Betting on Golf: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

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Published on February 1, 2022

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Preview

We've reached week three of the California Swing, as the PGA Tour heads north for the iconic views along the Pacific Ocean and this week's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

We are back to using the same format we saw two weeks ago at The American Express, with players rotating between three courses -- Pebble Beach, Monterey Peninsula and Spyglass Hill -- over the first three rounds, and those making the cut playing the final round at Pebble Beach. The big difference this time around is the pro-am aspect, which includes a host of celebrity participants. The field is headlined by world No. 4 Patrick Cantlay, the favorite at 13-2 odds, and four top-25 players in the Official World Golf Ranking. Last year, Daniel Berger, at 14-1 odds, picked up his fourth PGA Tour victory by two shots over Maverick McNealy.

One of the shortest stops on Tour, Spyglass plays the longest of the three courses at approximately 7,000 yards, while Pebble Beach checks in just over 6,800 yards and Monterey typically plays the easiest of the three. Although we've seen various playing styles lead to victory here, the premium is on approach play, as players will often have wedges in hand and will also need to take advantage of the scoring opportunities on the numerous par-5s that are reachable in two.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 8:00 PM ET Tuesday.

Pro-Am Pros

The following five golfers, with a minimum of eight rounds played, have the lowest scoring average at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am since 2017.

If you're looking for a horse for the course, there aren't many -- at any tournament -- that fit the bill than Day at Pebble Beach. Over his last seven appearances, Day ran off seven consecutive top-12 finishes. He played great at Torrey Pines -- another place he's historically played well at -- and recorded a T3 finish, but it's been well over a year since he's turned in back-to-back top-10 finishes and he's being given a lot of respect by the experts, with 18-1 odds to win. One of the trendiest picks this week will be McNealy, who has been one of my favorite players to back lately. In addition to his runner-up finish here last year, he used his local knowledge to finish in a share of fifth in 2020, and he comes in playing some of the best golf of his career. As a result, his odds to win -- 22-1 -- are his lowest since his Korn Ferry Tour days. It should not be a surprise at all if he winds up in contention over the weekend.

Approach Aces

These players, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.

Last year's champion, Berger, has evolved into one of the most consistent and best golfers on Tour. A big reason for that is his iron play -- he led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach at the Tournament of Champions -- and he doesn't have any notable weakness in his game. Last year at Pebble Beach he gained strokes in every category, and he is on the short list of players likely to take home the trophy this time around. Another player trending in the right direction is Hoge, who has turned it up another level since the start of last year's playoffs. Over a 13-tournament stretch, he made 10 cuts and notched three top-5s, including a recent runner-up at The American Express. He's far from the longest player on Tour, but that won't hold him back much at all, and he is a potential dark horse at 60-1.

Outright Picks

Matt Fitzpatrick (28-1)

Fitzpatrick is a little under the radar in what will be his first start of the year. He did win overseas this fall, and his odds seem too high in an event without the strongest field. He doesn't have much course history to draw from, but as a precision player and exceptional putter, the value is too good to pass up.

Mito Pereira (40-1)

Pereira has made it clear he is an excellent ball striker, gaining 1.16 strokes per round off the tee and on approach combined since his promotion to the PGA Tour last summer. Since then, he has reeled off four top-6 finishes over his first eight starts on Tour. It seems like he's ready to win sooner rather than later.

Brandt Snedeker (80-1)

At a place where we've seen some surprise winners over the years, it's not a bad idea to look further down the board, where we find a two-time winner of this event in Snedeker. Although it has been over three years since his last victory, we just saw Hudson Swafford -- also a long shot -- snap out of a slump and take home trophy at an event he previously won. Snedeker remain a quality target at shorter courses that require you to putt it well.

Top-10 Wagers

Joel Dahmen (13-2)

Dahmen has missed a couple cuts in a row, but with that often comes value, and he's priced too low, even behind some inferior golfers. He's one of the most accurate drivers on Tour and ranks top-50 this season in both SG: Off-the-Tee and Approach. He narrowly missed a top-10 here two years ago and has a pair of top-10 results since August.

Greyson Sigg (13-2)

Sigg is a Korn Ferry Tour graduate who is making his first start at this event. He has held his own during his rookie season, displaying solid accuracy off the tee while gaining 0.29 shots per round on approach. He's made three cuts in a row and has gained strokes from tee to green in five straight tournaments. He is knocking on the door of a top-10 and may just need a good putting week.

Joseph Bramlett (12-1)

In a field that isn't incredibly deep there could be some surprise top-10 finishers, and we'll focus on Bramlett, who has made both of his cuts here and posted a best finish of T18 in 2020. The bomber doesn't fit the typical mold here, but at these odds I'm willing to take the chance that his ball striking shines and he takes full advantage of the par-5s.

Head-to-Head Matchups

Seamus Power (-110) over Jordan Spieth

Coming off a 2-0 H2H week at the Farmers Insurance Open, I'll look to keep the momentum going with someone who has plenty of momentum in Power. As risky as it may be to fade Spieth at a place he's played well at, he hasn't looked like himself in several months. I'll going with the reliable Power, who has recorded four straight top-15 results.

Ryan Palmer (-130) over Troy Merritt

No need to overthink this one: Palmer is the much better golfer and I'm fine laying a little more juice because of that. He's missed just one cut this season despite ranking 181st in SG: Putting. Merritt's last top-10 came at the beginning of July, and he often has to rely on his short game to bail out his mediocre ball striking.