This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
What a brutal week. Not only did I go 3-10-1 ATS, 1-4 in the Supercontest and lose my best bet, the Jaguars by a mile, but I was lucky it wasn't worse. My three wins were the Giants miracle last-second backdoor cover, the Titans who covered on a fourth-down play and the Redskins who covered due to a missed field goal aided by a snap-infraction on the previous try that pushed it five yards back. Even the push by the Browns required a furious fourth-quarter comeback.
In fairness, I hated the slate, and most games were coin flips, but I was thinking 5-9, not 3-10-1 with the possibility of 0-14.
I like this week's slate a little better. In particular, I like the Cardinals, Giants and Raiders (arguably the league's three worst teams besides the Bills), and I'm also on the Bills, Dolphins and Jets. I didn't set out to go so ugly, but it's where the lines took me.
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Dolphins +7.5 at Texans
Maybe the Texans defense is actually good, as they finally have full strength Jadeveon Clowney and J.J. Watt on the field at the same time. The Brock Osweiler-led Dolphins are traveling on the short week too and missing half their receiving corps. I set this line at seven, though, and as much as I hate to take the road dog on Thursday night, give me the Dolphins.
Texans 24 - 17