This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches
Course: PGA National Champion Course (7,147 yards, par 71)
Purse: $9,000,000
Winner: $1,620,000 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
The PGA Tour heads to PGA National to kick off the Florida Swing. Before you dismiss this change in locale, consider that the courses they will be playing in Florida are much different than the ones out west -- and it's not just the design. The main difference is actually the grass. Out west they primarily use bentgrass or Poa annua, while in Florida and most states down south it's Bermudagrass. It might not seem like grass could make such a difference, but it does. If you've played on both you know the difference, and it can be quite shocking if you aren't prepared for the differences.
The Cognizant Classic dates back to 1972, when Tom Weiskopf outdueled Jack Nicklaus for the first title of what was then called the Inverrary Classic, held at Inverrary Country Club. It's fitting that Nicklaus played a part in the first edition of this event, because it's now held at PGA National Resort, which is a Nicklaus-designed course.
The grass isn't the only major change we will see this week. Another big one is the introduction of water -- and lots of it. Sure, there are courses on the West Coast with water, but in most cases it's easily avoidable, that's not the case here, and staying out of the wet stuff will be top of mind for every golfer in the field.
The signature holes on this course are referred to as "The Bear Trap" in honor of Nicklaus. This stretch -- Nos. 15-17 -- that brings an end to every round is quite daunting, as water is a major factor in every decision made. Great rounds can be ruined very quickly during this stretch, and it takes everything a golfer has to simply survive.
The Cognizant Classic, known as The Honda Classic in recent years, is not a Signature Event, which means the field will be less than ideal, but there is some star power at the top, which could make for an interesting weekend … if the stars cooperate.
Chris Kirk will be defending, and last year's runner-up and Rookie of the Year Eric Cole will also be in attendance. The big draw, however, is Rory McIlroy, who has had a lot of success in Florida over the years -- particularly in this event, in which he won in 2012 and placed runner-up in 2014. Cameron Young is another big name taking part, as is Matt Fitzpatrick.
Recent Champions
2023 – Chris Kirk (-14)
2022 – Sepp Straka (-10)
2021 – Matt Jones (-12)
2020 – Sungjae Im (-6)
2019 – Keith Mitchell (-9)
2018 – Justin Thomas (-8)
2017 – Rickie Fowler (-12)
2016 - Adam Scott (-9)
2015 – Padraig Harrington (-6)
2014 – Russell Henley (-8)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach
- Approach Proximity 175-225 yards
- SG: Putting
Champion's Profile
PGA National is not a long course, but what it lacks in length it makes up for in difficulty. PGA National is annually one of the toughest tracks on the PGA Tour ,and that is due to the tight fairways -- and of course, the water. This is not a course for the timid player. If you fear the water, you've already lost. Assertive shots with purpose are the only ones that work here.
The weather is supposed to be great, so that's one less thing the golfers will have to worry about. Then again, it doesn't mean this track will be easy by any means. In order to win, the irons must be locked in. That's at the top of the list. The fairways are tight as well, so accuracy both off the tee and to the greens will be of utmost importance. Putting is always important, but it takes a back seat to the approach shots this week.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Rory McIlroy ($12,400)
There's a hefty price to pay for McIlroy, but his upside is unmatched. He has a pair of big-time results, and while he's had some poor finishes he's clearly the best player in the field. If he's on, he's got a good chance to win. He will be extremely popular, so if you're feeling bold you could fade him and try to gain ground on the competition that way, but I wouldn't recommend it.
Russell Henley ($11,400)
Henley curiously didn't play here the past two years, because prior to that he played well here when he showed up. Henley has missed just one cut here in nine starts, and he's posted three top-10s along the way, including a win in 2014 and a T3 in 2021. He has only carded one top-10 this year, but he hasn't missed a cut either. He's close enough that a return to this course might be the extra kick he needs to find his best form.
Eric Cole ($10,800)
Cole finished runner-up here last year and is off to a good start this y ear. It makes sense that he played well here in 2023, as he ranked 18th in SG: Approach last season. Since the start of the new campaign he ranks 29th in the same category. Cole has proven to be mentally strong since joining the PGA Tour, so don't expect him to be intimidated by "The Bear Trap."
The Middle Tier
Shane Lowry ($10,500)
Lowry is a perfect 6-for-6 when it comes to making cuts in this event, and while he didn't get much done on the weekend in his earlier starts here, he turned that around over the past two years. Lowry finished top-5 in his two most recent appearances at PGA National, and while his form isn't great, a return to Florida might be just what he needs.
Chris Kirk ($10,100)
Kirk's form is not very good, but his lack of success has not been due to his ball striking, but rather the putter. Kirk ranks 126th in SG: Putting this season, and while that's a problem it's something that can turn on a dime if he gets hot. He's 21st in SG: Approach to the Green and 25th in SG: Off-the-Tee, so he's giving himself chances. He knows how to get around this course, as he proved this past year.
Matthieu Pavon ($10,000)
While I generally lean on experience, I make exceptions for golfers that have everything else going for them. In this case, Pavon has both the form needed to win and the statistical profile, namely, SG: Approach to the Green, a stat that he currently leads across the entire Tour. He's also solid off the tee (35th) and a pretty good putter (3rd). It's likely that Pavon is just on a heater and will slow down soon, but you might as well look his direction until he does.
The Long Shots
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,900)
Bezuidenhout has the profile to succeed here, so it's a little surprising that his best effort was a T25 in 2022. With that said, he's made the cut in both starts at PGA National, so he's giving himself chances to succeed. His form is pretty good, but what gives me the most hope is his ball striking, which has been great this season. Bezuidenhout enters this week 3rd in SG: Approach. If he keeps that up, he will make the weekend and maybe make some noise Sunday.
Robert MacIntyre ($8,400)
I've followed MacIntyre for many years, and one thing he is not is consistent, but that's not always what you're looking for in a format like this, right? MacIntyre runs very hot and cold, and if this past week is any indication, it looks like he's running hot right now. This will be MacIntyre's first start in this event, which is a little scary, but considering he is currently 26th in SG: Approach, I think he will be just fine.
Lee Hodges ($8,200)
Hodges is not off to a good start this season, but he posted his best finish to date in his most recent start, and he has a knack for getting around this course in style. With the results we have seen from Hodges this season, it's no surprise that his stats aren't great either, but the fact remains that he plays well at PGA National every year. By every year, I mean the two times he's played here, which resulted in a T14 and a T9.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
I mentioned earlier that one way to go this week is to fade McIlroy ($12,400) because he's bound to be extremely popular. While I did bring up the idea, I'm going to squash it right now. There aren't a lot of great options at the top of the list, so you might as well anchor your team with McIlroy and find a way to differentiate yourself from the competition in another area. One way to do that would be to avoid the other big names at the top of the list like Young and Fitzpatrick. I feel comfortable playing all three long shots mentioned above -- Bezuidenhout ($8,900), MacIntyre ($8,400) and Hodges ($8,200) -- which would then leave plenty of room for some pricier options like Pavon ($10,000) and Henley ($11,400).
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