Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills: NFL Odds, Picks and Predictions
For the fifth time in the regular season and ninth time overall since 2020, the Chiefs and Bills will link up to do battle. Highmark Stadium is the setting on this occasion, and both teams come in off impressive Week 8 wins and appear firmly back on track after some struggles at various points earlier in the season.
With the latest installment of the always thrilling Patrick Mahomes-Josh Allen rivalry on tap, we dig into best bets to consider.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Chiefs -129 (BetRivers) / Bills +115 (BetMGM)
Point spread: Chiefs -1.5 (ESPN Bet) / Bills +2 (BetMGM)
Totals: Over 52.5 points (FanDuel) / Under 52.5 points (DraftKings)
The spread fof this game of significant betting interest has had plenty of action, but ultimately, the number has bounced in a tight range. The Bills were up to 2.5-point home underdogs at various points over the last week-plus, but the number has continued to drift back to as low as 1.5 at some sportsbooks.
However, the total has been on a firm upward trajectory, making a significant move after the Bills' offense reestablished itself in a noteworthy way against the Panthers in Week 8. That game that featured a career-best 216-yard performance by James Cook. The number sat at an already robust 50.5 before Week 9 action, and it's been progressively bet up to 52.5 over the course of the past week.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Picks
The Bills are in an interesting psychological spot against the defending AFC champions this decade. Buffalo is 4-0 against Andy Reid, Mahomes and co. in the regular season since 2021, yet 0-3 in the postseason over that span. The losses consist of the unforgettable 42-36 overtime thriller, followed by a pair of three-point defeats.
Both quarterbacks are still in their prime, but time is passing and there's an urgency on both sides for Allen's long-awaited first Super Bowl title and for the Chiefs to get back to the big game and atone for last February's embarrassment against the Eagles.
Buffalo has already shown it can be dominant in stretches this season, and despite its two-game hiccup before the Week 7 bye, there's no reason to doubt they'll be ready to click on all cylinders. Last week's "sparring match" with the Panthers that turned into a laugher, and they have confidence from the four consecutive regular-season wins over KC.
However, the Chiefs will once again prove incredibly difficult to conquer, especially now that Mahomes has reverted back to the gunslinging ways that largely defined his early years. The two-time MVP finally has all of Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown healthy at once, and he's already eclipsed the 2,000-yard mark in eight games while generating a 17:4 TD:INT.
The BIlls' biggest weakness on defense has been against the run by far, but KC will be down its lead back in Isiah Pacheco for this contest due to a knee injury. Nevertheless, capable veterans Kareem Hunt and Elijah Mitchell, along with rookie Brashard Smith, can pose a threat to Buffalo and keep the Chiefs' offense balanced in a game that I believe will feature plenty of points.
Chiefs vs. Bills Best Bets:
- SGP: Bills Alt. Spread +3.5 and Josh Allen 175+ passing yards (-120 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Over 52.5 points (-108 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Brashard Smith Over 17.5 receiving yards (-114 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction
Bills 33, Chiefs 31
Another Chiefs-Bills clash, another wire-to-wire battle. These two offenses can turn it up several notches when necessary, and there's no question both coaches know aggression and keeping the foot on the gas is a must against this particular opponent. As such, I expect another high-scoring battle that will likely come down to a play or two, and this could ultimately be a toss-up. I'm giving the slight edge to the home team.
