This article is part of our Survivor series.
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PATRIOTS | Colts | 43.10% | 450 | 81.82 | 7.84 |
| PANTHERS | Giants | 20.00% | 290 | 74.36 | 5.13 |
| BENGALS | Dolphins | 10.10% | 265 | 72.60 | 2.77 |
| SAINTS | Redskins | 6.90% | 275 | 73.33 | 1.84 |
| Rams | SEAHAWKS | 4.70% | 300 | 75.00 | 1.18 |
| Titans | BILLS | 3.50% | 175 | 63.64 | 1.27 |
| CHARGERS | Raiders | 3.10% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.94 |
| 49ERS | Cardinals | 2.20% | 195 | 66.10 | 0.75 |
| Broncos | JETS | 1.00% | 86 | 46.24 | 0.54 |
| Ravens | BROWNS | 1.00% | 135 | 57.45 | 0.43 |
| Packers | LIONS | 1.00% | 110 | 52.38 | 0.48 |
| TEXANS | Cowboys | 0.80% | 160 | 61.54 | 0.31 |
| CHIEFS | Jaguars | 0.70% | 150 | 60.00 | 0.28 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
The Patriots are the highest-owned team on the board, and if you think they'll push 50 percent in your pools, you'll want to pivot off them. That said, at 43 percent (what we see here), I'd still make them my pick. The short week benefits the home team, T.Y. Hilton might not play (though Rob Gronkowski could also be out) and the Colts are coming off a grueling overtime game. I give the Patriots an 83 percent chance to win this game.
2. Carolina Panthers
The Giants beat the Texans in Houston two weeks ago, but Eli Manning is a massive liability
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PATRIOTS | Colts | 43.10% | 450 | 81.82 | 7.84 |
| PANTHERS | Giants | 20.00% | 290 | 74.36 | 5.13 |
| BENGALS | Dolphins | 10.10% | 265 | 72.60 | 2.77 |
| SAINTS | Redskins | 6.90% | 275 | 73.33 | 1.84 |
| Rams | SEAHAWKS | 4.70% | 300 | 75.00 | 1.18 |
| Titans | BILLS | 3.50% | 175 | 63.64 | 1.27 |
| CHARGERS | Raiders | 3.10% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.94 |
| 49ERS | Cardinals | 2.20% | 195 | 66.10 | 0.75 |
| Broncos | JETS | 1.00% | 86 | 46.24 | 0.54 |
| Ravens | BROWNS | 1.00% | 135 | 57.45 | 0.43 |
| Packers | LIONS | 1.00% | 110 | 52.38 | 0.48 |
| TEXANS | Cowboys | 0.80% | 160 | 61.54 | 0.31 |
| CHIEFS | Jaguars | 0.70% | 150 | 60.00 | 0.28 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
The Patriots are the highest-owned team on the board, and if you think they'll push 50 percent in your pools, you'll want to pivot off them. That said, at 43 percent (what we see here), I'd still make them my pick. The short week benefits the home team, T.Y. Hilton might not play (though Rob Gronkowski could also be out) and the Colts are coming off a grueling overtime game. I give the Patriots an 83 percent chance to win this game.
2. Carolina Panthers
The Giants beat the Texans in Houston two weeks ago, but Eli Manning is a massive liability behind a weak offensive line, and the Panthers should get after him at home. I give the Panthers a 77 percent chance to win this game.
3. New Orleans Saints
Their defense showed up last week, and the offense is still among the league's best. The Redskins are no doormat, but their dink and dunk passing game should have a hard time keeping up, especially in the dome. I give the Saints a 74 percent chance of winning this game.
4. Los Angeles Rams
This would be an odd spot to use them - on the road in Seattle - but the Rams are so strong on both sides of the ball, and the Seahawks are strong on neither. Russell Wilson is still dangerous, but it's hard to see Seattle's defense, now without Earl Thomas, slowing down the Rams. I give the Rams a 73 percent chance to win this game.
5. Cincinnati Bengals
The Dolphins are better than they showed last week, but it's hard to argue they're above average in any phase of the game, and the Bengals look much better on offense this year, thanks to improved offensive line play. I give them a 73 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions
Los Angeles Chargers - They always choked away the game against the C.J. Beathard 49ers, and the now they get a division rival with an improved offense on what amounts to a neutral field.
San Francisco 49ers - The Cardinals are a doormat, but Josh Rosen could give them a lift, and the 49ers without their starting QB are a below average team.
