This article is part of our NFL Draft series.
We made it. The draft is finally here and we have three days of madness ahead of us. This mock is my best guess as to how the first round will unfold based on my evaluation along with the most recent information and rumors from the draft community. We'll be rolling out recap articles each day of the draft with a focus on the fantasy relevant rookies, so stay tuned for those as well.
Round 1, Pick 1: Arizona Cardinals
The Pick: Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
I'm less sure about where Josh Rosen gets shipped off to (and for what price) than I was in Mock 1.0, but I still feel that Murray is the pick here and that Rosen will be sent packing. The Murray-Kingsbury marriage is happening, for better or for worse.
Round 1, Pick 2: San Francisco 49ers
The Pick: Nick Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State
The Niners add Bosa opposite Dee Ford, turning an anemic pass rush into a scary one in the course of one offseason.
Round 1, Pick 3: New York Jets
The Pick: Quinnen Williams, Interior Defensive Line, Alabama
Round 1, Pick 4: Oakland Raiders
The Pick: Josh Allen, EDGE, Kentucky
The Raiders had 13.0 sacks last year. As a team. In 16 games. Josh Allen had 17.0 in 13 games. Seems like a good idea to get better at sacking the quarterback.
Round 1, Pick 5: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Pick: Devin White, Inside Linebacker, LSU
I liked Mario's idea of the Bucs addressing edge here. The way I have the first four picks going, though, it'd be a reach to go after the available edge rushers here. If the Bucs stick at five, going after Devin White should be the play.
Round 1, Pick 6: New York Giants
The Pick: Jonah Williams, Offensive Line, Alabama
The Giants' offensive line is far from a finished product even with Nate Solder anchoring the left side. Williams was a three-year starter at Alabama and despite the quibbles about arm length – his arms are longer than Andre Dillard's but that doesn't jive with the #narrative so it gets swept under the rug – he can absolutely play tackle. He's a safe pick, too, and the Giants can't afford to throw this pick in the trash by going with Daniel Jones.
Round 1, Pick 7: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Pick: Jawaan Taylor, Offensive Tackle, Florida
The way the winds are blowing, Dwayne Haskins doesn't look like the pick here. I have some questions about Taylor – I had him as the 28th pick and third offensive tackle in my last mock – but it does seem that the Jaguars have an interest in the Florida product and Taylor has the tools that can be developed into a reliable offensive tackle in the future.
Round 1, Pick 8: Washington Redskins via trade
Washington sends picks 1.15 and 2.14 (46 overall) in 2019 to Detroit for pick 1.8
The Pick: Dwayne Haskins, Quarterback, Ohio State
There are rumblings from various outlets identifying Washington as a major player to trade up into the top 10, and there are also rumblings that quarterback is the target. Haskins would make all the sense in the world if those conditions are true, and moving up to the eighth pick is doable for Washington without mortgaging too much draft capital.
Round 1, Pick 9: Buffalo Bills
The Pick: Ed Oliver, Interior Defensive Line, Houston
The talent is worthy of a top-five selection and if the board falls this way, Oliver is the clear best player available. The Bills have needs at several different spots and the defensive interior is definitely among them. Oliver is the easy call if he's there at nine.
Round 1, Pick 10: Denver Broncos
The Pick: Devin Bush, Linebacker, Michigan
Inside linebacker catches a rep of being a non-premium position that continues to lose value as the league skews more heavily to the pass. But are Chicago and Dallas regretting taking Roquan Smith and Leighton Vander Esch in the first last year? No. An inside linebacker with speed to help in coverage and instincts to pick his spots as a blitzer is immensely valuable, and Bush brings those qualities to the table in a big way. Denver can't leave the draft with Josey Jewell and Todd Davis as its inside linebacker pairing.
Round 1, Pick 11: Cincinnati Bengals
The Pick: Drew Lock, Quarterback, Missouri
Finding Andy Dalton's replacement is among Cincinnati's most pressing needs, if not the most pressing need. OverTheCap.com notes that cutting Dalton before June 1 would save the team nearly $34 million over the next two years.
The board falling this way would put the Bengals in a weird limbo. Their likely top two quarterbacks would be off the board, as would the top two inside linebackers. Trading out of this spot would make sense either way, but if they stick at 11, quarterback makes sense and Lock fits that bill.
