This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Week 4 is upon us, and what a season it has been so far. Underdogs have prevailed so far this season, which makes our NFL Week 4 picks column an interesting one.
We have some particularly interesting trends for NFL betting so far this season. Per RotoWire's NFL Games Archive, favorites are covering just under 40 percent of the time and Unders are hitting 62.5 percent of the time. There are just two games with unanimous totals of 50-or-more points this week across all major sportsbooks and the only game with a spread larger than a touchdown -- Packers-Patriots -- is only that high because of an injury to a starting quarterback. In other words, Week 4 has a lot of tight spreads and low totals as oddsmakers adjust.
Below you'll find my picks against the spread and on the totals for each game on the Week 3 NFL slate. For more NFL betting content here at RotoWire, check out our NFL picks series with several articles dropping each week.
NFL Week 4 Betting Picks For Each Game
|Date||Game Matchup||Week 4 Picks|
|Thursday, September 29||Bengals vs. Dolphins||Bengals -3.5|
|Sunday, October 2||Saints vs. Vikings||Vikings -3.5|
|Sunday, October 2||Falcons vs. Browns||Browns -2.5|
|Sunday, October 2||Ravens vs. Bills||Bills -4|
|Sunday, October 2||Cowboys vs. Commanders||Cowboys -3|
|Sunday, October 2||Lions vs. Seahawks||Lions -5.0|
|Sunday, October 2||Texans vs. Chargers||Chargers -4.5|
|Sunday, October 2||Colts vs. Titans||Titans +3.5|
|Sunday, October 2||Giants vs. Bears||Giants -3|
|Sunday, October 2||Eagles vs. Jaguars||Ealges -6.5|
|Sunday, October 2||Steelers vs. Jets||Steelers -3.5|
|Sunday, October 2||Panthers vs. Cardinals||Panthers -1.5|
|Sunday, October 2||Packers vs. Patriots||Patriots +10.5|
|Sunday, October 2||Raiders vs. Broncos||Broncos +2.5|
|Sunday, October 2||Buccaneers vs. Chiefs||Chiefs -2.5|
|Monday, October 3||49ers vs. Rams||49ers -2.0|
Predictions for NFL Week 4
In this article, we also take a look at NFL Week 4 odds and our predictions for each NFL game.
Week 3 Record ATS: 8-7-1
Week 3 Record on Totals: 4-11-1
Bengals vs. Dolphins
|Bengals vs. Dolphins||Bengals (-3.5)||Bengals -175; Dolphins +150||47.5|
The Dolphins are undefeated, and more importantly, also undefeated against the spread this year. Cincinnati, meanwhile, got off the ropes this past week with a much-needed win against the Jets. Early money is coming in on the Dolphins, and it's understandable considering their start and who they've beaten. I'm still not sold that the Bengals can replicate the highs from last year but I still think they can get it done here. I'd wait to see if this number drops before locking in my wager on the Bengals as the status of Tua Tagovailoa will be key and will likely spur some significant line movement, but I think Miami is too public a side on the road in a short week following a huge, draining win at home over the Bills.
Spread Pick: Bengals -3.5
Total Pick: Over 47.5
Saints vs. Vikings
|Saints vs. Vikings||Vikings (-3.0)||Vikings -150; Saints +130||44.0|
Hand up, it slipped my mind that this game is in London. New Orleans does not in fact have a legitimate home field advantage at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, at least that I'm aware of. My Pick remains the same, though, and the line has moved to Vikings -2.5 at some books.
Historically, the Under has been the bet to target in London games. It had gone 7-3 from 2017-2019 and it was 1-1 last season in the return of London games. The Saints offense has mustered just 24 points over the last two weeks, including 14 against the Panthers.
Spread Pick: Vikings -2.5
Total Pick: Under 44.0
Falcons vs. Browns
|Falcons vs. Browns||Browns (-2.5)||Browns -135; Falcons +115||48.0|
Backing the Falcons has been profitable thus far this season as the Dirty Birds are 3-0 against the spread thus far. They're returning to Atlanta after two weeks on the west coast and now host a physical and well-rested Browns team. The Browns have the best rushing attack in football and rank fifth in yards per game overall, just like we all expected. Atlanta is also mistake-prone with seven turnovers and has no real home-field advantage. The Browns just need to win by a field goal and I think they get it done.
