NFL Picks: NFL Week 4 Player Props To Target

NFL Picks: NFL Week 4 Player Props To Target

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

NFL Picks: NFL Week 4 Player Props To Target

RotoWire.com's Walter Hand looks at the best sports betting sites across the country to identify his NFL bets and NFL player props to target this week

Last week: 4-13, -10.46 units

Season: 5-19, -16.12 units

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A.J. Brown over 70.5 receiving yards, -115 (DraftKings)

Philadelphia's big offseason acquisition has been the focal point of their passing offense thus far, receiving 13, 8, and 10 targets over the Eagles first three games. Brown is a just a couple of yards away from having covered this number in all three of those games, finishing with 155, 69, and 85 yards in those three spots. Now at home facing Jacksonville's 21st-ranked passing defense (and with QB Jalen Hurts currently ranked fourth in passing yards), it seems likely we'll see more of the same. Worth noting, the remnants of Hurricane Ian are traveling up the East Coast and dumping a lot of rain this weekend, but the current forecast on NFLWeather.com is calling for light rain. Just something to be aware of across this weekend's card of games.

Nyheim Hines over 3.5 receptions, +115 (DraftKings)

I've been on Nyheim Hines receiving props each of the first three weeks, and have gone 3-for-3. This reception number/price is actually identical to last week's, which Hines covered easily with five receptions on six targets (similar to his usage in the first two games as well). The reason I liked Hines receiving props at the beginning of the year was that I had read an offseason quote from Frank Reich saying they wanted get him more involved in the passing game, and on opening weekend, I read a separate quote from a Colts beat writer saying that Hines was expected to have "a much more robust package of plays" than last year, which of course lined up with the previous comment from Reich. All of this has held true so far, while Hines' receiving props have barely moved as a result. Let's hope this continues.

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Lamar Jackson over 54.5 rushing yards, -113 (FanDuel)

One thing that occurred to me right before the season started (when I saw that contract-extension talks had broken off between Jackson and the Ravens) was that Jackson might be a little more apt to run (perhaps especially near the goal line) in an effort to increase his value for contract negotiations. It even occurred to me that the Ravens might be on board with that as well, since they wouldn't be on the hook long-term if Jackson suffered an injury while doing so. In looking at his game logs from last year, what seemed to stick out was that Jackson's larger rushing totals had seemed to come in shootout-type games, and this one certainly qualifies. Also note that Jackson has gone well over a hundred yards in each of his last two games, both of which were shootout-type affairs. The only game this year where he posted a small rushing total was in the opener when the Ravens had a big lead over the Jets (hence no real need for him to run once they opened a big lead). Seems like a favorable spot here.

Josh Allen over 39.5 rushing yards, -113 (FanDuel)

I gave out Josh Allen rushing yards in Week 2 at a similar number, as I had noticed that Allen had covered that number in seven of his last eight games (at that point) going back to last season, including several games where he recorded double-digit rushing attempts. He promptly ripped off a 10-yard carry early in the game, and never recorded another rushing attempt. I should've stuck with it, as Allen went right back to double-digit carries (for 56 yards) last week. With that in mind, and with Allen nursing some kind of hand injury that he suffered late in last week's game, it seems likely that he'll be using his legs again here (perhaps especially with Jackson doing so on the other side). Seems a good gamble in what should be a competitive ballgame.

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Tony Pollard over 54.5 rushing + receiving yards, -114 (FanDuel)

I gave out Pollard receiving yards last week, after which he caught zero passes while running for over a hundred yards. Pretty much the way my season has gone so far. For those who followed last year, you may remember that the Pollard combo prop had been one of my favorite plays (cashing several times), but it was often frustrating, as Dallas tended to keep Pollard in bubble wrap while continuing to feature Ezekiel Elloitt. It seems the bubble wrap has come off this year (at least to some extent), with Pollard producing big plays the last couple of weeks (98+ combo yards in both games) in a pair of Cowboy wins. It's also worth noting this is the final year of Pollard's contract, so they may/should be more willing to use him before they lose him (especially considering he's their best RB anyway, which is becoming more and more apparent every week). Note: This same exact prop is listed eight yards higher (62.5) at DraftKings, so there's currently a middle opportunity should anyone want that.

