THURSDAY NIGHT
San Francisco (+6.5) at L.A. Rams, o/u 47.0
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT
It's awfully sporting of the 49ers to send their junior varsity offense out for this one. No Brock Purdy would be one thing — Mac Jones looked fine in his two earlier starts this year — but San Francisco will also be without its top three wideouts, its elite tight end and its starting left guard. Oh, and its top pass rusher too, just to balance things out. The Niners do still have Christian McCaffrey, of course, who I guess is now the iron man on this roster, and all he's done this year is rack up the third-most scrimmage yards in the league while being almost unstoppable as a pass-catcher. His 3.3 yards per carry is well below his norm, but again, it's not like defenses have had to worry too much about getting beat deep by guys like Kendrick Bourne and Jake Tonges. It's kind of amazing that Kyle Shanahan has this team at 3-1 and somehow fifth in total yards, but the cracks are beginning to show. The Niners have lost the turnover battle in consecutive games, giving the ball away five times in total without the defense producing a takeaway, and it cost them last week against the Jags.
The Rams are also 3-1 in the ultra-competitive NFC West, and their only loss was to the defending Super Bowl champs, who needed a blocked field goal at the buzzer to do it. Matthew Stafford's 8.2 YPA is his best mark since 2019, Puka Nacua leads the NFL in catches and receiving yards, and while Kyren Williams isn't at his usual TD-a-game pace, he's still been productive. DC Chris Shula's defense has also been very stout. Philly's the only team to score more than 20 points against them so far, and the Rams are in the top five in takeaways and sacks, which is always a nice combination. If both teams were at close to full strength, this might be a very hard call, but, well, they aren't.
Key Info
SF injury report: QB Brock Purdy (out, toe), WR Jauan Jennings (out, ankle), WR Ricky Pearsall (out, knee), WR Brandon Aiyuk (PUP, knee), TE George Kittle (IR, hamstring), LG Ben Bartch (IR, ankle), EDGE Nick Bosa (IR, knee), S Malik Mustapha (PUP, knee)
LAR injury report: TE Tyler Higbee (doubtful, hip), RT Rob Havenstein (doubtful, ankle), CB Ahkello Witherspoon (IR, collarbone)
Slight lean: WR Demarcus Robinson (LAR 27th in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight lean: TE Davis Allen (SF t-25th in receptions allowed, t-28th in TDs allowed to TEs)
Slight fade: RB Christian McCaffrey (LAR second in passing DVOA vs. RB, second in receiving yards allowed to RBs)
Slight fade: RB Kyren Williams (SF 11th in rushing DVOA, fourth in passing DVOA vs. RB)
NFL weather report: indoors
Head-to-head record, last five years including playoffs: 7-4 SF, average score 23-18 SF, average margin of victory eight points. LAR have won the last three meetings by an average score of 20-17, and their only other victory during the period was a... 20-17 win in the NFC Championship Game in 2021
The Scoop: McCaffrey manages 70 combined yards. Jones throws for 210 yards and a touchdown to Tonges, but he also tosses a pick-six to Quentin Lake. Williams picks up 80 yards and a TD. Stafford throws for 220 yards and a score to Nacua. Rams 27-13
Last week's record: 8-7-1, 4-12 ATS, 6-9-1 o/u
2025 record: 43-20-1 (.683), 32-30-2 ATS (.516), 26-37-1 o/u (.413)
