Streaming Defenses: Week 4 Options

Streaming Defenses: Week 4 Options

This article is part of our Streaming Defenses series.

Week 3 brought big totals for D/ST fantasy scoring for the first time this year, and it just so happened that it was our streaming recommendations leading the charge. The top three picks from this space each finished among the top four in points, with Indianapolis (26), Cleveland (14) and Tampa Bay (18) all doing more than enough to swing the outcome in close fantasy matchups. 

We obviously can't promise that type of success every week, but there is a really strong track record for our top-three picks. Going back to the start of last season, our No. 1 choices have averaged 12.1 fantasy points, while our No. 2 picks have produced 8.9, and No. 3s have put up 9.2. For a point of comparison, there were only three defenses last season with a double-digit scoring average, and then four others in the 9-10 ppg range. This year has been even harsher, with only five defenses above seven points per game so far.

As always, the D/ST spot has shown the highest level of matchup-dependence out of any fantasy position, which means streaming will probably be the smart play at some point this season even if you've been pleased with the unit you drafted so far.

For injury/ranking updates throughout the week, you can follow me on Twitter (@RotowireNFL_JD).

Note: These recommendations are limited to team defenses that are rostered on less than 60 percent of teams on Yahoo or 45 percent on ESPN. Any references to fantasy

Week 3 brought big totals for D/ST fantasy scoring for the first time this year, and it just so happened that it was our streaming recommendations leading the charge. The top three picks from this space each finished among the top four in points, with Indianapolis (26), Cleveland (14) and Tampa Bay (18) all doing more than enough to swing the outcome in close fantasy matchups. 

We obviously can't promise that type of success every week, but there is a really strong track record for our top-three picks. Going back to the start of last season, our No. 1 choices have averaged 12.1 fantasy points, while our No. 2 picks have produced 8.9, and No. 3s have put up 9.2. For a point of comparison, there were only three defenses last season with a double-digit scoring average, and then four others in the 9-10 ppg range. This year has been even harsher, with only five defenses above seven points per game so far.

As always, the D/ST spot has shown the highest level of matchup-dependence out of any fantasy position, which means streaming will probably be the smart play at some point this season even if you've been pleased with the unit you drafted so far.

For injury/ranking updates throughout the week, you can follow me on Twitter (@RotowireNFL_JD).

Note: These recommendations are limited to team defenses that are rostered on less than 60 percent of teams on Yahoo or 45 percent on ESPN. Any references to fantasy points are based on Yahoo standard scoring, which doesn't include yards allowed.

Top Streaming Options for Week 4

1. Los Angeles Rams (vs. NYG)

58% rostered on Yahoo, 28% on ESPN

Team implied total: 30

Opponent implied total: 17

Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 5: 5th (at WAS),  Week 6: 9th (at SF)

The Rams don't have much on defense after Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, but they shouldn't need any more than that in a home game against the Giants, playing as 13-point favorites against a team that's allowed at least eight fantasy points to the opponent defense each week this season. The Rams also have a great matchup Week 5 at Washington, so it's reasonable to use waiver priority or a few dollars of FAAB here.

  

2. Denver Broncos (at NYJ)

37% Yahoo, 39% ESPN

Team implied total: 21.5

Opponent implied total: 18.5

Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 5: 26th (at NE),  Week 6: 8th (vs. MIA)

The Denver defense has suffered nearly as many key injuries as the Jets offense, but while the former has at least managed to put up a fight, the latter has completely folded. Denver kept the Titans, Steelers and Bucs under 30 points, while Gang Green has yet to crack 20 in a game. The Broncos did lose DE Jurrell Casey to a torn biceps this past weekend, so even with the primo matchup there's a big drop off from out No. 1 streaming pick (the Rams) to our No. 2 choice.

  

3. New York Jets (vs. DEN)

6% Yahoo, 2% ESPN

Team implied total: 18.5

Opponent implied total: 21.5

Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 5: 22nd (vs. ARZ),  Week 6: 25th (at LAC)

Braxton Berrios! Tim Patrick! Jeff Driskel! Brett Rypien! Technically, this will be NFL football, but really, we all know better. While the Jets are a flaming disaster, their defense should be functional for fantasy purposes in a home game against a Denver offense that's allowed the second-most points to D/ST units. The Broncos won't have Drew Lock, Phillip Lindsay or Courtland Sutton for Thursday's game, and it isn't clear if Driskel or Rypien will get the start under center. Plus, the Jets defense has been merely bad — not quite disgraceful — ranking 22nd in net yards per pass attempt (6.9) and 13th in YPC (4.3).