Round 1, Pick 12: Green Bay Packers
The Pick: T.J. Hockenson, Tight End, Iowa
The Packers are in a weird spot at 12. The top three quarterbacks are off the board in this scenario, so there may not be a swath of teams looking to trade up to that spot. 12 is also weird because the Packers' other needs (receiver, safety) don't have obvious candidates who would make a ton of sense here, especially a safety.
Going with tight end here would be interesting in its own right, too. Tight ends usually take time to develop and the Packers are in win-now mode, so going Hockenson here would be a hedge that he wouldn't have the same learning curve that even good tight end prospects tend to have. It's possible; Hockenson has been routinely projected in the top-10 in other mocks and has that level of talent.
Round 1, Pick 13: Carolina Panthers via trade (give Miami pick 1.16 and pick 3.14 (78 overall) for pick 1.13)
The Pick: Andre Dillard, Offensive Tackle, Washington State
The Panthers need an offensive tackle and two of the top ones are off the board. With the division rival Falcons also on the market for one, the Panthers will likely need to move up to make sure they get the one they want, and that's Dillard. The Washington State product is still developing as a run blocker but is considered the best pure pass protector in this class.
Round 1, Pick 14: Atlanta Falcons
The Pick: Christian Wilkins, Interior Defensive Line, Clemson
Adding Wilkins to a front that already has Grady Jarrett and Vic Beasley might lead some Falcons fans to believe the front office has a Dabo Swinney shrine. Maybe they do. Wilkins at 14 would be great regardless.
Round 1, Pick 15: Houston Texans via trade
Houston sends pick 1.23, 2.22 (54 overall) to Detroit for pick 1.15
The Pick: Garrett Bradbury, Interior Offensive Line, North Carolina State
Houston needs offensive line help perhaps as badly as anyone else as the draft approaches. In this situation, the Texans would be out of luck on snagging an upper tier tackle, but Bradbury would be an excellent consolation prize as a Day 1 starter at guard. Rashan Gary out of Michigan would also be interesting here as a versatile bookend opposite J.J. Watt.
And, to be serious, with Detroit's roster needs versus what's available, I could see it trading down more than once in the first round.
Round 1, Pick 16: Miami Dolphins
The Pick: Brian Burns, EDGE, Florida State
The frame needs some bulk but Burns has the speed, athleticism, and instinct to rush the passer. The Dolphins desperately need some edge help after some roster attrition this offseason headlined by Cam Wake's departure.
Round 1, Pick 17: New York Giants
The Pick: Rashan Gary, Defensive Line, Michigan
A fall beyond pick 17 is in the realm of possibility with Gary's various red flags as a prospect. He lacks collegiate production to stand on, and he lacks a true position. The recent news of a shoulder issue adds another layer.
Still, Gary is a talented player who is scheme versatile and can be a quality addition to a front that underwent some major changes this offseason. Cornerback would also make some sense for the Giants here.
Round 1, Pick 18: Minnesota Vikings
The Pick: Chris Lindstrom, Interior Offensive Line, Boston College
The Vikings are definitely not mad that Bradbury is off the board and wanted Lindstrom all along anyway.
Round 1, Pick 19: Tennessee Titans
The Pick: Marquise Brown, Wide Receiver, Oklahoma
I'm stealing this from Mario because I like it so much. The Titans need a field stretcher and this is also a hedge that Mississippi's D.K. Metcalf slides into the 20s and isn't the first receiver off the board.
Round 1, Pick 20: Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pick: Noah Fant, Tight End, Iowa
I'm sticking with my original pick for the Steelers from Mock 1.0 as I still believe they need a tight end and I'm doubling down on Fant falling to at least pick 20. The Steelers could also go after Temple's Rock Ya-Sin or Georgia's Deandre Baker here.
Round 1, Pick 21: Seattle Seahawks
The Pick: Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State
The Seahawks really need to find Frank Clark's replacement. Sweat is a good place to start, and getting him at 21 would be a major windfall.
Round 1, Pick 22: Baltimore Ravens
The Pick: Erik McCoy, Interior Offensive Line, Texas A&M
The Ravens don't have a second-round pick as I'm writing this, and the team's history suggests a trade back is a possibility even with Eric DeCosta now running the show. If the Ravens do stay put here, addressing the interior of the offensive line makes plenty of sens, even if they value a different prospect higher than McCoy. The 303-pound McCoy started all 39 games during his time at A&M, mostly playing center but also logging some time at guard and could be a Day 1 starter in Baltimore's run-heavy offense.
