This article is part of our PGA Tour Stats Review series.
This week is the final week of the PGA Tour regular season, the final week to qualify for the FedEx Cup Playoffs, the final regular season week to lock up your card, and the final week to qualify for the Web.com Tour Finals. But first, this stats thread begins with a look back at last week.
How Justin Won Gold
A ShotLink-like laser system was in place in Rio last week for the Men's Olympic Golf competition and while it may not have been quite as accurate as the system back in the states, it does give us a glimpse into why Justin Rose was so good in his path to beating Henrik Stenson on Sunday. For the week he ranked fourth in both strokes gained – off the tee and approach to the green and tenth in strokes gained – putting. He was also first in greens in regulation. His season-long stats on the PGA Tour in that department: fourth, 48th, 94th, and 34th, respectively. The improvement in those stats, especially in putting, helped him get the first gold medal in golf in 112 years for Great Britain.
Help, I Need a Job!
Of the guys on the FedEx Cup bubble right now there are two guys I really like from a stats perspective: Whee Kim, number 125, and Steve Marino, number 129. Kim got a big jump after tying for third at the John Deere Classic last week. Statistically he ranked fourth in strokes gained – approach to
This week is the final week of the PGA Tour regular season, the final week to qualify for the FedEx Cup Playoffs, the final regular season week to lock up your card, and the final week to qualify for the Web.com Tour Finals. But first, this stats thread begins with a look back at last week.
How Justin Won Gold
A ShotLink-like laser system was in place in Rio last week for the Men's Olympic Golf competition and while it may not have been quite as accurate as the system back in the states, it does give us a glimpse into why Justin Rose was so good in his path to beating Henrik Stenson on Sunday. For the week he ranked fourth in both strokes gained – off the tee and approach to the green and tenth in strokes gained – putting. He was also first in greens in regulation. His season-long stats on the PGA Tour in that department: fourth, 48th, 94th, and 34th, respectively. The improvement in those stats, especially in putting, helped him get the first gold medal in golf in 112 years for Great Britain.
Help, I Need a Job!
Of the guys on the FedEx Cup bubble right now there are two guys I really like from a stats perspective: Whee Kim, number 125, and Steve Marino, number 129. Kim got a big jump after tying for third at the John Deere Classic last week. Statistically he ranked fourth in strokes gained – approach to the green and 18th in strokes gained – putting. If he keeps that combination going Kim could be in the FedEx Cup Playoffs next week and playing at Bethpage Black.
Marino meanwhile, who has gone through golfing hell injury wise and made it back to the PGA Tour, also contended at Quad Cities last week, also finishing in a tie for eighth and picking up his second top-10 of the season. Marino, who ranks 164th in strokes gained – total for the season – speaking to his inconsistency -- ranked first in strokes gained – off the tee and 17th in strokes gained – approach to the green last week. Make some more putts – he ranked 51st and putting last week – and he may be able to lock up a place to play for next season and not have to go to the Web.com Tour Finals.
The Stat
Sedgefield Country Club is an old-style course that requires precise accuracy. Greens in regulation is a key stat. Here are the season-long leaders in the field this week:
Lucas Glover - 71.72%
Johnson Wagner - 70.05%
Stewart Cink - 69.69%
Thomas Aiken - 69.53%
Keegan Bradley - 69.52%
My pick here is Wagner, who contended a bit last week at the Deere as well. He tied for fifth, shot a Friday 64, and for the week ranked 15th in strokes gained – off the tee and seventh in strokes gained – approach to the green, both indicative of strong ball striking. He could be a really smart sleeper pick this week.
The Field
The field includes past champion Patrick Reed, Rickie Fowler – fresh off Rio and desperately trying to make the Ryder Cup team on points (the cut-off is after the Barclays) – Jim Furyk in his first appearance since shooting 58, Jimmy Walker in his first start since winning the PGA, Wesley Bryan in his last start to try and make the Playoffs (he basically needs to win), Jason Dufner, Luke Donald, Ernie Els, J.B. Holmes, Morgan Hoffmann who contended last week, Jerry Kelly, Kevin Kisner, Danny Lee, Ryan Moore, Brandt Snedeker and Justin Thomas.
This is a really nice field with tons of guys to choose from for picks. I recommend many and will highlight two: Moore and Reed.
Reed finally put it together on Sunday in Rio, ending up with a T11 finish, shooting 64 on Sunday, and ranking tenth in strokes gained – putting for the week. In that Sunday 64 he eight birdies against one bogey. If that form comes back to the states with him he should contend at a place where he's super comfortable.
Moore won the John Deere Classic last week for his first win on American soil in four years. He did it in impressive style, ranking second in strokes gained – approach to the green and eighth in strokes gained – putting, showing command of both aspects of his game. I'd look for that momentum to continue this week.
The Weather
It'll be hot, with temperatures near 90, a thunderstorm threat for Friday and Saturday, and fairly light winds. Consequently, I'd look for a fairly soft golf course.
