7 YPT compared to Romney's 17.8, it's still elite. 

Of the FBS receivers with at least 20 targets, Milne ranks fifth in YPT. 

Again, Wilson may not be asked to throw much more than 25 times Saturday, but his ridiculous efficiency plus Milne's solid target floor should keep him involved enough to return value despite the inflated price tag. 

Taye Barber, TCU ($6,500) vs. Kansas State

TCU's passing game has turned a corner with Max Duggan finally living up to the hype and it's now something to target for our purposes. Barber continues the theme from this tier of receivers in that he may lack top-end explosiveness compared to other options in his offense but his target volume gives him an edge. He has drawn 15 targets while no other TCU receiver has seen more than six. And Barber's explosiveness is nothing to sneeze at, either. He's averaging 8.87 YPT and has caught 12 of those 15 targets. With a matchup against Kansas State's leaky pass defense (328 passing yards allowed per game), this is a good setup for Barber.

If you're searching for cheaper options in the TCU passing game, Quentin Johnston ($4,400) is explosive but his target volume is low with just five through two games. Still, all five of those targets have been caught for a total of 120 yards and a score. 

I'll also keep recommending JD Spielman ($3,700) as a punt play until his salary matches his talent. It's been tough for him getting acclimated to the offense but it will happen sooner or later and I'm more confident than I've ever been that Duggan can support multiple receivers' fantasy value. 

Other Suggestions: Dyami Brown ($5,600) and Dazz Newsome ($5,400), North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech

If you're picking up what I'm putting down as far as UNC getting into gear this week is concerned, you have to consider Brown and Newsome both. Brown has been getting targets and has been effective while Newsome has been invisible after a 1,000-yard season in 2019. If both of them play up to their potential they will crush value at those salaries. 

Texas Tech Receivers: 

Whether it's KeSean Carter ($6,400), T.J. Vasher ($4,400) or Erik Ezukanma ($4,900), the discount on Texas Tech receivers this week is too steep. Yes, the dropoff from Alan Bowman to Henry Colombi is significant, but these are still talented receivers and this is still a high-powered system. Iowa State's pass defense (8.8 YPA Allowed) isn't overly imposing, either.