Most managers know the value of players getting on hot streaks in fantasy football. When this happens, it can lead to multiple victories. That makes it a wave that you want to ride for as long as possible.
The problem is that wave eventually crashes. When it happens, the player who was crushing it in the fantasy football rankings and delivering wins will often start turning victories into losses. This makes it imperative to spot unsustainable hot streaks and jump off that wave before the crash.
The Trap of the Hot Streak in Fantasy Football
The trap of the hot streak in fantasy football is that it goes against the standard fantasy football strategy of playing the percentages. The superb short-term performance makes managers very wary of benching these red-hot players even though they know that these scoring trends are all but certain to end sooner rather than later.
The psychological reason for this hesitation is recency bias. Our brains are trained to think that whatever is occurring now will continue to occur in perpetuity. Another way to say it is that managers fall for hype chasing even though their history with fantasy sleepers should make them know better.
Key Warning Signs of Unsustainable Production
So, how do you spot unsustainable hot streaks in fantasy football? Here are some warning signs that strongly suggest a player is on such a path.
The first thing to do is peruse the fantasy football news of that week to see if the player in question has low snaps counts and limited usage. If a player is in that category, it likely means that big plays are masking a limited workload. A related area here is if a player scores touchdowns at a non-sustainable pace.
Another is to review NFL depth charts to see if the player in question has been facing an injured team. That is especially prevalent later in a season and can lead to a one-week spike in fantasy numbers that won't carry over into the next.
Statistical Red Flags to Watch
There are other statistical methods that you should watch out for as well. These include an unsustainable yards per touch or catch rate. A good rule of thumb in these areas is to look at the season ending averages in these metrics and see if a player is posting numbers that are much higher. If that's the case, you can all but assure a regression is on the way that will lower that player in your custom fantasy football rankings.
You also don't want to leave out advanced metrics such as air yards, red zone usage and target share. These metrics are very useful rules of thumb that affect fantasy football ADP during draft season. Looking for outliers here can make them equally valuable during the fantasy season.
Separating Real Breakouts from Mirages
Marvin Harrison Jr. offered a useful example of using advanced metrics to separate real breakouts from mirages during his rookie 2024 campaign. Harrison was considered an upside play on every preseason fantasy football cheat sheet and seemed to live up to it by posting 15.5+ PPR points in Weeks 2-4.
Savvy managers knew this wasn't likely to continue in a Kyler Murray-led offense. Murray had some of the worst vertical pass numbers in 2022 and 2023, and Harrison, as talented as he is, wasn't going to be able to turn that around all by himself. That's exactly what happened, and it led to Harrison moving from a weekly must start to being one of the most inconsistent starting wide receivers in fantasy football.
Now contrast that to Chargers wide receiver Ladd McConkey. He was in an offense directed by the highly consistent Justin Herbert. It took some time for them to get into sync last year, but once that sync occurred, McConkey posted seven straight games with 14.3 or more PPR points. That made him one of only three wide receivers to do this in 2024 and shows why he was a real breakout and not a mirage.
Team and Schedule Factors
Other factors to watch out for in terms of hot streak players are things such as offensive scheme changes and adjustments to game scripts. For instance, think back to when Jameis Winston took over as Cleveland's starting quarterback in Week 13 of the 2024 season. His risk-taking big play tendencies led to Winston posting 497 passing yards and four passing touchdowns against Denver.
Wise managers saw past those big numbers and instead looked at Winston's three interceptions. That was all par for the course for Winston and portended a benching that occurred after he threw eight picks in his three starts.
You'll also want to keep an eye out for upcoming defensive matchups. You can do this with the schedule analysis available via your RotoWire subscription. A string of plus matchups can lead to an unexpected hot streak, while a group of minus matchups can lead to benching someone who has been playing well of late.
Building Stability & Making Smart Roster Decisions
Hot streaks in fantasy football can be very useful in roster building both before and during a season. The best before-season strategy is to aim for undervalued players with very favorable schedules. You can check out of the necessary information in your fantasy football draft kit.
You can also use the schedule strength strategy during the season to make valuable sell-high or buy-low trades. This schedule review can also lead to improved waiver and free agent selections. Do well here and hot streaks, rather than a source of confusion, can be another valuable tool in your overall strategy.
