Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Seattle Seahawks for NFL Week 5
A Buccaneers team coming off its first loss of the season and now down its two most important skill-position players makes a cross-country trip to face off with a Seahawks team with a rest advantage. It tees up quite the uphill battle for Todd Bowles' squad.
With an intriguing set of circumstances at play, we break down odds and best bets for the NFC late-window battle.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Seattle Seahawks Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Buccaneers +165 (Fanatics) / Seahawks -180 (DraftKings)
Point spread: Buccaneers +4 (BetRivers) / Seahawks -3.5 (+100 DraftKings)
Totals: Over 44 points (-115 Fanatics) / Under 44.5 points (-105 FanDuel)
The Seahawks' projected advantage has only grown over the course of the last week-plus, certainly understandable given both Week 4 outcomes and the key injuries to Tampa Bay. The number sat at -1.5 before Week 4 kicked off on Thursday, Sept. 25 with a close Seahawks win over the Cardinals, but it's subsequently bounced between -3 and -4 throughout the week as the absences of Mike Evans and Bucky Irving became official.
In contrast, the total has remained much steadier, fluctuating between a tight range of 44 and 45 points. The fact the Bucs' two biggest playmakers are out naturally plays a role in the modest offensive expectations, as does the performance of the Seahawks' defense over the first four games.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Seattle Seahawks Betting Picks
The advantages for the Seahawks have piled up over the last few days, even though the point spread may not fully reflect it. Seattle was already set to enjoy a significant rest advantage in this spot, considering they last played on a Thursday night in Week 4 and while hosting a team flying clear across the country.
However, once Evans and Irving were both confirmed out, the Seahawks, which already boast an impressive defense that's gotten healthier thanks to the 10-day break between games, were in even better position. Additionally, Tampa Bay will also be without three members of its secondary, a nugget that hasn't gotten much press. Starting cornerback Jamel Dean (hip) and his talented rookie backup Benjamin Morrison (hamstring) have been ruled out, as has Christian Izien (quadriceps), a key member of the safety rotation.
The thin secondary is a bad recipe for the Bucs against a quarterback in Sam Darnold that is displaying major aggression through the air this season. Darnold averages a career-high 9.1 yards per attempt and is second in the NFL in completed air yards per attempt (7.9), and he could have multiple opportunities to connect downfield with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who's laying claim to a massive 50.4 percent of Seattle's air yards.
Baker Mayfield's cupboard won't be bare by any stretch, considering Chris Godwin, who made his season debut last week and immediately drew 10 targets, is available to help make up for Evans' absence. Plus Rachaad White, who has plenty of starting experience, will step in for Irving. Nevertheless, a Seattle defense that's already collected 12 sacks and seven picks in four games is a daunting challenge, and the fact two Buccaneers offensive linemen are on injured reserve certainly doesn't help.
Given the circumstances cited, a Seahawks win of at least four points and a wager on a solid passing day for Darnold are two bets that make sense to focus in on.
Buccaneers vs. Seahawks Best Bets:
- Seahawks -3.5 (-110 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Sam Darnold 225+ passing yards (-130 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Buccaneers vs. Seahawks Prediction
Seahawks 26, Buccaneers 18
As already detailed, Seattle has numerous advantages in this spot, beginning with the Lumen Field setting for this contest. Mayfield always brings the fight regardless of circumstances, but this sets up as one of those scenarios where heart eventually will succumb to a talent/rest disparity. Tampa Bay will keep things competitive, but I see the hosts managing a victory of more than a touchdown.