Spread Pick: Browns -2.5
Total Pick: Under 48.0
Ravens vs. Bills
|Ravens vs. Bills||Bills (-4.0)||Bills -190; Ravens +160||51.5|
This sets up as arguably the game of the week. Buffalo looked mortal in its loss to the Dolphins; the Bills' non-existent run game puts them in a spot where Josh Allen has to be superhuman every week for them to have success. The defense, though it played well in Miami, is still banged up and the secondary will continue to be a concern until they prove otherwise.
That's not to say Baltimore isn't without its flaws, though. The Dolphins exposed those flaws in Week 2, showing that the Ravens' secondary is prone to giving up big plays and that problem is exacerbated by a lack of pass-rush. That said, Lamar Jackson is playing at a level we haven't seen since his MVP season in 2019 despite the lack of weapons around him or reliable run game.
It's cliche, but this feels like a game that comes down to the final possession and I still give a slight edge to the Bills. Josh Allen with time to carve up the defense will be the difference.
Spread Pick: Bills -4
Total Pick: Over 51.5
Cowboys vs. Commanders
|Cowboys vs. Commanders||Cowboys (-3.0)||Cowboys -165; Commanders +140||42.5|
Dallas obviously has a thin margin for error in its offensive game planning with Cooper Rush behind center, but he has looked about as good as they could have hoped for in his two starts this season. He has protected the ball and made timely throws when he's had to and Washington doesn't seem equipped to force the issue as far as turnovers go as the Commanders have just one takeaway thus far this season. If you're breaking this game down by position group, Dallas has a decided edge at almost every spot except for quarterback, and it might not be that big of a gap there.
Another big factor here is Dallas' pass-rush advantage. Dallas leads the league in sacks as it is and Washington is tied for the most sacks allowed. Carson Wentz being under duress all day does not add up to a recipe for success for the road underdogs.
Spread Pick: Dallas -3
Total Pick: Over 42.5
Lions vs. Seahawks
|Lions vs. Seahawks||Lions (-5.0)||Lions -250; Seahawks +210||50.0|
The Lions have some key injuries; D'Andre Swift may be out through the bye and Amon-Ra St. Brown is iffy to play as of this writing. However, the Lions are deep (?!) at the skill positions and should be able to overcome one or both of those absences. The Seahawks are continuing to show their true colors after their Week 1 win and have back-to-back uninspired losses. This is a big number for the Lions to cover, especially if Swift and St. Brown are out, but the Seahawks' overall incompetence should do a lot of the heavy lifting. 50.0 does feel too rich for my blood; I like the Lions to win in an ugly but convincing fashion.
Spread Pick: Lions -5.0
Total Pick: 50.0
Texans vs. Chargers
|Texans vs. Chargers||Chargers (-4.5)||Chargers -240; Texans +200||46.0|
The Chargers suddenly have some serious questions after getting trounced at home by the Jaguars. Leaving aside the argument that the Jaguars may be much better than expected, we don't know if we'll be getting a full-strength Justin Herbert this Sunday. We also have to worry about the offensive line in light of star left tackle Rashawn Slater going down for the season with a torn biceps tendon. The Chargers had actually done a good job of keeping Herbert upright this season save for the play against the Chiefs as they've allowed three sacks all season, but that could change with Slater being out.
Despite those issues on offense, the Texans probably aren't the team to make the Chargers pay for them. This is a good buy-low spot on Los Angeles. The line has dropped precipitously -- 3.5 points -- since Monday.
Spread Pick: Chargers -4.5
Total Pick: Under 44.5
Colts vs. Titans
|Colts vs. Titans||Colts (-3.5)||Colts -175; Titans +150||42.5|
Both these teams were able to get off the mat and into the win column in Week 3 to avoid disastrous starts to their seasons. Indianapolis was a team that was getting too many points to ignore at home last week but I still do not believe in this team. Tennessee isn't particularly inspiring either, to be clear, and its run defense is a concern going up against Jonathan Taylor.
The Titans have the coaching advantage and have won three straight games outright in Indianapolis. I think that trend continues, but if it doesn't, they should still stay within the number.
Spread Pick: Titans +3.5
Total Pick: Over 42.5
Giants vs. Bears
|Giants vs. Bears||Giants (-3.0)||Giants -155; Bears +135||39.5|
Ick. This has to be the worst matchup of 2-1 teams in recent memory. The Giants looked horrible on Monday night, losing at home to the Cooper Rush-led Cowboys and losing Sterling Sheppard for the season in the process.
