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College Football Picks: Miami vs. North Carolina Best Bets
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Miami vs. North Carolina Betting Odds for Week 7
Spread: Miami +3.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook); North Carolina -3 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Total: Over 56.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Under 57 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Miami +143 (Caesars Sportsbook); North Carolina -162 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
It's going to be super interesting to see how the Miami Hurricanes recover. Last week, "The U" had the W in the bag, literally. Just take a knee. Get into Victory Formation. You got this. Yikes. Head coach Mario Cristobal has a history of not having his players take a knee, for whatever reason, going back to his time at the University of Oregon. It cost him once against Stanford in that stop, and it cost him last Saturday.
You know, by now, what happened, as it has been shown ad nauseam on the highlight shows, Instagram, wherever. Georgia Tech wins, and Miami's unblemished record is ruined. Now, the Hurricanes blow into Chapel Hill as a tropical depression. Will they whip up into a Category 5 frenzy at Kenan Stadium or crash ashore and dissipate, like so many storms do in the great Tar Heel State?
UNC has a current four-game winning streak in this series, which is the longest active run for either side since these teams started playing ACC games on the regular in 2004. Believe it or not, these teams actually played seven games prior to conference contests from 1946 to 1963, too. It's not Harvard-Yale, or Michigan-Ohio State, or even UNC-Virginia, etc. - but these teams are meeting for the 27th time, with North Carolina leading the all-time series 13-11 with two vacated wins in 2008-09.
The Heels snuffed out Syracuse in rather impressive fashion at Kenan last week, 40-7, easily covering a 9.5-point spread. That's three straight covers in a row for Carolina, all as a favorite of seven or more points. The last time it was favored by less than a touchdown, it also took care of business in a 31-17 neutral-site win in Charlotte over South Carolina as a 3-point favorite.
As mentioned, the Canes had that ugly 23-20 loss to Georgia Tech last week. Even if it had won, they weren't coming close to covering as a 19-point favorite. The last and only time Miami was an underdog this season, it rose to the occasion and posted a resounding 48-33 win against visiting Texas A&M at Hard Rock Stadium. Will we get angry Canes, or will the Heels add to their woes? This is an interesting game.
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Miami vs. North Carolina Betting Picks for Week 7
Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke has completed 72.6% of his pass attempts for 1,330 yards, 12 touchdowns and four interceptions through five games this season. He has a handful of receivers who have been making plenty of noise, with Jacolby George (23-337-4), Xavier Restrepo (36-478-2) and Colbie Young (21-298-3) all averaging better than 13.3 yards per reception. Six different Hurricanes have scored through the air, too, so Van Dyke is very good at spreading it around.
When Miami wants to run, RBs Donald Chaney Jr. (51-289-2) and Henry Parrish Jr. (59-379-4) are a tremendous two-headed monster. DCJ had the fumble to give the Yellow Jackets the ball with 33 seconds left, and the rest is history. It will be interesting to see how, mentally, he handles that gaffe, although he should have never been put in that position in the first place.
For the Tar Heels, Heisman hopeful QB Drake Maye is lighting it up, although perhaps not as much as last season. He has completed 72.1% of his passes for 1,629 yards, eight touchdowns and four interceptions while getting sacked 11 times. His numbers are a lot closer to Van Dyke's than, say, USC's Caleb Williams, who is considering the front-runner for the Heisman.
The offense hasn't had to be entirely on the shoulders of Maye this season, as RB Omarion Hampton has been a tremendous downhill runner, going for 461 yards and seven scores while gobbling up 5.2 yards per attempt. Maye has really seemed to miss WR Josh Downs, now with the Indianapolis Colts of the NFL. The leading receiver for UNC, WR Nate McCollum, has 355 yards on 28 grabs but just one score. The second-best receiver, WR J.J. Jones, has 17.7 yards per catch but nary a touchdown.
The Hurricanes have been VERY hard against the run and great overall defensively. In fact, Miami is No. 2 in the nation with just 58.2 rushing yards per game allowed and No. 9 with 268.4 total yards per game. That doesn't bode well for Hampton getting off and getting to his numbers. Miami's offense has been lit, however, going for 39.0 points per game.
On the flip side, UNC is very similar. It goes for exactly 500.0 total yards per game, which is top-10 in the nation while posting 36.6 PPG. But the defense is strong and balanced, keeping teams to just 216.8 passing yards per game and 19.0 PPG. We should see a lot of running in this game, or at least an attempt to run, with some surprisingly decent defense. The lean is to the Under, but ever so slightly.
Miami vs. North Carolina Expert Pick: Under 57 (Caesars Sportsbook)
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Miami vs. North Carolina Predictions for Week 7
In addition to leaning low on the total, it's hard to ignore the mental anguish Miami suffered last time out. I feel as if Cristobal is rather even-keel, and with the exception of likely taking a knee, should it come to that, he won't have a different approach in this game. However, Van Dyke, Chaney, etc. will be playing with a fire. That should serve Miami well against a team that, statistically, it pretty much mirrors.
North Carolina has rolled through the ACC portion of the schedule so far, manhandling Pittsburgh and Syracuse by at least 17 points, and each of the past three wins at home has been by that margin, with three consecutive covers. Kenan is a tough place to play, but this is going to be a one-possession game.
That being said, Miami is 0-1 in such games, frittering away a lead in much-publicized fashion in the final minute. North Carolina has been involved in an OT win against Appalachian State back on Sept. 9 in Kenan, finding a way to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. It was also tested and passed the test in a tight game with rival South Carolina.
The best play is taking UNC as a moderate favorite on the moneyline and forgetting about fiddling around with the points, but I don't hate laying the three, either. Expect to sweat, though, as Miami comes to play.
