San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Monday Night Football Week 7
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Monday Night Football brings an NFC conference matchup of two teams dealing with a ton of injuries when the Minnesota Vikings (2-4) host the San Francisco 49ers (5-1). Let's dig into the betting market and discuss three wagers that could prove to be profitable.
49ers vs. Vikings Betting Odds for Monday Night Football
49ers: Spread -6.5 (-110), -270 Moneyline
Vikings: Spread +6.5 (-110), +220 Moneyline
Game Total: 44.0 points
This line opened at 49ers -1.0 and moved to -6.5 or -7.0 about 10 days ago depending on what sportsbook you use. The 49ers are coming off their first loss of the season on the road to the Browns, 19-17. A game in which the 49ers had multiple injuries to key players, bad weather, and a rookie kicker that went 1-for-3 in field goal attempts. The Vikings are coming off a divisional road win against the Bears, 19-13, where their offense struggled without Justin Jefferson.
The total has gone from 47.0 to 44.0 (3.0-point move), which may not be enough considering the injuries on both sides.
Totaling bets thus far, 71 percent of the money and 77 percent of the bets are on the 49ers. There is 67 percent of the money on the 49ers' money line, which is 92 percent of the bets. There is 64 percent of the money and 59 percent of the bets on the UNDER.
Key injury situations to watch
49ers: Christian McCaffrey (Questionable), Deebo Samuel (OUT), Trent Williams (Doubtful), Dre Greenlaw (Questionable)
Vikings: Justin Jefferson (OUT), Marcus Davenport (OUT)
49ers vs. Vikings Betting Picks This Week
49ers vs. Vikings Best Bet: Vikings UNDER 17.5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -115)
The Vikings are missing the best wide receiver in football in Justin Jefferson and are now facing an angry 49ers defense coming off a tough road loss against the Browns. The Vikings are not going to be able to run the ball, which will put Kirk Cousins in a ton of passing situations and bad things will happen.
I was looking at the game and Vikings under, but 17.5 is a great number to play on under because 17 and 20 are key numbers. I have a hard time seeing the Vikings getting to 20 points in this game (2 TDs, 2 FGs). THIS LINE MOVED WHEN I WAS WRITING THIS from 18.5 so that should tell you something.
This is a Vikings team that just scored 19 points against the Bears and 7 of those points were a result of a defensive touchdown (fumble return). They had a total of 220 yards on offense (174 passing, 46 rushing).
49ers vs. Vikings Best Bet: Kirk Cousins OVER 0.5 interceptions for 1 unit (FanDuel -114)
No running game, 3rd and long every drive, and the 49ers lead the NFL with 10 interceptions. This looks like one of the best bets of the week. Cousins has only thrown 3 interceptions all season, but could throw that many in this game alone.
49ers vs. Vikings Best Bet: Alexander Mattison UNDER 2.5 receptions (FanDuel +134)
Most books have this posted at 3.5 with juice on the UNDER around -130 to -140. Rotowire projections have Mattison at just 2.0 receptions so I will roll the dice on the plus money.
49ers vs. Vikings Prediction
49ers - #1 overall DVOA, #2 DVOA offense, #5 DVOA defense
Vikings - #16 overall DVOA, #15 DVOA offense, #15 DVOA defense
This is a bad matchup for the Vikings, but the 49ers are laying points on the road the second week in a row and they are not 100 percent. I do like the 49ers to control the game and not allow the Vikings to gain much on offense. But I would not be surprised if the 49ers also struggled on offense and this was a very low-scoring game like the Browns last week.