The Bears, meanwhile, are coming off a last-second win over the Houston Texans at home, so that's a fairly hollow achievement. Chicago still does not look like it can win a game in which it has to throw the ball. The Texans may have been the only team in the league the Bears could have beaten this past Sunday. Even if the Giants aren't good necessarily, they're closer to mediocre than the Bears and they're the home side. I could see this line moving up to the 4 or 4.5 range as 90% of the money is coming in on New York at the DraftKings Sportsbook as of this writing.
Spread Pick: Giants -3
Total Pick: Under 39.5
Eagles vs. Jaguars
|Eagles vs. Jaguars||Eagles (-6.5)||Eagles -265; Jaguars +225||48.5|
The Eagles' strong start has put them in the top three in the current Super Bowl odds and the Jaguars are one of the pleasant surprises through the first three weeks. Even if the Jags weren't facing a full-strength Chargers offense, going across the country and hanging 38 points on them is impressive. The spread has only moved a half-point since Sunday, though, which signals that the oddsmakers are still very confident in the Eagles and that the money is coming in evenly on both sides.
I don't like laying this many points against a Jaguars team that really appears to be turning a corner, but I believe that the Eagles are the best team in the NFC and their travel schedule has been far less extreme than Jacksonville having to ping-pong from coast to coast and back.
Spread Pick: Eagles -6.5
Total Pick: Over 48.5
Steelers vs. Jets
|Steelers vs. Jets||Steelers (-3.5)||Steelers -170; Jets +145||41.5|
Zach Wilson is expected to make his return, but that doesn't appear to be a major needle-mover on the spread as the spread has moved just a half point since Sunday. The money is coming in on the Jets covering at a 62/38 split so far.
To be clear, this is a wounded Steelers team and a quarterback change of their own could be coming before too long. However, their flaws -- bad quarterback play, bad offensive line play, bad run defense -- might not be all that exploitable by the Jets. The Steelers are still a well-coached team and they're at home. I see this as an ugly 24-17 win for Pittsburgh fueled by some Wilson turnovers.
Spread Pick: Steelers -3.5
Total Pick: Under 41.5
Panthers vs. Cardinals
|Panthers vs. Cardinals||Panthers (-1.5)||Panthers -125; Cardinals +105||44.0|
I loved the Panthers as home underdogs last week. Them being home favorites is another story. The betting splits are really interesting here, too. At DraftKings, the Cardinals are getting 74 percent of the betting volume on the spread, but 70% of the money is coming in on Carolina. You don't see such extreme splits too often, and it's hard to know what to make of it. As much as I don't trust the Panthers, I still believe the Cardinals to be extremely flawed in their own right and they have to travel west to east. That's not a trend that holds as much water as it used to, to be fair, but this is still a small enough number for the Panthers to cover that I will hold my nose and back the home team.
Spread Pick: Panthers -1.5
Total Pick: Over 44.0
Packers vs. Patriots
|Packers vs. Patriots||Packers (-10.5)||Packers -490; Patriots +290||39.5|
The Mac Jones injury in New England has shaken up this spread considerably as it has moved from Packers -6 as of 2:07 PM Eastern on Sunday to -10.5 as of this writing with a spike up to 11 on Monday morning. My thinking is New England wasn't going to do much on offense in this spot even with a healthy Jones, and now an underwhelming Green Bay offense is being tasked with covering more than 10 points. This feels like a spot where Bill Belichick schemes up the right kind of game plan to keep this one closer than it should be. Perhaps that's too deferential to Belichick relative to this current Patriots team, but the Packers don't look like a team that's going to blow many teams out this year, either.
A hefty amount of money is coming in on Green Bay, so those interested in the New England side may want to wait and see if the line climbs even further as the week progresses.
Spread Pick: Patriots +10.5
Total Pick: Under 39.5
Raiders vs. Broncos
|Raiders vs. Broncos||Raiders (-2.5)||Raiders -120; Broncos +100||46.0|
Before the season started you would have circled this game as one of the best that Week 4 had to offer. Now it looks like a potential rock fight between two broken and desperate teams. Denver escaped with a win Sunday night at home thanks in large part to Jimmy G while Vegas is still searching for its first win under Josh McDaniels.
