Lenovo United States Grand Prix
Location: Austin, Texas
Course: Circuit of the Americas
Course Length: 5.51km
Laps: 56
United States Grand Prix Preview
Max Verstappen's reign of dominance continued in Qatar and he's officially the Drivers Champion for the third consecutive season. Red Bull wrapped up the Constructors' Championship several races ago, so there is no longer a race at the top for either title. Needless to say, things are going very well on track for Red Bull. However, off track, there's oddly plenty of turmoil brewing. There's been a reported rift growing between Helmut Marko and Christian Hoerner, and rumors that the former could be dismissed from the team. Sergio Perez's slide in the second half of the season and the emergence of Liam Lawson has also created speculation that Perez could lose his seat to Daniel Riccardo, with Lawson taking a deserved seat at Alpha Tauri. Perez could be fighting for his future on the grid across the next several races.
Elsewhere, McLaren has taken its turn as the second-fastest team on the grid and have an excellent driver pairing in Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri. Norris has finished on the podium in three consecutive races, with Piastri following suit in his last two grand prix. With that momentum, it's a near certainty they'll surpass Aston Martin for fourth in the constructor standings.
One team that may not typically come up as a points contender that I'll be interested in watching is Alfa Romeo. There's been optimism regarding the team's installation and understanding of upgrades to its car. There have been results to back that, as Valtteri Bottas and Zhou Guanyu scored double points in Qatar. Their stated goal is to chase down Williams for P7 in the Constructors Standings, and they currently sit at only a seven-point deficit.
Key Stats at Circuit of the Americas
- Races: 10
- Winners from pole: 5
- Winners from top-5 starters: 10
- Winners from top-10 starters: 10
Previous Circuit of the Americas Winners
2022- Max Verstappen
2021 - Max Verstappen
2019 - Valtteri Bottas
2018 - Kimi Raikkonen
2017 - Lewis Hamilton
2016 - Lewis Hamilton
2015 - Lewis Hamilton
2014 - Lewis Hamilton
2013 - Sebastian Vettel
2012 - Lewis Hamilton
F1's footprint in the United States has grown significantly in the last few years with races added in Miami and most recently Las Vegas. However, as the name suggests, the United States Grand Prix is the original race in the country and was first hosted at Circuit of the Americas in 2012. There will be one difference to the 2023 edition, however, as it's a sprint race weekend. That means qualifying for the grand prix is Friday, the sprint shootout and sprint race are held Saturday and finally, the grand prix takes place Sunday.
Pirelli is sending the middle three compound tires for the weekend for a circuit that has a bit of everything. Aside from Turn 1, the first sector is dominated by medium to high-speed sweeping turns. Sector two holds the longest straight of the circuit, but leads into the final sector that is dominated by lower-speed, 90-degree turns.
Track position has historically been extremely important. Nine of the 10 winners have started on the front row, with last year being the only exception, when Verstappen won from third on the grid.
DraftKings Value Picks for the United States Grand Prix
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Max Verstappen - $16,000
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Lando Norris - $9,800
Oscar Piastri - $9,600
Lewis Hamilton - $8,800
George Russell - $8,600
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Pierre Gasly - $6,000
Esteban Ocon - $4,800
DraftKings Tier 4 Values
Valtteri Bottas - $4,400
Daniel Ricciardo - $4,000
Zhou Guanyu - $3,200
DraftKings Constructor Values
McLaren - $9,500
Mercedes – 8,900
Alpine - $3,700
Formula 1 DFS Picks for the United States Grand Prix
Captain – Lando Norris - $14,700
Lewis Hamilton - $8,800
Carlos Sainz Jr. - $7,600
Pierre Gasly - $6,000
Zhou Guanyu - $3,200
Constructor – McLaren
This lineup stands out for the obvious reason that it excludes Max Verstappen and any presence of Red Bull. It's certainly a decent possibility that Verstappen and Perez finish 1-2, but with Perez's downturn in pace, there's a strong case for not paying the extreme premium for Red Bull as the constructor. There's no case for fading Verstappen except price. To roster him and fill out a reasonably competitive roster, the constructor would have to be Alpine (or another cheap team). That's a viable alternative to the roster shown above.
The roster above is a good option because it's well-rounded and gets exposure to the second, third and fourth-fastest teams. If Red Bull slips – unlikely that may be – this lineup should take advantage. The focus is on McLaren because they've had the pace of late and have had consistently good results since a slow start to the year. Mercedes has the third-best pace currently, and their driver lineup rivals that of McLaren. Finally, Sainz has had strong form since summer break, recording two podium finishes (one race win) in three completed grand prix. He did not participate in the Qatar Grand Prix due to a fuel-related issue.
I've regularly cited Alpine as the value team this season. Gasly and Ocon are evenly matched and regularly fight for points. Gasly is the steadier option (think small-field tournaments and cash games), while Ocon is boom-bust but could be a large-field tournament-winning piece.
It could be a bit of recency bias to believe in Alfa Romeo, but there isn't much to lose. If they can sneak into points again this week, Guanyu would be an excellent value.
Formula Betting Picks for the United States Grand Prix (Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Fastest Qualifier – Sainz (+1200)
Podium Finish –Hamilton (+200); Verstappen and Hamilton Podium Finish (+225)
Top-Six Finish – Sainz (-150)
Top-10 Finish – Bottas (+350)
We get qualifying on Friday due to the reconfigured race weekend, which will come after only one practice. In that session, I like betting on Ferrari due to their pace over one lap. At times this season, they've had the fastest car on single-lap pace, but the setup causes tire wear at an accelerated clip, thus hurting their pace over an entire grand prix. Sainz has had the upper hand on the team of late, so he's the longshot bet.
Hamilton has only five podiums, so one surface, those odds don't look long enough. However, his form of late has been strong. He finished third in Singapore and qualified third in Qatar before crashing out of the race on the first turn. The Mercedes has pace and Hamilton has gotten the most out of it recently.
We talked about Sainz's recent form above. In all three races he's finished since the summer break, he's finished inside the top six.
We've also covered Alfa Romeo's upgrades. It's not a high-confidence pick, but taking a small swing on them would bring a significant return.
