DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: Arnold Palmer Invitational

ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL

Purse: $6.2M
Winner's Share: $1,116,000
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Orlando, FLA.
Course: Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Yardage: 7,419
Par: 72

Tournament Preview

The last event of the venerable Florida swing will see Arnold Palmer play host at the challenging Bay Hill layout. Rory McIlroy is making his first appearance at Bay Hill and will join 14 others in the top 30 of the world rankings, which includes Bubba Watson, Henrik Stenson, Adam Scott and Jason Day. Tiger Woods told Arnold Palmer last week he will be absent from the event he's won on eight occasions, purportedly targeting the Masters as his next start. Much like last week's Valspar Championship, Bay Hill plays tough with four longer par-3s, but unlike Innisbrook has manageable rough and scoring-friendly par-5s. The iconic kidney-shaped 18th green will draw plenty of crowds as well as double bogeys but will nonetheless create ample drama as the leaders nervously pick a club to carry the lurking pond in the final round.

Key Stats to Winning at Bay Hill

• Par-5 Scoring
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Greens in Regulation

Last Decade of Arnold Palmer Invitational Champions:

2014 - Matt Every
2013 - Tiger Woods
2012 - Tiger Woods
2011 - Martin Laird
2010 - Ernie Els
2009 - Tiger Woods
2008 - Tiger Woods
2007 - Vijay Singh
2006 - Rod Pampling
2005 - Kenny Perry

Tiger Woods litters the list of champions with four wins in the last decade, evoking a trend of great ball strikers and a surprise winner last year in Matt Every. With little rough to deal with, the course will play quite similarly to Doral from two weeks ago, favoring bombers who hit plenty of greens and can take advantage of the scorable par-5 holes. Non-bombers can still compete at Bay Hill but will need a hot putter and some precise long irons to find the first page of the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard - $50K Salary Cap)

DraftKings Tier 1 Values

Rory McIlroy - $15,100 (Odds: 11/2)
Henrik Stenson - $12,500 (10/1)
Bubba Watson - $12,300 (11/1)

DraftKings Tier 2 Values

Hideki Matsuyama - $9,600 (Odds: 28/1)
Brooks Koepka - $9,400 (28/1)
Harris English - $9,100 (33/1)
J.B. Homes - $8,900 (40/1)
Brandt Snedeker - $8,600 (40/1)

DraftKings Tier 3 Values

Paul Casey - $8,400 (Odds: 50/1)
Sean O'Hair - $8,200 (50/1)
Webb Simpson - $8,100 (50/1)
Shane Lowry - $7,800 (55/1)
Charles Howell III - $7,600 (55/1)
Zach Johnson - $7,200 (66/1)

DraftKings Long-Shot Values

Kevin Chappell - $6,600 (Odds: 90/1)
Daniel Summerhays - $6,500 (80/1)
Kevin Streelman - $6,400 (100/1)
Brian Harman - $5,800 (125/1)
Chris Stroud - $5,200 (100/1)
Matt Every - $5,200 (150/1)
Sam Saunders - $5,100 (150/1)

WHO I'M ROLLING WITH THIS WEEK

Lower-Risk Cash Game Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)

Henrik Stenson - $12,500
Brooks Koepka - $9,400
Harris English - $9,100
Brandt Snedeker - $8,600
Matt Every - $5,200
Chris Stroud - $5,200

Stenson not only has a history of success at Bay Hill but is coming off consecutive top-5 finishes the last two weeks making him the safest starter in the top tier. Brooks Koepka and Harris English both possess the youthfulness and length to navigate the scorable par-5s at Bay Hill. Snedeker won at Pebble Beach a month ago and was top 10 at Bay Hill last year. To round out a surefire lineup are last year's champion Matt Every and veteran Chris Stroud, both of whom enjoyed three top-35s at Arnie's place the last three years.

Higher-Risk Tournament Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)

Rory McIlroy - $15,100
Bubba Watson - $12,300
Daniel Summerhays - $6,500
Brian Harman - $5,800
Chris Stroud - $5,200
Sam Saunders - $5,100

With about 120 players in the field and 70 and ties still making the cut, there's opportunity to take some risks with lower-tier options since a higher percentage of the field will make the cut (typical event is 45-50 percent making the cut, this week is about 60 percent). Taking Rory at a premium is likely a contrarian move as many will fade the outlier price tag and inexperience at the course. The reality is that McIlroy can win anywhere, and his game fits this course like a glove, much like Bubba Watson's so the 1-2 combo of two top-5 players may be a nice recipe that won't be highly replicated. Daniel Summerhays has quietly been on a run of consecutive top-20s in Florida, and Brian Harman posted a T11 at the Honda Classic two weeks ago but likely will be low-owned this week. Chris Stroud is a great value pick who finds himself in both of my lineups. Finally, Arnold's grandson Sam Saunders is more than just the heir of the King; he nearly won in Puerto Rico two weeks ago and followed it up with a T24 at the Valspar last week, signaling he's clearly starting to break off into his own successful career at age 27.