DraftKings PGA: FedEx St. Jude Classic

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

Tournament Preview

First things first: There have been numerous changes since the field was first announced on Friday, following U.S. Open qualifying on Monday. Check and recheck your lineup submissions before Thursday. (In fact, Luke Donald withdrew on Wednesday, necessitating updates to the low-risk lineup and value picks below. Further, all the withdrawals have affected some of the winning odds.)

One of the venerable stops on the PGA Tour, Memphis traditionally falls victim to placement a week before the Open. But this year, with the concentrated schedule to accommodate the Olympics, it's much worse. Only five of the top-50 golfers in the world are entered, meaning ownership of that quintet and a few other golfers should be inordinately high. The five are 2012 St. Jude champion Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Phil Mickelson, Daniel Berger and 2013 champ Harris English. The tournament has been played since 1989 at TPC Southwind, a par-70 track with doglegs on half its holes and far more water balls than any PGA Tour course. Yes, even more than TPC Sawgrass. Last year, Southwind was among the top-10 most difficult of the 52 courses played. Historically, driving distance and accuracy leaders have not been important in determining a winner. Instead, the second shot is often a harbinger. Getting on the green and play around the green more often than not decide things here. The par-3, 162-yard 11th hole is reminiscent of the 17th at Sawgrass, and it played to a 3.146 scoring average last year. Fun fact: Al Geiberger shot the first competitive 59 in tour history at this event in 1977, when it was played at nearby Colonial Country Club. Weather-wise, temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid-90s with little chance of rain and little wind. In other words, a scorcher.

Key Stats to Winning at TPC Southwind
• Greens in regulation
• Scrambling
• Proximity to the hole
• Putting average

Past Champions
2015 - Fabian Gomez
2014 - Ben Crane
2013 - Harris English
2012 - Dustin Johnson
2011 - Harrison Frazar
2010 - Lee Westwood
2009 - Brian Gay
2008 - Justin Leonard
2007 - Woody Austin
2006 - Jeff Maggert

Champion's Profile:

With the weak field, it surely will be hard to find the champion. But what we do know is that Gomez and English were very strong in greens in regulation, proximity to the hole and scrambling. Crane did not have strong numbers for GIR and proximity, but he was second in scrambling and, more importantly, putted out of his mind that week -- yes, great putting can offset pretty much any analysis and forecasting. Normally, with smaller-than-average greens and undulating putting surfaces, avoiding bogeys is a sound mindset for a golfer. Further complicating lineup selection, six of the past 10 winners have not won anywhere on tour since.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)

DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Dustin Johnson - $12,800 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 6-1)
Phil Mickelson - $11,300 (12-1)
Brooks Koepka - $11,100 (12-1)
Ryan Palmer - $10,800 (20-1)
Daniel Berger - $10,100 (25-1)

DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Harris English - $9,900 (20-1)
Colt Knost - $9,700 (30-1)
Charles Howell III - $9,400 (40-1)
Kyle Reifers - $9,200 (40-1)

DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Chad Campbell - $7,800 (60-1)
Retief Goosen - $7,600 (60-1)
David Toms - $7,600 (80-1)
Tim Wilkinson - $7,200 (Field, 3-2)

DraftKings Long-Shot Values

Camilo Villegas - $6,900 (100-1)
Zac Blair - $6,800 (Field, 3-2)

Aaron Baddeley - $6,500 (Field, 3-2)
John Merrick - $6,200 (Field, 3-2)

MY PICKS THIS WEEK

Lower-Risk Cash Game Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Colt Knost - $9,700
Charles Howell III - $9,400
Kyle Reifers - $9,200
Retief Goosen - $7,600
Tim Wilkinson - $7,200
Camilo Villegas - $6,900

We're not sure whether having Knost as our top guy is low-risk or nuts. But we all know he's having a terrific season and was 12th last year at Southwind. He's surely to be highly owned, as will Howell. Amid a renaissance season, Howell made five straight cuts in Memphis before last year's MC. Reifers has missed only six cuts in 23 starts, and has three straight top-10s. On the other hand, he's 0-for-3 in cuts in Memphis. Goosen is still a crafty player, especially around the green. Wilkinson is no longer the sleeper he once was, his scrambling, short game and cut efficiency taking notice. Villegas is the week's horse for the course, making the cut nine of the past 10 years, with seven top-10s.

Higher-Risk Tournament Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Phil Mickelson - $11,300
Ryan Palmer - $10,800
Russell Henley - $8,500
Henrik Norlander - $6,500
Aaron Baddeley - $6,500
John Merrick - $6,200

Is there anything more high-risk than picking Mickelson? Not really, but he is on form and has played this track well: third last year, 11th the year before that and runner-up to English in 2013. His ownership will be high, but his cost will force gamers to get creative down below. Palmer also should see high ownership, having made four straight Southwind cuts with two top-5s. Henley is neither on form nor a horse for the course in this decidedly down year for him, but he continues to play decently on and around the greens. Cejka is in the top-50 or close to it in three key stats: GIR, proximity and, especially scrambling. He was top-25 here last year. Baddeley is a big gamble, as he's neither playing well or historically good at Southwind. But he remains one of the tour's best putters and his third overall in strokes gained-around the green. And he's among the best scramblers. Merrick has made seven straight cuts at Southwind.