NFL Week 2 Spreads and Key Line Movement

NFL Week 2 Spreads and Key Line Movement

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

NFL Week 2 Spreads and Key Line Movement

The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention. 

Now that Week One is in the books (except for MNF), we have injuries and the classic overreactions in Week Two to consider. This is when line moves really become a factor in handicapping which way to bet. While we had 10 home dogs in Week 1, we only have one this week. 

The trend I see in Week Two is a TON of low totals due to matchups with poor offenses and/or strong defenses. We have five favorites of 9 points or higher whereas in Week 1, the highest favorites ended up at -7. 

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NFL Week 2 Odds

Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) O/U 54.5

New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns (-6.5) O/U 42.5

Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions (-2.0) O/U 47.0

Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens (-4) O/U 45.5

Indianapolis Colts (-4.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars O/U 45.5

Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants (-2.5) O/U 42.5

New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.0) O/U 41.5

Atlanta Falcons @ Los Angeles Rams (-11.5) O/U 48.0

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) O/U 42.5

Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos (-10.5) O/U 43.5

Arizona Cardinals @ Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5) O/U 52.0

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (-9.5) O/U 44.0

Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills (-9.5) O/U 50.0

Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3.0) O/U 49.5

NFL Week 2 Line Movement: Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys

This line opened Cowboys -2 but has immediately been taken off the board due to the thumb injury to Dak Prescott. There are some oddsmakers that have already reopened this line with the Bengals at -7. That is a 9-point swing, which is much higher than what we would normally see on a quarterback change. I wrote about this in last week's article and typically seven points in the highest adjustment that oddsmakers will take on the top quarterbacks. 

The original total of 50.5 will most likely be reopened around 42-43 points with about a 7-to-9-point adjustment down as well.  

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NFL Week 2 Line Movement: New York Jets at Cleveland Browns

We saw significant line movement in the Panthers/Browns and Ravens/Jets last week. This week, we see it all on the Browns who have moved from -4.5 in May to -6.5 and back down to -6.0 in most spots. The total has dropped from 43 to 42 and I think it will continue to move down as neither team will be able to move the ball in the air. This should be a very run-heavy game with both teams starting backup quarterbacks. 

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NFL Week 2 Line Movement: Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams

This game opened Rams -13.5 all the way back in May and ticked down to -12 after the Thursday night loss. It is now sitting at Rams -11.5 (dipped to -11) after the Falcons' close loss at home to the Saints. If the Falcons had won, I think it could have gone all the way to -10 and I still think we could see that happen. 

The Rams' offensive line looked awful and the Falcons recorded four sacks against the Saints. Matthew Stafford struggled as he did not have much time to set up in the pocket and he also looked rusty, perhaps from the lingering elbow issue. 

The total has come down from 49.5 and is sitting at the key number of 48. 

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NFL Week 2 Line Movement: Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills

This game is the perfect case example for line movement 101 as you have the Bills who blew out the Rams in prime time on Thursday and the Titans who lost at home against the Giants.

The line opened Bills -7.0 and moved to -8.5 right after the Thursday night win and now it stands at -9.5 after the Titans' loss. I would expect this line to hit -10 rather quickly and stay there. 

The total opened 47 and then jumped to 51 and back down to 50. This is also a double revenge spot for the Bills who lost at Tennessee each of the last two years.

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If you are looking for picks, check out our NFL Week 2 picks, predictions, and best bets.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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