Round 1, Pick 23: Detroit Lions
The Pick: Byron Murphy, Cornerback, Washington
The Lions are finally ready to make a pick here and will get a Day 1 starter at corner opposite Darius Slay.
Round 1, Pick 24: Oakland Raiders
The Pick: Rock Ya-Sin, Cornerback, Temple
Cornerback run! The Raiders need secondary help, and as awesome as it would be to have a guy named Greedy, it's difficult to imagine Jon Gruden taking a corner who doesn't tackle. Ya-Sin doesn't have that problem.
Round 1, Pick 25: Philadelphia Eagles
The Pick: Nasir Adderley, Free Safety, Delaware
The absence of testing numbers might hurt Adderley's chances at being the first safety off the board. However, the Eagles need to address the secondary and could use someone with Adderley's ball-hawking (11 career interceptions) play style.
Round 1, Pick 26: Denver Broncos via trade
Broncos trade cornerback Chris Harris and pick 2.9 (41st overall) to Indianapolis in exchange for pick 1.26 and pick 59 (2.27)
The Pick: Daniel Jones, Quarterback, Duke
It's a deal that works for both sides in theory. The Broncos still end up with a quarterback to develop while also nipping the impending Chris Harris drama in the bud. As for Indianapolis, it gets to move well up into the second round and get a player who addresses its defensive line need.
Round 1, Pick 27: Oakland Raiders
The Pick: Joshua Jacobs, Running Back, Alabama
I wanted to make it through these mocks without having a running back in the first round – I'm low on this class – but Jacobs to Oakland makes too much sense at 27. The club would have already addressed two bigger needs with the first two picks and Marshawn Lynch's retirement makes running back a position of need.
Round 1, Pick 28: Los Angeles Chargers
The Pick: Dexter Lawrence, Interior Defensive Line, Clemson
Jerry Tillery is the better player in my opinion but Lawrence is a better fit for what the Chargers do up front. Lawrence is massive at 6-foot-4 and 342 pounds with an ability to eat space and stop the run. He doesn't generate a ton of pressure from the interior but that's not what the Chargers need anyway with Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram wreaking havoc off the edge. Lawrence would be a safe pick here even if his ceiling isn't as high as many anticipated after his incredible freshman season at Clemson.
Round 1, Pick 29: Seattle Seahawks
The Pick: Greedy Williams, Cornerback, LSU
Williams would add another rangy and speedy corner to Seattle's defensive backfield and at 29, he'd be a steal, too.
Round 1, Pick 30: Green Bay Packers
The Pick: Jerry Tillery, Defensive Line, Notre Dame
A freak athlete with some length and versatility, Tillery would be a strong addition next to Kenny Clark on the Packers' defensive line. He underwent surgery to repair the labrum in his right shoulder in March, which could lead to a slide into the second round, but the timeline has him being ready for training camp and his talent is first-round worthy.
Round 1, Pick 31: Buffalo Bills via trade
Bills send picks 2.8 (40th overall) and 3.10 (74) to the Rams for pick 1.31 and 3.30 (94)
The Pick: D.K. Metcalf, Wide Receiver, Mississippi
The Bills have the ammo to move back up into the first round without sacrificing what they can do in the mid-to-late rounds. And, as Schefter notes above, the Rams are looking to move out of the first.
As for the Metcalf pick, it'd go a long way towards giving Josh Allen a true WR1 type who can pose a vertical and a red zone threat. The Bills added to their receiving corps already this offseason but no one on the roster offers the kind of upside that Metcalf brings to the table.
Round 1, Pick 32: San Francisco 49ers via trade
49ers send picks 2.4 (36 overall) and 4.2 (104 overall) to Patriots for pick 1.32
The Pick: A.J. Brown, Wide Receiver, Mississippi
The Patriots could be willing to shop this pick and there could be some teams looking to trade back into the end of the first round, per Adam Schefter. I tend to believe what he says, personally.
If the 49ers can't work a trade with their division rival, making a deal with the Patriots would make sense. The receiver market could be slow-developing in this draft, so the 49ers would have a chance to nab one of the top pass-catching prospects at the end of the first round.