This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Texas vs. Kansas Best Bets
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We have a few games featuring ranked teams squaring off in Week 5. One of those features teams at opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of the top 25, but two programs that are still happy with their spots at this time. Near the top, we have the third-ranked Texas Longhorns. They are hosting the 24th-ranked Kansas Jayhawks. Both have to deal with narratives built on history. Can Texas get out of its own way? Can Kansas be a viable football program? You probably have a question as well: Can you get to the betting picks already?
Texas vs. Kansas Betting Odds for Week 5
Spread: Texas -16.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: 61.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook) or 62.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Texas -800 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Kansas +600 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
I mentioned two totals because a full point difference can mean a lot in terms of taking the over or the under. Obviously, go FanDuel for the former and BetMGM for the latter. I don't know if I feel great about making a total bet for this one, but were I to do so, I'd likely grab the over with that 61.5 number. What really sticks out to me, though, is that spread.
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Texas vs. Kansas Betting Picks for Week 4
I am a proponent of things like SP+ and (to a lesser degree) FPI, and those sorts of ranking systems have adored Texas in recent years. Of course, when the Longhorns would come up short, the "winz" crowd would have a field day, but if you are reading this, you probably don't hate math. Texas is seventh in SP+, while Kansas is 40th, helped by ranking first on special teams, the most volatile of the components.
The Jayhawks under Lance Leipold are a different program because Leipold is an elite coach. Kansas is 4-0 with comfortable wins over Illinois and BYU, bowl-level teams. The Longhorns, of course, beat Alabama. They took a little time to get going against Wyoming but handled a (bad) Baylor team in Waco with aplomb. Texas deals with as much narrative-based assessment as anybody, but we have not necessarily seen Steve Sarkisian coach a team that finishes at the top of the college football ladder, and Quinn Ewers is still proving he has put it all together. Kansas, meanwhile, has a truly dynamic quarterback in Jalon Daniels, and Devin Neal is an impressive back as well.
The SP+-based projection for this game has the Longhorns winning by 20, which I will admit made me rethink this one. Texas is at home, and obviously, it has way more talent than Kansas. That has always been the case, but this year, that talent is executing. The Longhorns have held opposing teams to 2.7 rushing yards per attempt, which is bad for Neal but also for Daniels. It's fun that the Jayhawks are 4-0 and will likely go bowling, but fun stories don't make you any more talented. I've come around to the idea that the Longhorns, as conceivably one of the best teams in college football, will win by a comfortable margin. However, I will disagree with SP+ and take the over on 61.5.
Texas vs. Kansas Best Bet: Texas -16.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Texas vs. Kansas Predictions for Week 5
How does Texas get to the point where they win by 17 or more points? Being at home, for starters. The Jayhawks have only played one game on the road, and they only beat lowly Nevada by a touchdown. Both of these teams have top-20 offenses in SP+, but where Texas is sixth defensively, Kansas is 84th. A school like Kansas can have a nice run when they give a great coach his first Power Five job and snag a better-than-expected recruit at quarterback, but getting enough talent on defense to keep pace with a team that can recruit like Texas (and has an offensive mind like Sarkisian running the show) is much tougher. I think Kansas can score a couple of touchdowns in the first half and make Texas sweat a bit, but by the end, the team at home, ranked third in the nation, pulls away with a comfortable win that doesn't reach rout levels.
