This article is part of our PGA Tour Stats Review series.
This is a stats article, not a name article, so I'll spare you the thought pieces on the evolution of golf tournament names and what historic events should be called when the sponsor changes. All you need to know is that this week is Colonial -- now called the Dean & Deluca Invitational, and here's our stats thread.
Spieth has the Rights
Well, he fixed the putting problem, like most expected. The problem Jordan Spieth failed to fix, however, was his ball striking, having a case of the rights and constantly playing out of trouble all week last week at the AT&T Byron Nelson. As someone who has had a poor ball-striking start to his 2016 season, I can personally attest that what Jordan did last week to stay in contention at the Nelson was fantastic. The stats show it: he was T55 in driving accuracy (only those who make the cut get a ranking), hitting only 53.57 percent of his fairways, while finishing T30 in strokes gained-tee to green. And even with a poor Sunday where he lost 3.170 strokes to the field on the greens left him 21st in the strokes gained - putting category for the week, it was still a pretty darn good performance with a balky game. That said, though, until he fixes the rights and has better control over his ball, I'm recommending against picking him. He finished second here last year, I know, and can easily turn it on, but I'm wary.
The
This is a stats article, not a name article, so I'll spare you the thought pieces on the evolution of golf tournament names and what historic events should be called when the sponsor changes. All you need to know is that this week is Colonial -- now called the Dean & Deluca Invitational, and here's our stats thread.
Spieth has the Rights
Well, he fixed the putting problem, like most expected. The problem Jordan Spieth failed to fix, however, was his ball striking, having a case of the rights and constantly playing out of trouble all week last week at the AT&T Byron Nelson. As someone who has had a poor ball-striking start to his 2016 season, I can personally attest that what Jordan did last week to stay in contention at the Nelson was fantastic. The stats show it: he was T55 in driving accuracy (only those who make the cut get a ranking), hitting only 53.57 percent of his fairways, while finishing T30 in strokes gained-tee to green. And even with a poor Sunday where he lost 3.170 strokes to the field on the greens left him 21st in the strokes gained - putting category for the week, it was still a pretty darn good performance with a balky game. That said, though, until he fixes the rights and has better control over his ball, I'm recommending against picking him. He finished second here last year, I know, and can easily turn it on, but I'm wary.
The Stat
The defending champion is Chris Kirk, who had a strokes gained-putting rank of 1.903 -- second overall -- en route to victory last year. But the stat I want to focus on is driving accuracy.
Colonial is an old-style golf course, and to win there you have to give yourself opportunities to hit it close. This year, the tour average for driving accuracy is 60.42 percent. Last year, Kirk hit an above average 63.89 percent of the fairways.
But before that, let's look at Kirk himself. Kirk's had an up-and-down stretch since this win last year, getting hurt in the latter part of the year and missing some time before helping the U.S. win the Presidents Cup. For the 2015-2016 season he has two top-10s and seven top-25s in 16 starts but has no flashy stats rankings, as he's 52nd in strokes gained-tee to green and 59th in strokes gained-total with seemingly every other stat (except sand save percentage) over 100. We don't recommend him this week.
The driving accuracy leaders playing this week are:
Colt Knost - 73.46% of fairways hit
Jerry Kelly - 72.95%
Emiliano Grillo - 70.52%
Zac Blair - 70.17%
Jason Bohn - 70.09%
We like Knost this week as he's more than overdue to breakthrough for his first PGA Tour victory. He finished T4 last week, following up on a T3 at The Players, part of a 2015-16 PGA Tour season where he's had six top-25 finishes. To go along with being second in driving accuracy he's also 16th in strokes gained-putting, a combination that should lead him into the winner's circle on the PGA Tour shortly.
Here he is again, Jerry Kelly, who tied for 19th at The Players hitting 82.14 percent of his fairways, ranking first for the week. He was also second in greens in regulation and we recommend him for the week.
We are a tad concerned about Grillo, the rookie who won the first event of the season but hasn't done much since, with no top-10s since that win and just three top-25s in 2016. Take the Wells Fargo Championship, for example, where he tied for 61st. He ranked T4 in driving accuracy and T13 in greens in regulation but was 46th in strokes gained-putting and 58th in strokes gained-tee to green. The latter incorporates all parts of the game, but considering his driving and approach game stats, it must have been a short game issue that shot up that ranking. Until he finishes better on the weekend, we're wary of picking Grillo.
The Field
The field also includes Bryson DeChambeau (who has struggled lately), Jason Dufner, Tony Finau, Jim Furyk, Charley Hoffman, Zach Johnson, Smylie Kaufman, Matt Kuchar, who finished one shot out of a playoff last week, Kevin Kisner, Danny Lee, Louis Oosthuizen, Patrick Reed, Steve Stricker, and more.
Kuchar is a good fit for this event. While he's never won it, he finished second in 2013 and has the type of game that suits the venue, ranking 14th in strokes gained-tee to green. Kuchar is in a drought, and the stat to look for this week is his putting, as he's ranked 56th in strokes gained-putting for the season.
Furyk is in his third start back from the wrist surgery, missing the cut at Wells Fargo and finishing T35 at The Players. At TPC Sawgrass he was his usual accurate self, finishing the week T10 in driving accuracy. He was T46 in greens in regulation and T36 in strokes gained-putting. If both improve, I could see him contending this week, but I'm wary of picking him until we get a larger body of evidence to work with.
Johnson, meanwhile, is a Colonial champ -- he won here in both 2010 and 2012 -- and stats wise is a great fit for this course. However, he's had an un-Zach like start to the season, ranking 46th in driving accuracy, 77th in greens in regulation and a staggering 84th in strokes gained-putting. If you're wary, avoid him, though we recommend him because of past history and an inkling he'll play well this week.
The Weather
It is summer in Texas, so highs will be between 85-90 and a chance of thunderstorms every day, especially on Friday. It could get windy at times, too.
