This article is part of our PGA Tour Stats Review series.
This week is the AT&T Byron Nelson, the event in which Jordan Spieth first became known by a wide audience at 16 years old and where defending champion Steven Bowditch got to relive his wedding (he got married on the 18th green) last year. Here's this week's stats column:
Spieth's Putting Woes
Last week's missed cut for Spieth at The Players was ugly in many ways, with the main culprit being his usually-reliable putter. For the two rounds he was 122nd in strokes gained-putting, 104th in putting average and 117th in average putting distance made. I -- and I'm not a teacher -- thought his lines weren't square to each other at address, which is an easy way to miss putts and also an easy fix. The good news is that the missed cut gave him extra time to work with Cameron McCormick, and they were seen working on his putting earlier this week. He's also struggled at this event in recent years. I'd be careful about picking him but if you're a DFS player or in a league that can change by day and see his putting numbers improve, I'd then move in.
The Stat
Bowditch used a strokes gained-putting ranking of 4.432 to help win the title, and on greens that can be treacherous to putt, it's a good stat to delve into this week.
However let's first touch on Bowditch, who has had an extremely poor 2015-2016 PGA Tour season, and that's being kind. He had that
This week is the AT&T Byron Nelson, the event in which Jordan Spieth first became known by a wide audience at 16 years old and where defending champion Steven Bowditch got to relive his wedding (he got married on the 18th green) last year. Here's this week's stats column:
Spieth's Putting Woes
Last week's missed cut for Spieth at The Players was ugly in many ways, with the main culprit being his usually-reliable putter. For the two rounds he was 122nd in strokes gained-putting, 104th in putting average and 117th in average putting distance made. I -- and I'm not a teacher -- thought his lines weren't square to each other at address, which is an easy way to miss putts and also an easy fix. The good news is that the missed cut gave him extra time to work with Cameron McCormick, and they were seen working on his putting earlier this week. He's also struggled at this event in recent years. I'd be careful about picking him but if you're a DFS player or in a league that can change by day and see his putting numbers improve, I'd then move in.
The Stat
Bowditch used a strokes gained-putting ranking of 4.432 to help win the title, and on greens that can be treacherous to putt, it's a good stat to delve into this week.
However let's first touch on Bowditch, who has had an extremely poor 2015-2016 PGA Tour season, and that's being kind. He had that prolonged run of consecutive rounds in the 80s in the spring, and is on a run of five straight missed cuts and six out of his last seven. With a best finish this season of T10 coming at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions way back in January at expansive Kapalua and ranking no better than 99th in any statistical category (he's 99th in strokes gained – putting, 201st in strokes gained-tee to green and 200th in strokes gained-total), we do not recommend Bowditch this week or any time in the near future.
Here are the leaders in that category playing this week:
Adam Hadwin - .773 strokes gained on the greens per round
Brian Harman - .757
Aaron Baddeley - .661
Tim Wilkinson - .658
Jonas Blixt - .621
If you're looking for a strong stats contender who probably won't win but will be consistent, Harman is your guy. This season he has just one top-10 but 13 finishes in 19 starts inside the money, including four top-25s. Stats wise he's 63rd in total driving and 75th in driving accuracy along with sixth in strokes gained-putting. As I said, not flashy but if you need someone who is consistent in an area of the game, that's Harman.
Hadwin, the Canadian who so many have such high hopes for, hasn't gotten a win yet but does have a T6 at the CareerBuilder earlier this year and has 12 made cuts in 17 starts and a 90th place position right now on the FedEx Cup points list. Ranking 76th in driving accuracy and 90th in greens in regulation to go along with his fifth in strokes gained-putting, Hadwin is another strong contender if you're in a stats based league that could be a nice pickup.
The Field
The field also includes Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, Keegan Bradley, Jimmy Walker, Jason Dufner, Zach Johnson, Ernie Els, Harris English, recent winner James Hahn, Charley Hoffman, Jerry Kelly, Brooks Koepka, Brandt Snedeker and more.
Three golfers I want to highlight here: Dustin, Kelly and Koepka. First, with all credit to a fellow tweeter named Brian Rosenwald, Koepka is 60th in par-5 scoring average. That's just unacceptable for someone as long as he is. Couple that with being 164th in par-3 scoring average and you can see how his consistency issues have shown up at the wrong time. All that adds up to a 103rd place proximity to the hole rank. That's not good enough and I don't recommend him until it improves.
Kelly is amazing. The dude is nearing 50 and yet contends week after week after week on the PGA Tour. At The Players he was second in greens in regulation and seventh in strokes gained-tee to green. And this is what he does week after week; just consistent ball striking. We recommend him this week.
Johnson, meanwhile, is hard to read. He looks great in stretches (six top-10s) and just plain mediocre (no finish better than third) in others. Winless in 2015-16 he ranks fourth in driving distance but 171st in driving accuracy, 65th in greens in regulation and eighth in strokes gained-tee to green, 37th in strokes gained-putting but seventh in strokes gained-total. If you need consistency and dependability on your team, Dustin Johnson is not the player for you.
The Weather
After rain on Thursday it'll be sunny and in the 80s with a fairly light wind the rest of the week.