  

4. Cincinnati Bengals (vs. JAX)

2% Yahoo, 3% ESPN

Team implied total: 25.5

Opponent implied total: 22.5

Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 5: 30th (at BAL),  Week 6: 27th (at IND)

The Cincinnati defense finally showed signs of life this past Sunday, coming up with three sacks and two takeaways while limiting the Eagles to 23 points on 13 drives. That's not to say this group inspires a high level of confidence, but neither does the Jacksonville offense, especially after last week's huge TNF disappointment against the Dolphins. Jags wideout DJ Chark (chest/back) remains up in the air, while Bengals DT Geno Atkins (shoulder) could be back for Week 4. (To be fair, we'll have to drop the Bengals down the rankings a couple spots if it ends up swinging the other direction, with Chark suiting up while Atkins misses another week.)

  

5. Green Bay Packers (vs. ATL)

15% Yahoo, 8% ESPN

Team implied total: 32.75

Opponent implied total: 25.25

Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 5: Bye,  Week 6: 20th (at TB)

This game has the highest over/under of the week, but it also gives us a red-hot Packers team favored by 7.5 points against an Atlanta squad that's thrown the fourth-most passes (43 per game) in the league. While the Falcons figure to score some points, their frequent QB dropbacks will give the Packers defense ample opportunity for sacks and takeaways. The other option for this No. 5 spot is Seattle, another all-offense, no-defense team that's a comfortable favorite this week (-6.5 at Miami). 

  

Week 4 Rankings

  1. Baltimore Ravens (at WAS)
  2. Los Angeles Rams (vs. NYG)
  3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. LAC)
  4. Denver Broncos (at NYJ)
  5. San Francisco 49ers (vs. PHI)
  6. Indianapolis Colts (at CHI)
  7. New York Jets (vs. DEN)
  8. Chicago Bears (vs. IND)
  9. Cincinnati Bengals (vs. JAX) - moved down a spot with Atkins out, Chark in
  10. Green Bay Packers (vs. ATL)
  11. Seattle Seahawks (at MIA)
  12. Arizona Cardinals (at CAR)
  13. Kansas City Chiefs (at NE)
  14. Pittsburgh Steelers (at TEN)
  15. Houston Texans (vs. MIN)
  16. Buffalo Bills (vs. LVR)
  17. Tennessee Titans (vs. PIT)
  18. Jacksonville Jaguars (at CIN)
  19. Dallas Cowboys (vs. CLE)
  20. Philadelphia Eagles (at SF)

Looking Ahead to Week 5

  1. San Francisco 49ers (vs. MIA)
  2. New England Patriots (vs. DEN)
  3. Baltimore Ravens (vs. CIN)
  4. Los Angeles Rams (at WAS)
  5. New Orleans Saints (vs. LAC)
  6. Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. PHI)
  7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at CHI)
  8. Arizona Cardinals (at NYJ)
  9. Dallas Cowboys (vs. NYG)
  10. Houston Texans (vs. JAX)
  11. Kansas City Chiefs (vs. LVR)
  12. Atlanta Falcons (vs. CAR)
  13. Indianapolis Colts (at CLE)
  14. Cleveland Browns (vs. IND)
  15. Washington Football Team (vs. LAR)
  16. Chicago Bears (vs. TB)
  17. Buffalo Bills (at TEN)
  18. Seattle Seahawks (vs. MIN)
  19. Tennessee Titans (vs. BUF)
  20. Philadelphia Eagles (at PIT)

Rest-of-Season Rankings

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers
  2. Baltimore Ravens
  3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  4. New England Patriots
  5. San Francisco 49ers
  6. Kansas City Chiefs
  7. Buffalo Bills
  8. Los Angeles Chargers
  9. Indianapolis Colts
  10. New Orleans Saints
  11. Green Bay Packers
  12. Chicago Bears
  13. Los Angeles Rams
  14. Washington Football Team
  15. Tennessee Titans
  16. Philadelphia Eagles
  17. Denver Broncos
  18. Cleveland Browns
  19. Arizona Cardinals
  20. Detroit Lions

Want to Read More?
Subscribe to RotoWire to see the full article.

We reserve some of our best content for our paid subscribers. Plus, if you choose to subscribe you can discuss this article with the author and the rest of the RotoWire community.

Get Instant Access To This Article Get Access To This Article
RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only NFL Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire NFL fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
Thursday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Bengals vs. Ravens
Thursday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Bengals vs. Ravens
NFL Game Previews: Bengals-Ravens Matchup
NFL Game Previews: Bengals-Ravens Matchup
Exploiting the Matchups: Week 10 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers
Exploiting the Matchups: Week 10 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers
NFL Week 10 Picks, Predictions, Props and Best Bets for Every Game
NFL Week 10 Picks, Predictions, Props and Best Bets for Every Game