This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I went 7-6 last week, but it was a bad 7-6 as I was dead wrong on my best bet, the Eagles, and went 2-3 in the Supercontest. What's worse, I was 6-2 through the early wave and brimming with confidence before getting wiped out in the afternoon and night games. It's par for the course, though. NFL handicapping is a wild beast, and every time you think you've tamed it, it throws you off its back.
This week I have a lot of big favorites, i.e., what used to be the sucker side, but I'm sticking to the lines I made. The Colts and Chargers feel especially that way to me, and I have misgivings about the Giants, Bills, Packers and Seahawks on the dog side. Teams I like best are the Falcons, Ravens and Broncos.
Remember, the key to a happy holiday is to go 2-1 ATS on Thanksgiving.
Bears -3 at Lions
Bears 23 - 16
Redskins +7.5 at Cowboys
The Redskins lost Alex Smith last week, but Colt McCoy is an experienced veteran who probably won't wreck things, and it's not as though Smith was lighting the league on fire. The Redskins defense is stout, and I expect the Cowboys to slow it down and slug it out. Take