This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Last week wasn't bad - 9-6 overall, I won my best bet (Broncos) and went 4-1 in the Supercontest, but it still felt frustrating. Maybe that's because I went 1-2 on Thanksgiving - the Falcons and Redskins losses were painful - and was 9-4 heading into Sunday night. Essentially four of the five standalone games went against me, so most of my time was spent losing even if the overall mark was good.
This week, it seemed like Vegas went crazy overcompensating for big favorites cruising to easy covers. Of course, it's possible that in the new pinball NFL this is now the norm, but I could not make my lines high enough to keep up in some instances. Accordingly I'm on some ugly dogs.
Teams I like best this week are the Cowboys, Falcons, Browns and Broncos. As usual, I'll post my Supercontest picks in the comments.
Saints -7.5 at Cowboys
This is an insane line, but I suppose the books are getting torched by the Saints every week, so they took a drastic measure. I made this line 3.5 as the Cowboys are tough at home, and they'll keep the ball out of Drew Brees' hands. Take the points.
Saints 27 - 23
Colts -4 at Jaguars
I made this line exactly four, so I could go either way. Coin flip, but give me the Jaguars.
Colts 20 - 17
Panthers -3.5 at Buccaneers
I made this line 2.5, so