This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Best Bets
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Ole Miss heads to Starkville, Mississippi, to battle Mississippi State with the Golden Egg on the line. These two teams are renewing a rivalry that started in 1927. The Rebels are looking to close out an impressive season and improve their bowl positioning, while the Bulldogs need a win to become bowl-eligible.
Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Betting Odds for Week 13
Spread: Ole Miss -10.0 (ESPN BET), MSU +10.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 54.5 (BetMGM) Under 55.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: -360 Ole Miss (FanDuel Sportsbook); +300 MSU (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Betting Picks for Week 13
As mentioned earlier, Ole Miss has had a good season, but once again, the Rebels came up short in the biggest games. Sure, this is a big game as it's a rivalry game, but though Lane Kiffin might not admit it out loud, he'd much rather get a win over Alabama than Mississippi State. The Rebels' failure against top competition shouldn't be a factor this week, however, as they will not be facing a team that's loaded with talent.
Mississippi State has a chance to go 6-6 this season and clinch a bowl berth, but it's been anything but a successful season. Though the Bulldogs are nearly .500 on the season, they are 1-6 in conference and most of those conference games weren't even close.
The main problem for MSU this season has been the offense. While the defense is top-50 against the run and the pass, the offense ranks 114th in passing yards per game and 77th in rushing yards per game.
Ole Miss is solid in most aspects, with a passing offense ranked 16th, and a rushing offense ranked 45th in the country. The defense isn't as good, ranking 58th against the run and 79th against the pass.
Those are the stats; now, throw them out! I'm kidding, but there is a little bit of truth in that cliché. Ole Miss is going to get everything the Bulldogs have in this game, which means the defense is going to play better, and the offense is going to find some success, but will it be enough to keep this game close?
I think it will...for a half or maybe three quarters, but Ole Miss should eventually find separation. With that said, I'm not sure that the Rebels will get enough breathing room to prevent the backdoor cover. With that in mind, I think the best play here is the under 55.5. The only chance MSU has is to grind this game to a halt by pounding the rock continuously. Ole Miss has a dynamic offense, but the Rebels haven't been all that explosive this season. Ole Miss hasn't scored more than 40 points in any game since late September, and considering this is a rivalry game on the road, I don't expect to see 40 from them in this spot.
Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Expert Pick: Under 55.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Predictions for Week 13
As mentioned above, the game plan for MSU will be to run, run and run again. This is really its only hope, as the Bulldogs have one of the worst passing offenses in the nation. Ole Miss is aware of this as well, so the Rebels will load the box and dare MSU to throw it. The raw emotion and the home crowd will give the Bulldogs the added boost they need to get the ground game going early, and they'll keep this game close for a while. In the end, Ole Miss makes a few more plays and wins by a score or two. I'm expecting a slow start for the Ole Miss offense, and if MSU can control the clock with the run game early, the 1st-half under could be a good play as well.
Ole Miss 28 - Mississippi State 20
