Las Vegas Raiders vs. Washington Commanders: NFL Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions
This interconference clash is intriguing from a couple of different angles, the most prominent being the now-confirmed unavailability of Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels. Additionally, we have a Vegas squad that played on Monday night and had to travel cross-country on a short week.
These are also two teams that aren't familiar with each other. We break down odds and best bets for a game that could have a fairly wide range of outcomes.
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Las Vegas Raiders vs. Washington Commanders Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Commanders -136 (FanDuel)/ Raiders +140 (BetMGM)
Point spread: Raiders +3 (BetMGM)/ Commanders -2.5 (FanDuel)
Totals: Over 43.5 points (DraftKings)/ Under 44.0 points (BetMGM)
With Daniels confirmed out after missing another practice Friday, this spread has unsurprisingly been the subject of some shrinking, and more movement could come in the next few hours leading up to kickoff. Before Week 2, the number sat at a robust -6.5 for Washington, but that projected advantage is all the way down to as little as -2.5 as of midday Friday in the immediate aftermath of Daniels being officially ruled out.
Fittingly, the total has also taken a dive, and as with the spread, the number could shrink even further before kickoff. It sat at 47.5 before Week 2 but that number has been whittled down a full four points as of midday Friday. Marcus Mariota did prove to be a competent fill-in on a couple of occasions last season, but the fact Las Vegas could also be somewhat sluggish due to the timing/geography of their Week 2 and Week 3 games.
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Las Vegas Raiders vs. Washington Commanders Betting Picks
The Daniels news is naturally a pivotal component of prognosticating this game, but the Commanders are very well prepared for his absence.
To begin with, Mariota is a tailor-made backup for a quarterback like Daniels. He brings a very similar skill set as a one-time second overall pick in his own right. That means Washington can still run a very similar offensive scheme, both in practice and in a game setting. And speaking of practice, head coach Dan Quinn and his staff have had no choice but to prepare for a Daniels absence all week, as Mariota took all first-team reps.
Mariota is already a proven commodity in the offense, having also been on the roster last season and doing very well in his few opportunities. The veteran completed an elite 80.5 percent of his passes for 366 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions while adding 90 rushing yards and another score on 16 carries in the two games where he saw extended action.
Mariota's passing and mobility are both likely to come into play significantly in this matchup, as the Raiders have been excellent against the run through the first two weeks of the season. Las Vegas is surrendering only 70.5 rushing yards per contest and has conceded a tiny 3.3 yards per carry to RBs specifically. The potential one-dimensional style the Commanders may be forced into is something a veteran like Mariota should be able to mostly navigate. It could also serve to help keep scoring down by leading to more short-circuited drives.
On the Vegas end of the equation, Geno Smith seems to have already developed strong chemistry with Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers, his two top targets by far. However, the points haven't exactly been there, as the Raiders have just 29 points through two games and Smith threw three interceptions against the Chargers on Monday night while averaging just 4.2 yards per attempt.
The Commanders' defense isn't necessarily of the same caliber as Los Angeles' unit and has given up some chunk plays through the air. However, Washington is at home and faces an opponent that could certainly be challenged by the multi-time-zone trip on a short week, while the Commanders benefit from a 10-day stretch between games. As such, I'm teasing the total up by about a field goal to settle on an Under bet I'm comfortable with, and I'm going with a Washington outright win as a secondary bet to consider.
Raiders vs. Commanders Best Bets:
- Under Alt. Total 46.5 points (-156 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Commanders moneyline (-136 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Raiders vs. Commanders Prediction
Commanders 23, Raiders 20
Pete Carroll always got his Seahawks teams to play well following losses, so I do expect a competitive game. Nevertheless, I look for the Commanders to eventually manage to close out a relatively low-scoring affair with some fourth-quarter defense and for the Raiders to come up just short while managing a significant rest disadvantage.
