It was almost a perfect lineup for me last week with Marquise Goodwin and Alex Collins leading the way as my value plays. I say almost because Jordan Howard completely flopped against a bad run defense. And thatís the last time this season Iíll back anyone from Chicago. For Week 14, Iím feeling confident and making some bold picks. Hopefully you trust me at this pointÖ
Blaine Gabbert, ARI vs. TEN ($10,600): Iíve done a lot of crazy things this season and this may top them all. Iím backing Blaine Gabbert this week. Gabbert has been competent against some of the best pass defenses in recent weeks (Rams, Jags) and a matchup with the Titansí 25th-ranked pass defense (according to Football Outsidersí DVOA) could easily result in 20 fantasy points. The Titans just let Tom Savage carve them up for 365 yards, if that says anything. Sure, Gabbert will throw an interception or two, but heís shown he can be a viable quarterback at home throwing for a combined 462 yards and three touchdowns against two top-five defenses the last two weeks.
Samaje Perine, WAS at LAC ($9,800): There wasnít a high-end running back that jumped off the page for me, which leads to Perine at this price. As long as this game is semi-competitive, Perine should be in line for around 20 touches and even better is that heís being used in the passing game more with Chris Thompson out. Perine has three catches in each of the last two games and the Chargers weak spot is against the run (28th per DVOA), which is where Washington will attack.
Alex Collins, BAL at PIT ($8,800): I liked Collins more last week but was surprised that his price didnít go up yet. Heís reached 13 fantasy points in the last three games and continues to be the focal point of this offense. In a game thatís expected to be lower scoring and tight, Collins should see plenty of work against a defense that is (unfortunately) without its middle linebacker. The Steelers also let Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard total 20 carries for 111 yards against them on Monday.
Antonio Brown, PIT vs. BAL ($17,000): On the other side of Collins is a wide receiver I canít pass up. There are other guys I like, but Brown has been on a tear with at least 27 fantasy points in his last three games. The Ravens shut him down in the last meeting, but without Jimmy Smith this time around, that wonít be easy. A lot of people will fade Brown because of the matchup, but Brown will get at least 10 targets against a team that just lost its top corner. Iím not betting against him.
DeAndre Hopkins, HOU vs. SF ($13,900): I had A.J. Green here then realized I needed to stop backing offenses in the AFC North. Hopkins dropped $400 from last week and that sounds great to me against the 49ers, who rank 26th against No. 1 wide receivers (DVOA). The over/under (43.5) feels a bit low in this game because I think both of these offenses can move the ball on weaker defenses. Hopkins is a model of consistency and has reached at least 16 fantasy points in his last six games (five with Savage). I also think heíll return to the end zone with only one touchdown in his last three.
Cameron Brate, TB vs. DET ($7,500): Stephen Anderson ($5,700) is worth a look, but the best thing the 49ers have done this season is limit tight ends. As for Brate, heís relevant again with Jameis Winston at quarterback. In the four games prior to Winstonís return, Brate failed to top one reception. In every other game this season, Brate has at least two catches and last week those receptions came in the end zone. The Lions also rank 31st against tight ends, according to DVOA.
Larry Fitzgerald, ARI vs. TEN ($13,500): Everyone knew this pick was coming after I started the article with Gabbert. Fitzgerald has reached at least 24 fantasy points in three of the last four games and that down performance came against the stout Jacksonville secondary. Gabbertís main route of success is through Fitzgerald and thatís exactly how this game will play out against the Titans.
Davante Adams, GB at CLE ($12,000): There are a few places to turn in this last spot, but Adams stands out in what is close to a must-win game for the Packers. Even though Brett Hundley had just 84 passing yards last week, Adams had 42 of them. Heís been Hundleyís main target with at least four catches in the last five games. The Packers wonít run the ball as well as they did last week against the Bucs and that should lead to more passes headed Adamsís way.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. WAS ($6,400): While the Chargers donít have much home-field advantage, it still helps to host a team from the East Coast. Washingtonís offense has flailed the last couple weeks, allowing 10 sacks while Kirk Cousins has tossed three interceptions. As for the Chargers, they have 55 fantasy points in the last three weeks with the help of six sacks and eight interceptions.