Daniel Bellinger over 17.5 receiving yards, -120 (DraftKings)

The well-regarded rookie TE saw his volume spike last week, catching four passes on five targets for ten yards a pop. That was before the Giants' top WR Sterling Shepard suffered an injury late in the game, which would seem to indicate that Bellinger might take on an even larger role this week (not that he really needs one at this number).

Saquon Barkley over 28.5 receiving yards, -113 (FanDuel)

Barkley has been the third most-targeted player in the Giants passing game up to now (just two targets behind second-place Richie James, 17-15), and figures to see even more looks now with Shepard out of the equation. As you know, he's also a threat to break a long play at any time. Seems a soft number, especially with his receptions total listed at 4.5 (if he goes over, that's less than six yards per reception).

Diontae Johnson over 5.5 receptions, -128 (FanDuel)

As mentioned in this column several times previously, Diontae Johnson is almost always a good play at this 5.5 reception total, as he routinely logs double-digit targets. In fact, I believe he finished second overall in targets last year, and has picked right up where he left off, with 12, 10 and 11 targets over the first three weeks. He of course has covered this reception total in all three of those games. I'm not crazy about the higher juice here, but this is still a very likely winner, and most other places are listing him at least ten cents higher (Caesars currently has the over listed at -151, fwiw). Much safer play than his yardage total (which offers lower juice), as Diontae will often record less than ten yards per reception.

Jamaal Williams over 66.5 rushing yards, -113 (FanDuel)

With D'Andre Swift (and top receiving threat Amon-Ra St. Brown) out of the Detroit lineup this week, the Lions figure to lean heavily on Jamaal Williams while facing a porous Seattle run defense that has allowed 157.0 yards per game (tied for second-worst in the league). Also note that Williams logged 20 carries last week with Swift leaving the game early. Good value on the featured Lions RB in a game where Detroit is still a -3.5 home favorite.

Courtland Sutton over 65.5 receiving yards, -115 (DraftKings)

Good value here on the Broncos' talented WR1, who has covered this number in all three games while averaging 15.3 yards per reception. Also note that he drew double-digit targets in each of his last two games, recording 97+ yards both times. Not bad against the Raiders' 26th-ranked passing defense. He doesn't seem to be getting the respect that he deserves (similar to Tee Higgins, who is often listed in the same ballpark).

Romeo Doubs over 43.5 receiving yards, -115 (DraftKings)

I gave out Doubs over 23.5 receiving yards out on Twitter last week, as it seemed apparent he would be the featured Packers WR (or at least one of them) with Christian Watson and Sammy Watkins both out. Doubs indeed broke through with an impressive 8-73-1 line (catching all eight of his targets), with QB Aaron Rodgers lauding him afterwards (and even beforehand, really). I've been of the opinion that Rodgers doesn't seem to like throwing to Allen Lazard that much (having had plenty of opportunity to do so over the last couple of years), and have thought since the beginning of the year that Doubs (or possibly Watson) could easily supplant him if things go well. I believe that even more strongly after seeing the way Doubs performed last week, and even though they've tacked an extra 20 yards onto his receiving total since last week, this is still a very low bar to clear for anything resembling the Packers WR1. Get in on the ground floor, as this elevator may be headed to the penthouse.

Romeo Doubs over 3.5 receptions, -136 (FanDuel)

Gimme another just like the other. With Doubs catching all eight of his targets last week, and having such success with them, and with plenty of new targets available in the Packers passing offense following the departure of Davante Adams, Doubs seems very likely to catch four passes here.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Walter Hand
Walter is a former Las Vegas oddsmaker, and longtime successful fantasy player in both football and baseball.
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