Using Numbers to Predict WR Breakouts
They say that success equals opportunity plus preparation, but for NFL players, that simple equation needs to be refined. Namely, we need to add in "athleticism" as another variable: Success = Opportunity + Preparation + AthleticismThat looks better. The reason athleticism - which I'm using broadly here to encapsulate all physical measurables - is so important as a predictor is because we see the same types of players succeed again and again.As I've showed in the past few weeks, you want to search for explosive running backs, as measured by the 40-yard dash and broad jump, who were drafted highly. For tight ends, the draft round and vertical jump - a measurable that doesn't matter at all for running backs - are the best tools for forecasting success at the position.Another reason measurables are important is they're often overlooked or misunderstood by fantasy owners. Prior to each season, we all have a pretty good idea of each player's projected workload. Opportunities are extremely important, but you aren't likely to obtain much of an advantage by out-projecting owners in that area.Preparation is important, obviously, but I think it's a little bit overblown as a factor in predicting future success. For one, preparation should already be reflected in past statistics. If preparation really matters, it should show up on the field. And if it doesn't, well, who cares about it then? Second, we're dealing with professional athletes here. You might haveUsing Numbers to Predict WR Breakouts
They say that success equals opportunity plus preparation, but for NFL players, that simple equation needs to be refined. Namely, we need to add in "athleticism" as another variable: Success = Opportunity + Preparation + AthleticismThat looks better. The reason athleticism - which I'm using broadly here to encapsulate all physical measurables - is so important as a predictor is because we see the same types of players succeed again and again.As I've showed in the past few weeks, you want to search for explosive running backs, as measured by the 40-yard dash and broad jump, who were drafted highly. For tight ends, the draft round and vertical jump - a measurable that doesn't matter at all for running backs - are the best tools for forecasting success at the position.Another reason measurables are important is they're often overlooked or misunderstood by fantasy owners. Prior to each season, we all have a pretty good idea of each player's projected workload. Opportunities are extremely important, but you aren't likely to obtain much of an advantage by out-projecting owners in that area.Preparation is important, obviously, but I think it's a little bit overblown as a factor in predicting future success. For one, preparation should already be reflected in past statistics. If preparation really matters, it should show up on the field. And if it doesn't, well, who cares about it then? Second, we're dealing with professional athletes here. You might have the occasional lazy prospect, but for the most part, these guys are where they are because they've prepared for it.Meanwhile, I rarely see fantasy owners looking up a potential draft pick's broad jump. But perhaps we should be doing that, especially with younger players.The most obvious rebuttal is that NFL teams are relatively efficient at drafting, so the only thing we really need to study when projecting young players is their draft round. Let the scouts do the work.I don't really think NFL organizations are all that efficient at what they do, though. If they were, we wouldn't see players like Tavon Austin - who will continually be overvalued in standard fantasy leagues - or Robert Woods drafted ahead of guys like Keenan Allen. We wouldn't see Kendall Wright drafted higher than Alshon Jeffery. We certainly wouldn't see Joseph Randle ahead of both Andre Ellington and Zac Stacy (I made these claims prior to the respective players' careers, so it's not a 20/20 hindsight situation). Draft round is important because it helps us predict opportunities, which are of course important. They're even more important for wide receivers than I previously thought.
Wide Receiver Measurables
I charted the Combine measurables for every wide receiver drafted over the past decade (excluding rookies from this year), comparing them to the players' approximate value (a metric that combines various stats like catches, yards, touchdowns, etc.) Here's what I found:
That's in opposition to the short shuttle, which is perhaps the most overrated measurable out there. The short shuttle isn't predictive for any position, but especially not for wide receivers; you can see the correlation between the short shuttle and wide receiver stats is positive, meaning wide receivers who have run slower in the short shuttle have actually been better in the NFL!The most surprising data is that the correlation between height/weight and NFL success is relatively weak. That's really shocking to me since I've found the best wide receivers are often big, strong players who can excel in the red zone in a consistent manner.I think the numbers might be a little skewed by the fact that there are so many non-producing players in the data set. A lot of wide receivers get drafted, but few end up contributing meaningful numbers. That might have diluted the results just a bit. Another possible explanation is NFL teams aren't really valuing height and weight all that much, as we've seen with the recent early selections of players like Austin, Wright and Randall Cobb. Those players are obviously given chances to succeed due to their draft slots, so their numbers are perhaps inflated from opportunities alone.The reasons I think both height and weight still matter quite a bit is the game's elite wide receivers all have size in common. Take a look at the top-20 wide receivers in approximate value over the past decade.
Jonathan Bales is the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. He also runs the "Running the Numbers" blog at DallasCowboys.com and writes for the New York Times.
