This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Michigan vs. Penn State
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It's one of the biggest college football games of the season to date. It is going to solidify the playoff picture in a major way. Two of the top teams in the country are squaring off, with the underdog at home to add intrigue. And yet, it's off-the-field stuff that looms over the Michigan Wolverines heading to Happy Valley to face the Penn State Nittany Lions. I waited and waited until I felt like surely the Big Ten wouldn't drop any discipline on the team. Instead, in the opposite of whatever a Friday news dump is, it was announced that Jim Harbaugh will not be able to coach during games for the rest of the regular season (but still coach during the week).
Legal action is planned from Michigan, naturally, but that's probably more toward getting Harbaugh back for the Ohio State game (and the Maryland game, if possible). From what I can tell, the Wolverines will be without their head coach against Penn State, but what does that mean for this game?
Michigan vs. Penn State Betting Odds for Week 11
Spread: Michigan -4.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: 44.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook), 45.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Michigan -196 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Penn State +170 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
The Nittany Lions are ranked 10th by the playoff committee, and they are at home. Even so, they remain underdogs at home, and by more than a field goal at that. I'm also looking at that over/under total for reasons I shall get into momentarily.
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Michigan vs. Penn State Betting Picks for Week 11
Michigan ain't played nobody. While that particular college football axiom is decidedly Southern in origin, it is the on-the-field argument levied against the team in maize and blue. However, an astute college football consumer knows smashing your opponents, even the subpar opponents, can tell you as much as anything. There's a reason why SP+ has the Wolverines as the top team in the country: fifth offensively and first defensively. Now, the Nittany Lions are no slouches. They rank fifth, although they are closer to 19th-ranked North Carolina than top-ranked Michigan. Their defense ranks fourth, but the offense is 21st.
The Wolverines have scored over 40 points in five straight games. Only two teams have even managed double-digit points against them, and last week, Purdue only got there with the dictionary definition of a garbage-time touchdown (much to the chagrin of some bettors). Truly, Michigan has steamrolled the opposition, but Penn State should provide an actual challenge, and what happens then? The Nittany Lions' lone loss was on the road against Ohio State by a mere eight points (20-12), and Ohio State is atop the playoff rankings.
There's also the sign-stealing scandal, and now punishment that has been added onto all the other stuff that has hit the Michigan program. Jim Harbaugh didn't coach the first few games because of another scandal, so at least the team is practiced in this. For a while, it seemed like the Wolverines were fueled by ax-grinding and overarching pettiness, but they didn't look great against the Boilermakers, which is weird to say about a team that won 41-13 and would have won 41-6 if not for that ridiculous garbage-time score.
That's why I started thinking about the point total. What does this game look like if Penn State pulls off a win or at least keeps it close? To me, such a scenario likely involves a low-scoring game, not a track meet. The 45.5 total available through FanDuel would allow for this game to finish at, say, 28-14 and still hit the under. I feel like Michigan will win, but there are more known unknowns than I am comfortable with on that front, so I will bet on two defenses that rank in the top four in defensive SP+.
Michigan vs. Penn State Best Bet: Under 45.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)
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Michigan vs. Penn State Predictions for Week 11
Well, obviously, I don't think Michigan will score 40 for the sixth game in a row. Being challenged for the first time, and on the road at that, the Wolverines might take a bit to get going. Penn State, though, lacks the offensive firepower to make Michigan sweat too much. Ultimately, I do think the Wolverines win, scandal and ardor aside. However, as much as the men in maize and blue would love a statement victory, I think the statement will only go so far as to show they can beat top-level opposition. I just feel like this is a game where Michigan may struggle to hit 30, and Penn State could even struggle to hit 20, so any pushups-performing mascots likely won't have too hard a day on the sidelines.
