This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Courses:
- Pebble Beach (6,972 yards, par 72) - Host Course
- Spyglass Hill (7,041 yards, par 72)
- Monterey Peninsula Country Club (6,957 yards, par 71)
Purse: $8,700,000
Winner: $1,566,000 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is one of the most unique events on the PGA Tour calendar and dates back to 1937 where entertainer Bing Crosby decided to host the first National Pro-Am. Sam Snead won the first edition back when it was just 18 holes. It became a 72-hole event in 1958 and has featured many notable celebrities over the years. After the event used just two courses in 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Monterey Peninsula Country Club rejoins the rotation in 2022. Much like The American Express two weeks ago, the 156-man field will play a round at Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill, and Monterey before a 54-hole cut is made and the remaining top-60 and ties play the final round at Pebble Beach.
The field for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am has taken a bit of a hit over the last few years. Some of that could be due to the amateur aspect with tour players not wanting to play six-hour rounds and some of that could also be due to the scheduling conflict from a certain controversial tournament in Saudi with several top players receiving hefty appearance fees. Nevertheless, there is still no more stunning course to watch on TV than Pebble Beach and we've had many tournaments over the years here come down to the wire on one of the best finishing stretches in golf.
Daniel Berger will look to defend his title this week after he shot a seven-under 65 in the final round last year, including a 30-foot eagle putt to win by two. Joining him will be the top ranked player in the field and reigning FedExCup Champion Patrick Cantlay along with AT&T ambassador and 2017 Pebble Beach Pro-Am Champion Jordan Spieth. Fellow Dallas native Will Zalatoris is also in the field and looking to bounce back after a heartbreaking playoff loss last week to Luke List at Torrey Pines. Major champions Justin Rose and Jason Day are both looking for their first PGA Tour wins since 2019 and 2018, respectively.
There is expected to be plenty of sunshine this week over the Monterey Peninsula. Temperatures should top out in the low 60's each of the four tournaments rounds, but the morning starters may be a bit chilly. Precipitation is not expected to fall at all during the week, which will hopefully mean a bit firmer of a test that we have seen in past years. The lack of wind should keep scores pretty low, however.
Recent Champions
2021 – Daniel Berger (-18)
2020 – Nick Taylor (-19)
2019 – Phil Mickelson (-19)
2018 – Ted Potter Jr. (-17)
2017 – Jordan Spieth (-19)
2016 – Vaughn Taylor (-17)
2015 – Brandt Snedeker (-22)
2014 – Jimmy Walker (-11)
2013 – Brandt Snedeker (-19)
2012 – Phil Mickelson (-17)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach
- GIR Percentage
- SG: Putting
- Driving Accuracy
Champion's Profile
Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill feature some of the smallest greens players will face all year on the PGA Tour. That being said, you can beat that iron play will need to be at a premium this week. These three courses are also among the shortest on the scorecard anywhere we go. We will see many players throttle back off the tees with accuracy being far more important than length this week. It is a whole new game then what was put on display at Torrey Pines a week ago. Pebble Beach features poa annua greens as well, but they do seem to roll a bit smoother than Torrey Pines South. Because of the amateurs, the greens will run on the slow end for PGA Tour standards which should allow the professionals to be very aggressive. Because of the size of the greens, almost any birdie putt should be one players think they have a chance to make. With wind not expecting to be a major factor, Monterey Peninsula should play as the easiest course followed by Pebble Beach and then the extremely narrow Spyglass Hill being the hardest.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Patrick Cantlay ($12,300)
The defending FedExCup Champion in off to a good start in 2022, notching a solo fourth at Kapalua and a solo ninth at The AmEx. Cantlay has made the cut in all five of his starts at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and has notched three top-11 finishes. There might not be another player in the game today who is as well-rounded through the bag as Cantlay.
Jordan Spieth ($11,500)
Spieth missed the cut for the second straight year at Torrey Pines, a course that does not fit is game at all. The rotation of courses this week very much lines up with Spieth's skill set of strong iron play and sinking a lot of putts. That's a large part of the reason why he has scored a win, five top-10s, and eight top-25s in nine career starts at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Jason Day ($11,300)
Day has one of the best single-event records without a win as anyone at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He is 12-for-12 with eight top-seven finishes and two other top-15s. Day is also coming off his best PGA Tour finish since his last win back in 2018 at last week's Farmers Insurance Open when he ended up in a share of third place just one shot out of a playoff. He putts the greens in this rotation of courses as good as anyone.
Maverick McNealy ($10,900)
McNealy finished runner-up to Daniel Berger last year in this event and was T5 here in 2020 as well. McNealy owns just two finishes outside the top 30 in eight starts this season. He is gaining strokes in every category and ranks fourth in scoring average this season. The 26-year-old feels primed for that breakthrough first PGA Tour victory sooner rather than later.
Longer Shots with Value
Lucas Glover ($9,400)
The 42-year-old remains one of the top ball strikers on Tour. This season he ranks 34th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 30th in SG: Approach, fourth in driving accuracy, and ninth in GIR percentage. Glover noched a top-5 finish a couple weeks ago at Waialae and finished top-11 in two of his last three starts in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Russell Knox ($9,100)
Knox is another very accurate ball striker. This season he ranks 24th in SG: Approach, 30th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 15th in driving accuracy, 10th in GIR percentage, and 10th in proximity to the hole. The Scot thrives in the typical conditions we get this time of year on the Monterey Peninsula, which is why he has posted top-15s here three of the last four years.
Michael Thompson ($9,000)
The 36-year-old has certainly found something this season. He is now 7-for-8 with a trio of top-15 finishes, with two of those coming since the calendar flipped to 2022. His iron and short game play led him to a T5 at Waialae and a T11 at Torrey Pines. This will be Thompson's 10th start at Pebble Beach where he owns a pair of top-20's.
Matthew NeSmith ($8,800)
NeSmith has been one of the more underrated irons players over the last couple seasons. Last campaign he ranked 11th in SG: Approach and fourth GIR percentage. The putter has always held him back, but last week he ranked 12th on similar poa annua surfaced greens at Torrey Pines. NeSmith has finished T11 and T16 in two career starts at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
This is probably the shallowest field we have had in 2022. There are a lot of strong options above $10,500, but once you get below that the strength of player takes a bit of a nose-dive, especially when you compare it to as strong of a field as we had a week ago at the Farmers Insurance Open. As I mentioned in the top of the Champion's Profile, the key this week is really going to be iron play. These greens, specifically at Pebble, are incredibly small targets. If you are off in that department you will be left with a lot of really tough up-and-downs. Some cheap options not mentioned above that stand out are Doc Redman ($8,200), Ryan Armour ($8,100), and Chesson Hadley ($7,600).