The Broncos haven't given us much to be impressed by thus far, though the defense did look nasty Sunday night against the 49ers after the first quarter. The Raiders have somehow been worse. They look disjointed and while it's still early, expecting them to figure it out seems like a dubious proposition. I'll begrudgingly back the road underdogs as the spread increases.
The line has moved from Raiders -1.0 to -2.5 since Sunday and the total is climbing as well.
Spread Pick: Broncos +2.5 Let's Ride
Total Pick: Under 46.0
Buccaneers vs. Chiefs
|Buccaneers vs. Chiefs||Chiefs (-2.5)||Chiefs -135; Buccaneers +115||44.5|
Kansas City is looking to bounce back from an embarrassing loss Sunday in Indianapolis while Tampa Bay is coming off a tough loss of its own that continued to raise concerns about the offense. The Bucs' offense didn't get going until it absolutely had to late in the fourth quarter and it still wasn't enough. They failed to cross the 300-yard mark as a team for the second week in a row, which signals that this might be about more than Tampa Bay running into tough defenses.
Kansas City's offense has looked disjointed the last two weeks after seeming to not skip a beat in Week 1 and Tampa Bay's defense presents a tough matchup for it. My strongest lean in this game is on the under, though for the sake of this article I will also side with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Bear in mind that Hurricane Ian's looming landfall makes it uncertain whether this game will be played in Tampa.
Spread Pick: Chiefs -2.5
Total Pick: Under 44.5
49ers vs. Rams
|49ers vs. Rams||49ers (-2.5)||49ers -145; Rams +125||43.0|
It might seem surprising to some that the 49ers would be favored after looking dreadful Sunday night against a Denver team that is extremely flawed. The Rams have righted the ship since their own nationally televised embarrassment to start the season, though those wins have come against the Falcons and Cardinals. Los Angeles let both of those teams hang around instead of putting them away as they did in those spots all of last season, so I'm not ready to say that the Rams have fixed everything just yet.
San Francisco is 6-3 against the spread vs. the Rams since 2018 (one playoff game) and the 49ers' defense is good enough to rise up and win a game in spite of the rickety and banged-up offense.
Spread Pick: 49ers -2.5
Total Pick: Under 43.0
NFL Week 4 Best Bets
Next, we take a look at our favorite Week 4 NFL best bets at the best NFL betting sites.
BetMGM Best Bets for NFL Week 4
BetMGM offers some of the best odds available for NFL Week 4. Sign up at BetMGM using the BetMGM bonus code ROTOBONUS for a risk-free bet worth up to $1,000. Here are our best bets for Week 4 at BetMGM.
- Titans +3.5
- Vikings Moneyline -139
Caesars Sportsbook Best Bets for NFL Week 4
Let's take a look at our favorite bets for Week 4 at Caesars Sportsbook, which has a full suite of NFL bets to choose from ranging from spreads to player props and everything in between. If you are not registered yet, use the Caesars Sportsbook promo code ROTOFULL for a first bet on Caesars.
- Browns -1.5
- Cowboys -3.0
WynnBET Best Bets for NFL Week 4
WynnBet has a strong menu of NFL Week 3 wagers to choose from, along with competitive odds. If you do not have a WynnBET account, you can sign up with the WynnBET promo code XROTO for up to $100 in free bets.
- Bills -3
- Under 44 (-110)
DraftKings Best Bets for NFL Week 4
Let's take a look at NFL Week 4 best bets using the odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Chargers -4.5
- Giants-Bears Under 39.0
FanDuel Best Bets for NFL Week 4
FanDuel Sportsbook is one of the most popular sportsbooks in the game. Let's take a look at our favorite betting picks with FanDuel odds for NFL Week 4.
- Bengals -3.5
- 49ers-Rams Under 43.0
BetRivers Best Bets for NFL Week 4
BetRivers is an up-and-coming and underrated sportsbook with competitive odds, and they are offering up to $500 in second-chance bets with the BetRivers bonus code. Bettors can use those for these picks on Week 4.
- Dolphins-Bengals Over 47.0
PointsBet Best Bets for NFL Week 4
For bettors looking for unique way to wager, try the PointsBet promo code for our Week 4 NFL picks. You can try "PointsBetting" for Week 4 and maximize your return.
- Panthers -1.5
- Chiefs-Bucs Under 45.5
Look ahead at the NFL Week 4 odds as well as our article on early NFL line movement.